2003 OASDI Trustees Report

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V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

The future income and cost of the OASDI program will depend on many demographic, economic, and program-specific factors. Trust fund income will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the working population and the level and distribution of earnings. Similarly, program cost will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the beneficiary population and the general level of benefits.

Basic assumptions are developed for several of these factors based on analysis of historical trends and conditions, and on expected future conditions. These include fertility, mortality, immigration, marriage, divorce, productivity, inflation, average earnings, unemployment, retirement, and disability incidence and termination. Other factors are projected using methods that reflect historical and expected future relationships to the basic assumptions. These include total population, life expectancy, labor force, gross domestic product, interest rates, and a myriad of program-specific factors. It should be noted that all factors included in any consistent set of assumptions are interrelated directly or indirectly. It is also important to note that these interrelationships can and do change over time.

The assumptions and methods used in this report are reexamined each year in light of recent experience and new information about future conditions, and are revised if warranted.

Because projections of these factors and their interrelationships are inherently uncertain, estimates are shown in this report on the basis of three plausible sets of assumptions, designated as intermediate (alternative II), low cost (alternative I), and high cost (alternative III). The intermediate set represents the Board's best estimate of the future course of the population and the economy. In terms of the net effect on the status of the OASDI program, the low cost is the most optimistic, and the high cost is the most pessimistic.

Although these three sets of demographic and economic assumptions have been developed using the best available information, the resulting estimates should be interpreted with care. The estimates are not intended to be specific predictions of the future financial status of the OASDI program, but rather, they are intended to be indicators of the expected trend and a reasonable range of future income and cost, under a variety of plausible demographic and economic conditions.

The values for each of the demographic, economic, and program-specific factors are assumed to move from recently experienced levels or trends, toward long-range ultimate values over the next 5 to 30 years. The ultimate values assumed after the first 5 to 30 years for both the demographic and the economic factors are intended to represent average experience or growth rates. Actual future values will exhibit fluctuations or cyclical patterns, as in the past.

The following sections discuss in abbreviated form the various assumptions and methods required to make the estimates of trust fund financial status which are the heart of this report.1 There are, of course, many interrelationships among these factors that make a sequential presentation somewhat misleading. Nevertheless, the following sections roughly follow the order used in building the trust fund estimates presented in chapter IV.

A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

The principal demographic assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and net immigration for the three alternatives are shown in table V.A1. The rationales for selecting these assumptions are discussed in the following three sections.

1. Fertility Assumptions

Fertility (birth rate) assumptions are developed by single year of age, from 14 to 49. They are applied to the total number of women in the population at each age, for all marital statuses.

Historically, fertility rates in the United States have fluctuated widely. The total fertility rate2 decreased from 3.3 children per woman after World War I to 2.1 during the Great Depression, rose to 3.7 in 1957, and then fell to 1.7 in 1976. After 1976, the total fertility rate began to rise again, reaching a level of 2.06 for 1991. Since then, the total fertility rate has remained fairly stable.

These variations in fertility rates have resulted from changes in many factors, including social attitudes, economic conditions, and the use of birth-control methods. Future fertility rates may be expected to remain close to recent levels. The recent historical and projected trends in certain population characteristics are consistent with a continued relatively low fertility rate. These trends include the rising percentages of women who have never married, of women who are divorced, and of young women who are in the labor force. Based on consideration of these factors, ultimate total fertility rates of 2.2, 1.95, and 1.7 children per woman were selected for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively. For each alternative, the total fertility rate is assumed to gradually trend from the estimated level of 2.05 for 2001, reaching the selected ultimate level for 2027 and later.

The ultimate total fertility rates are unchanged from those in last year's report. However, total fertility rates for the historical period since 1991 and for about the first 20 years of the projection period are lower than those in last year's report due to revisions in the underlying birth rates. Birth rates are computed by dividing the reported number of births by the estimated population of women based on the most recent census. The recently available 2000 Census showed a significantly higher population than the Census Bureau had earlier estimated. This higher census count required an increase in the number of women of child-bearing age after 1990, resulting in a revision downward in historical birth rates back to 1991. These lower recent birth rates cause the projected birth rates to start from a lower level, and to remain at lower levels through about 2025.

2. Mortality Assumptions

Mortality (death rate) assumptions are developed by single year of age, sex, and cause of death.

