2003 OASDI Trustees Report
It is my opinion that (1) the techniques and methodology used herein to evaluate the financial and actuarial status of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds are based upon sound principles of actuarial practice and are generally accepted within the actuarial profession; and (2) the assumptions used and the resulting actuarial estimates are, individually and in the aggregate, reasonable for the purpose of evaluating the financial and actuarial status of the trust funds, taking into consideration the past experience and future expectations for the population, the economy, and the program.
This report presents estimates for several additional measures of the unfunded obligation of the Social Security program that were not included in last year's report. These estimates are based on extensions of the assumptions and methods used for other projections shown in this report, and are consistent with them.
In addition, this report presents, for the first time, results of a new stochastic model for projecting probability distributions of financial measures for the Social Security program. Results presented from this model reflect the intermediate assumptions and methods of last year's report. It should be noted that the model is in its first stage of development and will continue to be improved and refined. As indicated in appendix E of this report, future model revisions are expected to reflect a fuller range of uncertainty about the future.
Stephen C. Goss,
Associate of the Society of Actuaries,
Member of the American Academy of Actuaries,
Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration