Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

A. LOW-COST ASSUMPTIONS

Table V.A3—Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index Increases, OASDI Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts
(Low-cost alternative, calendar years 2001-10)
Year
  OASDI
benefit increase 1
(percent)
  Increase in average
wage index 2
(percent)
  OASDI
contribution and
benefit base
Retirement earnings test exempt amounts
  Under age 65
  Age 65 or older 3
2001
2.8
4.9
$80,400
$10,680
$25,000
2002
2.6
4.8
85,200
11,280
30,000
2003
2.3
4.0
89,100
11,880
31,440
2004
2.3
4.0
93,600
12,360
33,000
2005
2.3
3.9
97,200
12,840
34,320
2006
2.3
3.9
101,100
13,440
35,640
2007
2.3
3.8
105,000
13,920
37,080
2008
2.3
3.7
109,200
14,520
38,520
2009
2.3
3.8
113,400
15,000
39,960
2010
2.3
3.8
117,600
15,600
41,400

1 Effective with benefits payable for December in each year.

2 Increase in the average wage index over the prior year. See table V.A2 for projected dollar amounts of the average wage index.

3 Public Law 106-182 eliminates the earnings test for workers attaining normal retirement age in 2000 or later. Exception: the test still applies to all months prior to attainment of the full retirement age in the calendar year the beneficiary attains full retirement age.

Source: Benefit increases based on assumed future growth in CPI; all other future figures based on average amount of total wages.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report low-cost set of assumptions.

Table V.A4—Selected OASDI Program Amounts Determined Under the
Automatic-Adjustment Provisions
(Low-cost alternative, calendar years 2001-10)
Year
AIME "bend points" in PIA formula
PIA "bend points" in maximum-family-benefit formula
  Earnings
required
for a
quarter
of coverage
  "Old-law"
contribution and
benefit base
  First
  Second
  First
  Second
  Third
2001
$561
$3,381
$717
$1,034
$1,349
$830
$59,700
2002
593
3,572
757
1,093
1,425
870
63,300
2003
621
3,745
794
1,146
1,495
910
66,300
2004
651
3,926
832
1,201
1,567
960
69,300
2005
677
4,082
865
1,249
1,629
1,000
72,300
2006
704
4,243
900
1,298
1,693
1,040
75,000
2007
731
4,409
935
1,349
1,760
1,080
78,000
2008
760
4,583
971
1,402
1,829
1,120
81,000
2009
789
4,757
1,008
1,456
1,899
1,160
84,000
2010
819
4,934
1,046
1,510
1,969
1,210
87,300

Source: Figures based on average amount of total wages.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report low-cost set of assumptions.

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December 26, 2001