Over the last century, death rates in the United States have declined substantially, but at varying rates. Historical rates (for years 1900-2000) used in preparing this report were calculated for ages below 65 (and for all ages prior to 1968) using data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).3 For ages 65 and over, Medicare final data were used for years 1968 through 2000. Also used are death rates by cause of death produced by the NCHS for years 1979-2000.

The total age-sex-adjusted death rate4 declined at an average rate5 of 1.19 percent per year between 1900 and 2000. Between 1979 and 2000, the period for which death rates are analyzed by cause, the total age-sex-adjusted death rate (for all causes combined) declined at an average rate of 0.77 percent per year.

Historical death rates have declined more slowly for older ages than for the rest of the population. The age-sex-adjusted death rate for ages 65 and over declined at an average rate of 0.84 percent per year between 1900 and 2000. Between 1979 and 2000 the age-sex-adjusted death rate for these ages declined at an average annual rate of 0.55 percent.

Reductions in death rates have resulted from many factors, including increased medical knowledge and availability of health-care services, and improvements in sanitation and nutrition. Based on consideration of the expected rate of future progress in these and other areas, three alternative sets of ultimate annual percentage reductions in central death rates by age, sex, and cause of death were selected for 2027 and later. The intermediate set, which is used for alternative II, is considered to be the most likely to occur. The average annual percentage reductions used for alternative I are generally smaller than those for alternative II, while those used for alternative III are generally greater.

After 2000, the reductions in central death rates for alternative II are assumed to change rapidly from the average annual reductions by age, sex, and cause of death observed between 1979 and 2000, to the ultimate annual percentage reductions by age, sex, and cause of death assumed for 2027 and later. The reductions in death rates under alternatives I and III are also assumed to change rapidly to their ultimate levels, but start from levels which are, respectively, 50 or 150 percent of the average annual reductions observed between 1979 and 2000.

Projections of age-sex-adjusted death rates are presented in table V.A1 for the total (all ages), for under age 65, and for ages 65 and over. Under the intermediate assumptions, projected age-adjusted death rates for the total are slightly lower than those death rates in last year's report, until 2077, when the projected death rate equals that in last year's report. New data for 2000 and 2001 resulted in age-sex adjusted death rates throughout the projection period that are lower than those in last year's report for the age group under 65 and are higher than those in last year's report for the age group 65 and over.

After adjustment for changes in the age-sex distribution of the population, the resulting total death rates are projected to decline at ultimate average annual rates of about 0.34 percent, 0.73 percent, and 1.27 percent between 2027 and 2077 for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. In keeping with the patterns observed in the historical data, future rates of decline are assumed to be greater for younger ages than for older ages, but to a lesser degree than in the past. Accordingly, age-sex-adjusted death rates for ages 65 and over are projected to decline at average annual rates of about 0.30 percent, 0.69 percent, and 1.22 percent between 2027 and 2077 for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively.

There is a wide range of opinion among experts on the likely rate of future decline in death rates. For example, the 1999 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods appointed by the Social Security Advisory Board believed that ultimate rates of decline in mortality will be higher than the rates of decline assumed for the intermediate projections in this report. Others believe that biological and social factors may slow future rates of decline in mortality. Evolving mortality trends and developments in health care and life style will be closely monitored to determine what further modifications to the assumed ultimate rates of decline in mortality may be warranted for future reports.

3. Immigration Assumptions

Legal immigration increased after World War II to around 300,000 persons per year and remained around that level until shortly after 1960. With the Immigration Act of 1965 and other related changes, annual legal immigration increased to about 400,000 and remained fairly stable until 1977. Between 1977 and 1990, legal immigration once again increased, averaging about 580,000 6 per year. The Immigration Act of 1990, which took effect in fiscal year 1992, restructured the immigration categories and increased significantly the number of immigrants who may legally enter the United States. Legal immigration averaged about 810,000 6 persons per year during the period 1992 through 2001. The number of legal immigrants in 2001 is estimated to be 1,064,000 persons.

For 2001, net legal immigration (after considering emigration) is estimated to be about 800,000 persons. Net other-than-legal immigration is estimated to be 400,000 persons, an increase of 100,000 persons over the level estimated for 2001 in last year's report. This increase in other-than-legal immigration is based on the 2000 Census counts that indicate a level in excess of 400,000 per year over the period 1990-2000. For 2002, net legal immigration is estimated to be 825,000 persons for the intermediate and low cost assumptions and 750,000 persons for the high cost assumptions. Net other-than-legal immigration for 2002 is estimated to be 400,000 persons for all three assumptions.

After 2002, the annual number of net legal immigrants is projected to reach an ultimate level around 2011. The ultimate level of annual net other-than-legal immigrants is projected to be reached in 2023 under the intermediate and low cost assumptions and in 2013 under the high cost assumptions. For the intermediate assumptions, the ultimate levels are the same as those in last year's report. However, prior to 2023, the total levels of net annual immigration (legal and other-than-legal) are higher than those in last year's report.

The total level of net immigration (legal and other-than-legal, combined) under the intermediate projection is assumed to be 900,000 persons7 in 2023 and for each year afterward. For the low cost assumptions, net immigration is assumed to decline from a level of 1,430,000 persons in 2003 to an ultimate level of 1,300,000 persons8 for each year 2023 and later. Under the high cost assumptions, net immigration is assumed to be 950,000 persons in 2003, and 672,500 persons9 for each year after 2013.

Table V.A1.--Principal Demographic Assumptions, Calendar Years 1940-2080
Calendar year
Total
fertility
rate1
 
Age-sex-adjusted death rate 2
per 100,000, by age
 
Net immigration
 
Total
Under 65
65 and over
Legal 3
Other-
than-legal 4
Historical data:
 
1940
2.23
 
1,672.6
656.1
8,791.1
 
 
 
 
1945
2.42
 
1,488.6
584.4
7,820.1
 
 
 
 
1950
3.03
 
1,339.9
480.0
7,361.7
 
170,594
 
 
1955
3.50
 
1,243.0
424.7
6,973.6
 
209,779
 
 
1960
3.61
 
1,237.9
418.8
6,973.1
 
201,276
 
 
1965
2.88
 
1,210.8
411.7
6,806.6
 
232,400
 
 
1970
2.43
 
1,138.4
403.7
6,283.5
 
278,928
 
 
1975
1.77
 
1,020.9
352.5
5,701.7
 
294,303
 
 
1980
1.82
 
961.1
316.8
5,473.1
 
410,348
 
 
1985
1.84
 
912.3
289.9
5,270.4
 
433,449
 
 
1990
2.07
 
865.9
277.6
4,985.5
 
501,065
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1991
2.06
 
854.1
274.4
4,913.5
 
548,000
 
 
1992
2.04
 
842.5
268.4
4,862.5
 
620,986
 
 
1993
2.02
 
861.8
271.4
4,996.0
 
644,696
 
 
1994
2.00
 
850.2
268.7
4,922.3
 
583,390
 
 
1995
1.98
 
847.4
265.3
4,923.8
 
573,719
 
 
1996
1.98
 
834.1
254.3
4,894.0
 
662,284
 
 
1997
1.97
 
819.2
242.3
4,858.9
 
571,800
 
 
1998
2.00
 
812.2
235.7
4,849.5
 
489,360
 
 
1999
2.01
 
816.4
233.6
4,897.8
 
523,037
 
 
20005
2.06
 
810.3
234.7
4,841.4
 
677,579
400,000
 
20015
2.05
 
804.2
229.2
4,830.8
 
798,243
400,000
 
20025
2.04
 
800.0
226.5
4,816.3
 
825,000
400,000
Intermediate:
 
2005
2.03
 
786.6
218.8
4,763.0
 
750,000
400,000
 
2010
2.01
 
758.1
207.8
4,612.0
 
625,000
400,000
 
2015
2.00
 
727.3
197.8
4,435.2
 
600,000
350,000
 
2020
1.98
 
697.1
188.6
4,258.2
 
600,000
350,000
 
2025
1.96
 
668.5
180.0
4,089.1
 
600,000
300,000
 
2030
1.95
 
641.5
172.0
3,929.5
 
600,000
300,000
 
2035
1.95
 
616.2
164.4
3,780.2
 
600,000
300,000
 
2040
1.95
 
592.6
157.4
3,640.5
 
600,000
300,000
 
2045
1.95
 
570.4
150.7
3,509.6
 
600,000
300,000
 
2050
1.95
 
549.6
144.5
3,386.9
 
600,000
300,000
 
2055
1.95
 
530.1
138.6
3,271.6
 
600,000
300,000
 
2060
1.95
 
511.7
133.0
3,163.2
 
600,000
300,000
 
2065
1.95
 
494.3
127.8
3,061.1
 
600,000
300,000
 
2070
1.95
 
478.0
122.8
2,964.8
 
600,000
300,000
 
2075
1.95
 
462.5
118.2
2,873.9
 
600,000
300,000
 
2080
1.95
 
447.9
113.7
2,788.0
 
600,000
300,000
Low Cost:
 
2005
2.06
 
802.2
223.5
4,854.6
 
925,000
550,000
 
2010
2.09
 
795.0
217.9
4,836.6
 
875,000
550,000
 
2015
2.13
 
782.3
212.1
4,775.2
 
850,000
500,000
 
2020
2.16
 
768.0
206.3
4,700.8
 
850,000
500,000
 
2025
2.19
 
753.5
200.8
4,624.1
 
850,000
450,000
 
2030
2.20
 
739.4
195.5
4,547.9
 
850,000
450,000
 
2035
2.20
 
725.7
190.4
4,474.3
 
850,000
450,000
 
2040
2.20
 
712.6
185.5
4,403.3
 
850,000
450,000
 
2045
2.20
 
700.0
180.9
4,334.9
 
850,000
450,000
 
2050
2.20
 
687.8
176.5
4,268.9
 
850,000
450,000
 
2055
2.20
 
676.2
172.2
4,205.2
 
850,000
450,000
 
2060
2.20
 
664.9
168.1
4,143.8
 
850,000
450,000
 
2065
2.20
 
654.1
164.2
4,084.5
 
850,000
450,000
 
2070
2.20
 
643.6
160.4
4,027.3
 
850,000
450,000
 
2075
2.20
 
633.5
156.8
3,972.0
 
850,000
450,000
 
2080
2.20
 
623.8
153.3
3,918.6
 
850,000
450,000
High Cost:
 
2005
2.00
 
770.9
213.9
4,671.2
 
600,000
250,000
 
2010
1.93
 
719.5
196.0
4,384.9
 
472,500
250,000
 
2015
1.87
 
669.0
180.3
4,090.5
 
472,500
200,000
 
2020
1.80
 
621.7
166.2
3,811.3
 
472,500
200,000
 
2025
1.73
 
578.3
153.4
3,553.5
 
472,500
200,000
 
2030
1.70
 
538.5
141.7
3,317.1
 
472,500
200,000
 
2035
1.70
 
502.2
131.1
3,101.4
 
472,500
200,000
 
2040
1.70
 
469.1
121.3
2,904.4
 
472,500
200,000
 
2045
1.70
 
438.8
112.4
2,724.3
 
472,500
200,000
 
2050
1.70
 
411.1
104.3
2,559.3
 
472,500
200,000
 
2055
1.70
 
385.6
96.8
2,408.1
 
472,500
200,000
 
2060
1.70
 
362.3
90.0
2,269.3
 
472,500
200,000
 
2065
1.70
 
340.8
83.7
2,141.6
 
472,500
200,000
 
2070
1.70
 
321.1
77.9
2,024.1
 
472,500
200,000
 
2075
1.70
 
302.8
72.5
1,915.7
 
472,500
200,000
 
2080
1.70
 
286.0
67.6
1,815.6
 
472,500
200,000

1The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2027.

2The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 1990, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

3Historical estimates of net legal immigration assume a 25 percent reduction in legal immigration due to legal emigration. Estimates do not include persons legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

4Other-than-legal net annual immigration is estimated to have been between 225,000 and 550,000 persons for years 1980 through 1999.

5Preliminary or estimated.

4. Total Population Estimates

Combining the above assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and net immigration with assumptions on marriage and divorce based on data from NCHS, projections were made of the population in the Social Security area by age, sex, and marital status as of January 1 of each year 2001 through 2080. The starting Social Security area population for January 1, 2000, uses as a basis the Census Bureau's estimate of the residents of the 50 States and D.C., and U.S. Armed Forces overseas. This base estimate is significantly higher than the estimate for January 1, 2000 in last year's report because this estimate has been revised to reflect the higher than expected 2000 Census counts. The base estimate is adjusted for net census undercount and increased for other U.S. citizens living abroad (including residents of U.S. territories) and for non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social Security benefits. This starting population was then projected using assumed rates of birth, death, marriage and divorce, and assumed levels of net immigration.

Table V.A2 shows the projected population as of July 1 by broad age group, for the three alternatives. Also shown are tabulated aged and total dependency ratios (see table footnotes for definitions).

Table V.A2.--Social Security Area Population as of July 1 and Dependency Ratios, Calendar Years 1950-2080  
Calendar year
Population (in thousands)
 
Dependency ratio
Under 20
20-64
65 and
over
Total
Aged 1
Total 2
Historical data:
 
1950
54,468
92,901
12,812
160,180
 
0.138
0.724
 
1960
73,076
99,859
17,279
190,215
 
.173
.905
 
1965
80,134
104,833
19,093
204,059
 
.182
.947
 
1970
80,685
113,194
20,921
214,800
 
.185
.898
 
1975
78,438
122,862
23,266
224,566
 
.189
.828
 
1980
74,570
134,431
26,149
235,150
 
.195
.749
 
1985
73,248
144,897
29,065
247,210
 
.201
.706
 
1990
75,326
153,060
32,022
260,408
 
.209
.701
 
1995
80,486
161,290
34,572
276,348
 
.214
.713
 
2000
83,492
171,657
35,866
291,015
 
.209
.695
Intermediate:
 
2005
84,733
183,015
37,145
304,894
 
.203
.666
 
2010
85,453
192,316
40,368
318,137
 
.210
.654
 
2015
86,417
197,711
46,608
330,736
 
.236
.673
 
2020
88,412
199,937
54,299
342,649
 
.272
.714
 
2025
89,423
201,035
63,014
353,471
 
.313
.758
 
2030
89,980
202,326
70,494
362,801
 
.348
.793
 
2035
90,332
205,682
74,843
370,856
 
.364
.803
 
2040
90,879
209,566
77,360
377,804
 
.369
.803
 
2045
91,688
213,052
79,142
383,883
 
.371
.802
 
2050
92,701
214,909
81,799
389,409
 
.381
.812
 
2055
93,578
216,295
84,894
394,768
 
.392
.825
 
2060
94,246
218,032
87,945
400,223
 
.403
.836
 
2065
94,844
220,848
90,108
405,800
 
.408
.837
 
2070
95,527
222,958
92,829
411,314
 
.416
.845
 
2075
96,316
224,829
95,447
416,592
 
.425
.853
 
2080
97,137
226,409
98,071
421,617
 
.433
.862
Low Cost:
 
2005
85,054
183,433
37,113
305,599
 
.202
.666
 
2010
87,001
194,023
40,149
321,173
 
.207
.655
 
2015
89,849
200,817
46,059
336,726
 
.229
.677
 
2020
94,364
204,519
53,283
352,166
 
.261
.722
 
2025
98,468
207,242
61,362
367,072
 
.296
.771
 
2030
102,239
210,742
68,044
381,026
 
.323
.808
 
2035
105,564
216,953
71,528
394,044
 
.330
.816
 
2040
109,000
224,262
73,263
406,525
 
.327
.813
 
2045
112,724
231,679
74,509
418,913
 
.322
.808
 
2050
116,703
237,989
76,894
431,586
 
.323
.813
 
2055
120,790
244,188
79,852
444,830
 
.327
.822
 
2060
124,745
251,265
82,755
458,764
 
.329
.826
 
2065
128,597
260,028
84,682
473,307
 
.326
.820
 
2070
132,511
268,683
87,086
488,280
 
.324
.817
 
2075
136,593
277,234
89,774
503,602
 
.324
.817
 
2080
140,809
285,501
93,001
519,311
 
.326
.819
High Cost:
 
2005
84,385
182,525
37,172
304,081
 
.204
.666
 
2010
84,014
190,846
40,611
315,471
 
.213
.653
 
2015
83,317
195,317
47,259
325,893
 
.242
.669
 
2020
83,082
196,587
55,554
335,223
 
.283
.705
 
2025
81,415
196,667
65,106
343,188
 
.331
.745
 
2030
79,319
196,462
73,658
349,438
 
.375
.779
 
2035
77,330
197,738
79,204
354,272
 
.401
.792
 
2040
75,724
199,033
82,900
357,656
 
.417
.797
 
2045
74,491
199,465
85,680
359,636
 
.430
.803
 
2050
73,546
197,819
89,099
360,464
 
.450
.822
 
2055
72,339
195,444
92,807
360,591
 
.475
.845
 
2060
70,931
193,026
96,450
360,407
 
.500
.867
 
2065
69,560
191,241
99,260
360,061
 
.519
.883
 
2070
68,381
188,317
102,719
359,418
 
.545
.909
 
2075
67,360
185,229
105,673
358,262
 
.570
.934
 
2080
66,388
182,039
108,088
356,515
 
.594
.958

1Population aged 65 and over, divided by population aged 20-64.

2Sum of population aged 65 and over, and population under age 20, divided by population aged 20-64.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

5. Life Expectancy Estimates

Life expectancy, or average remaining number of years expected prior to death, is a useful analytical concept. Life expectancy is calculated in two different forms, for two separate purposes.

Period life expectancy is calculated for a given year using the actual or expected death rates at each age for that year. It is a useful summary statistic for illustrating the overall level of the death rates experienced in a single year. It is thus closely related to the age-sex-adjusted death rate that is discussed in section V.A.2. Period life expectancy for a particular year may be viewed as the expected remaining life at a selected age only if it is assumed that there is no change in death rates after that year.

Cohort life expectancy truly answers the question "What is the expected average remaining lifetime for an individual at a selected age in a given year?" Cohort life expectancies are calculated using death rates not from a single year, but from the series of years in which the individual will actually reach each succeeding age if he or she survives.

Tables V.A3 and V.A4 present historical and projected life expectancies calculated on both period and cohort bases. Cohort life expectancies are somewhat greater than period life expectancies for the same year. This is because death rates for any given age tend to decline as time passes and the cohort grows older.

Table V.A3.--Period Life Expectancies 1
Calendar
year
Low Cost
 
Intermediate
 
High Cost
At birth
 
At age 65
At birth
 
At age 65
At birth
 
At age 65
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Historical data:
 
1940
 
 
 
 
 
 
61.4
65.7
 
11.9
13.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1945
 
 
 
 
 
 
62.9
68.4
 
12.6
14.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1950
 
 
 
 
 
 
65.6
71.1
 
12.8
15.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1955
 
 
 
 
 
66.7
72.8
 
13.1
15.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1960
 
 
 
 
 
 
66.7
73.2
 
12.9
15.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1965
 
 
 
 
 
 
66.8
73.8
 
12.9
16.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1970
 
 
 
 
 
 
67.2
74.9
 
13.1
17.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1975
 
 
 
 
 
 
68.7
76.6
 
13.7
18.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1980
 
 
 
 
 
 
69.9
77.5
 
14.0
18.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1985
 
 
 
 
 
 
71.1
78.2
 
14.4
18.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1990
 
 
 
 
 
 
71.8
78.9
 
15.0
19.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1991
 
 
 
 
 
 
72.0
79.0
 
15.1
19.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1992
 
 
 
 
 
 
72.2
79.2
 
15.2
19.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1993
 
 
 
 
 
 
72.0
78.9
 
15.1
19.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1994
 
 
 
 
 
 
72.3
79.0
 
15.3
19.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1995
 
 
 
 
 
 
72.5
79.0
 
15.3
19.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1996
 
 
 
 
 
 
72.9
79.2
 
15.4
19.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1997
 
 
 
 
 
 
73.4
79.3
 
15.5
19.1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1998
 
 
 
 
 
 
73.7
79.4
 
15.6
19.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1999
 
 
 
 
 
 
73.8
79.3
 
15.7
18.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2000 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
73.9
79.2
 
15.8
18.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2001 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
74.1
79.4
 
15.8
19.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2002 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
74.2
79.5
 
15.9
19.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
Projected:
 
2005
74.3
79.4
 
15.9
18.9
 
74.6
79.6
 
16.1
19.0
 
74.9
79.9
 
16.2
19.2
 
2010
74.6
79.5
 
16.0
18.9
 
75.2
80.0
 
16.4
19.3
 
75.8
80.6
 
16.8
19.7
 
2015
74.9
79.7
 
16.2
19.0
 
75.7
80.5
 
16.7
19.6
 
76.8
81.4
 
17.3
20.2
 
2020
75.2
79.9
 
16.3
19.1
 
76.3
80.9
 
17.0
19.9
 
77.7
82.2
 
17.9
20.8
 
2025
75.4
80.2
 
16.4
19.2
 
76.8
81.4
 
17.3
20.2
 
78.5
82.9
 
18.4
21.3
 
2030
75.7
80.4
 
16.5
19.3
 
77.3
81.8
 
17.7
20.5
 
79.4
83.6
 
19.0
21.8
 
2035
76.0
80.6
 
16.7
19.5
 
77.8
82.2
 
18.0
20.8
 
80.2
84.3
 
19.5
22.4
 
2040
76.2
80.8
 
16.8
19.6
 
78.3
82.6
 
18.3
21.1
 
80.9
85.0
 
20.1
22.9
 
2045
76.5
81.0
 
16.9
19.7
 
78.7
83.0
 
18.5
21.4
 
81.7
85.7
 
20.6
23.4
 
2050
76.7
81.2
 
17.0
19.8
 
79.2
83.4
 
18.8
21.7
 
82.4
86.3
 
21.1
23.9
 
2055
76.9
81.4
 
17.1
20.0
 
79.6
83.8
 
19.1
21.9
 
83.1
87.0
 
21.6
24.3
 
2060
77.2
81.6
 
17.2
20.1
 
80.0
84.2
 
19.4
22.2
 
83.8
87.6
 
22.1
24.8
 
2065
77.4
81.7
 
17.4
20.2
 
80.5
84.5
 
19.6
22.5
 
84.5
88.1
 
22.5
25.3
 
2070
77.6
81.9
 
17.5
20.3
 
80.8
84.9
 
19.9
22.7
 
85.1
88.7
 
23.0
25.7
 
2075
77.8
82.1
 
17.6
20.4
 
81.2
85.2
 
20.2
23.0
 
85.7
89.3
 
23.4
26.2
 
2080
78.0
82.2
 
17.7
20.5
 
81.6
85.5
 
20.4
23.2
 
86.3
89.8
 
23.9
26.6

1The period life expectancy at a given age for a given year represents the average number of years of life remaining if a group of persons at that age were to experience the mortality rates for that year over the course of their remaining lives.

2Preliminary or estimated.

Table V.A4.--Cohort Life Expectancies 1
Calendar
year
Low Cost
 
Intermediate
 
High Cost
At birth
 
At age 65  2
At birth
 
At age 65 2
At birth
 
At age 65  2
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
1940
69.0
75.3
 
12.7
14.7
 
69.4
75.9
 
12.7
14.7
 
70.0
76.6
 
12.7
14.7
1945
70.5
76.6
 
13.0
15.4
 
71.1
77.4
 
13.0
15.4
 
71.9
78.4
 
13.0
15.4
1950
71.4
77.6
 
13.1
16.2
 
72.3
78.6
 
13.1
16.2
 
73.4
79.9
 
13.1
16.2
1955
72.0
78.0
 
13.1
16.7
 
73.1
79.3
 
13.1
16.7
 
74.5
80.8
 
13.1
16.7
1960
72.4
78.3
 
13.2
17.4
 
73.7
79.8
 
13.2
17.4
 
75.5
81.6
 
13.2
17.4
1965
73.0
78.7
 
13.5
18.0
 
74.6
80.3
 
13.5
18.0
 
76.6
82.5
 
13.5
18.0
1970
73.8
79.3
 
13.8
18.5
 
75.7
81.1
 
13.8
18.5
 
78.1
83.6
 
13.8
18.5
1975
74.5
79.8
 
14.2
18.7
 
76.6
81.9
 
14.2
18.7
 
79.3
84.7
 
14.2
18.7
1980
75.1
80.2
 
14.7
18.7
 
77.5
82.5
 
14.7
18.8
 
80.6
85.6
 
14.7
18.8
1985
75.6
80.6
 
15.1
18.8
 
78.2
83.1
 
15.2
18.9
 
81.6
86.5
 
15.2
19.0
1990
76.0
80.9
 
15.5
18.8
 
78.8
83.6
 
15.6
19.1
 
82.6
87.3
 
15.7
19.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1991
76.1
80.9
 
15.6
18.9
 
78.9
83.7
 
15.7
19.1
 
82.8
87.5
 
15.8
19.3
1992
76.2
81.0
 
15.6
18.9
 
79.0
83.8
 
15.8
19.1
 
83.0
87.6
 
15.9
19.4
1993
76.2
81.0
 
15.7
18.9
 
79.1
83.9
 
15.9
19.2
 
83.2
87.8
 
16.0
19.5
1994
76.3
81.1
 
15.7
18.9
 
79.3
84.0
 
15.9
19.2
 
83.4
87.9
 
16.2
19.6
1995
76.4
81.2
 
15.8
18.9
 
79.4
84.1
 
16.0
19.3
 
83.6
88.1
 
16.3
19.6
1996
76.5
81.2
 
15.9
18.9
 
79.5
84.2
 
16.1
19.3
 
83.7
88.2
 
16.4
19.7
1997
76.5
81.3
 
15.9
18.9
 
79.6
84.2
 
16.2
19.4
 
83.9
88.4
 
16.5
19.8
1998
76.6
81.3
 
16.0
19.0
 
79.7
84.3
 
16.3
19.4
 
84.1
88.5
 
16.7
19.9
1999
76.6
81.3
 
16.0
19.0
 
79.8
84.4
 
16.4
19.5
 
84.2
88.6
 
16.8
20.0
2000 
76.6
81.3
 
16.1
19.0
 
79.9
84.4
 
16.5
19.5
 
84.3
88.7
 
16.9
20.1
2001 
76.7
81.4
 
16.1
19.0
 
80.0
84.6
 
16.5
19.6
 
84.5
88.9
 
17.0
20.2
2002 
76.8
81.5
 
16.1
19.0
 
80.1
84.6
 
16.6
19.6
 
84.7
89.0
 
17.2
20.3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005
76.9
81.6
 
16.2
19.1
 
80.4
84.9
 
16.8
19.8
 
85.2
89.5
 
17.5
20.7
2010
77.2
81.8
 
16.3
19.2
 
80.9
85.3
 
17.1
20.1
 
86.0
90.1
 
18.1
21.2
2015
77.4
82.0
 
16.5
19.3
 
81.3
85.6
 
17.5
20.5
 
86.7
90.7
 
18.7
21.8
2020
77.7
82.2
 
16.6
19.5
 
81.7
86.0
 
17.8
20.8
 
87.4
91.3
 
19.3
22.4
2025
77.9
82.4
 
16.7
19.6
 
82.1
86.3
 
18.1
21.1
 
88.0
91.9
 
19.9
23.0
2030
78.1
82.5
 
16.8
19.7
 
82.5
86.6
 
18.4
21.4
 
88.6
92.4
 
20.5
23.5
2035
78.3
82.7
 
16.9
19.8
 
82.9
87.0
 
18.7
21.7
 
89.3
92.9
 
21.0
24.1
2040
78.6
82.9
 
17.1
19.9
 
83.3
87.3
 
19.0
22.0
 
89.9
93.5
 
21.6
24.6
2045
78.8
83.0
 
17.2
20.1
 
83.6
87.6
 
19.3
22.3
 
90.4
94.0
 
22.1
25.1
2050
78.9
83.2
 
17.3
20.2
 
84.0
87.9
 
19.6
22.5
 
91.0
94.5
 
22.6
25.6
2055
79.1
83.3
 
17.4
20.3
 
84.3
88.1
 
19.8
22.8
 
91.5
94.9
 
23.1
26.1
2060
79.3
83.5
 
17.5
20.4
 
84.6
88.4
 
20.1
23.0
 
92.1
95.4
 
23.6
26.5
2065
79.5
83.6
 
17.6
20.5
 
85.0
88.7
 
20.4
23.3
 
92.6
95.9
 
24.1
27.0
2070
79.7
83.7
 
17.7
20.6
 
85.3
89.0
 
20.6
23.5
 
93.1
96.3
 
24.6
27.5
2075
79.8
83.9
 
17.8
20.7
 
85.6
89.2
 
20.9
23.8
 
93.6
96.7
 
25.0
27.9
2080
80.0
84.0
 
17.9
20.8
 
85.9
89.5
 
21.1
24.0
 
94.3
97.2
 
25.5
28.3

1The cohort life expectancy at a given age for a given year represents the average number of years of life remaining if a group of persons at that age were to experience the mortality rates for the series of years in which they reach each succeeding age.

2Age 65 cohort life expectancies are based on actual data prior to 1970.


1Further details about the assumptions, methods, and actuarial estimates are contained in Actuarial Studies published by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration. A complete list of available studies may be found on the Internet at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/actstud.html. To obtain copies of such Studies, or of this report, submit a request via our Internet request form; or write to: Office of the Chief Actuary, 700 Altmeyer Building, 6401 Security Boulevard, Baltimore, MD 21235; or call (410) 965-3015. This entire report, along with supplemental year-by-year tables, may also be found at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR03/index.html.

2Defined to be the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. A rate of 2.1 would ultimately result in a nearly constant population if net immigration were zero and if death rates were constant.

3These rates reflect NCHS data on deaths and Census estimates of population.

4Calculated here as the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 1990, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex for the selected year.

5Average rate of decline is calculated as the complement of the exponential of the slope of the least-squares line through the logarithms of the central death rates.

6Excludes those persons admitted under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

7600,000 net legal immigrants plus 300,000 net other-than-legal immigrants.

8850,000 net legal immigrants plus 450,000 net other-than-legal immigrants.

9472,500 net legal immigrants plus 200,000 net other-than-legal immigrants.


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