2013 OASDI Trustees Report

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B. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES
The Trustees use three types of financial measures to assess the actuarial status of the Social Security trust funds under the financing approach specified in current law: (1) annual cash-flow measures, including income rates, cost rates, and balances; (2) trust fund ratios; and (3) summary measures such as actuarial balances and unfunded obligations.
The difference between the annual income rate and annual cost rate, both expressed as percentages of taxable payroll, is the annual balance. The level and trend of the annual balances at the end of the 75-year projection period are factors that the Trustees use to assess the financial condition of the program.
The trust fund ratio for a year is the proportion of the year’s projected cost that could be paid with funds available at the beginning of the year. Critical factors considered by the Trustees in assessing actuarial status include: (1) the level and year of maximum trust fund ratio; (2) the year of depletion of the fund reserves and the percent of scheduled benefits that is still payable after reserves are depleted; and (3) the stability of the trust fund ratio at the end of the long-range period.
Solvency at any point in time requires that sufficient financial resources are available to pay all scheduled benefits at that time. Solvency is generally indicated by a positive trust fund ratio. “Sustainable solvency” for the financing of the program under a specified set of assumptions has been achieved when the program has positive projected trust fund ratios throughout the 75‑year projection period that are either stable or rising at the end of the period.
Summarized measures for any period indicate whether projected income is sufficient, on average, for the whole period. The Trustees summarize the total income and cost over valuation periods that extend through 75 years and over the infinite horizon. This section presents two summarized measures: (1) the actuarial balance; and (2) the open group unfunded obligation. The actuarial balance indicates the size of any surplus or shortfall as a percentage of the taxable payroll over the period. The open group unfunded obligation indicates the size of any shortfall in present-value dollars.
This section also includes additional information that the Trustees use to assess the financial status of the Social Security program, including: (1) a comparison of the number of beneficiaries to the number of covered workers; (2) the test of long-range close actuarial balance; and (3) the reasons for the change in the actuarial balance from the last report.
1. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances
The concepts of income rate and cost rate, expressed as percentages of taxable payroll, are important in the consideration of the long-range actuarial status of the trust funds. The annual income rate is the ratio of all non-interest income to the OASDI taxable payroll for the year. Non-interest income includes payroll taxes, taxes on scheduled benefits, and any general fund transfers or reimbursements. The OASDI taxable payroll consists of the total earnings subject to OASDI taxes with some relatively small adjustments.1 The annual cost rate is the ratio of the cost of the program to the taxable payroll for the year. The cost includes scheduled benefits, administrative expenses, net interchange with the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. For any year, the income rate minus the cost rate is the “balance” for the year.
Table IV.B1 presents a comparison of the estimated annual income rates and cost rates by trust fund and alternative. Table VI.F8 shows detailed long-range projections of trust fund operations in current dollar amounts.
Under the intermediate assumptions, the Trustees project that the OASI income rate will rise from 10.89 percent of taxable payroll for 2013 to 11.39 percent for 2087. Income from taxation of benefits causes this increase for two main reasons: (1) benefits are rising faster than payroll; and (2) the benefit-taxation threshold amounts are fixed (not indexed), and therefore an increasing share of benefits will be subject to tax as incomes and benefits rise. The pattern of the cost rate is much different. The OASI cost rate increased from 11.04 percent of taxable payroll for 2011 to 11.33 percent for 2012. For 2013 and 2014, the Trustees project smaller increases in the cost rate, reaching levels of 11.51 and 11.63 percent of taxable payroll, respectively. From 2014 to 2016, the cost rate stabilizes, as the economic recovery through this period offsets the effects of the aging population. From 2016 to 2035, the cost rate rises rapidly because the retirement of the baby-boom generation will increase the number of beneficiaries much faster than the number of workers increases, as subsequent lower-birth-rate generations replace the baby-boom generation at working ages. From 2038 to 2050, the cost rate declines because the aging baby-boom generation is gradually replaced at retirement ages by historically low-birth-rate generations, causing the beneficiary-to-worker ratio to decline. After 2050, the Trustees project the OASI cost rate will generally rise, reaching 15.73 percent of taxable payroll for 2087, primarily because of projected reductions in death rates.
The Trustees’ projections of income rates under the low-cost and high-cost sets of assumptions are very similar to those projected for the intermediate assumptions, because income rates are largely a reflection of the payroll tax rates specified in the law (including reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury to compensate fully for the temporary reductions in payroll tax rates in 2010 through 2012), with the gradual change from taxation of benefits noted above. In contrast, OASI cost rates for the low-cost and high-cost assumptions are significantly different from those projected for the intermediate assumptions. For the low-cost assumptions, the OASI cost rate decreases from 2012 through 2017, and then rises until it peaks in 2034 at 13.05 percent of payroll. Thereafter, the cost rate generally declines until it reaches 11.59 percent of payroll for 2087, at which point the income rate reaches 11.18 percent. For the high-cost assumptions, the OASI cost rate rises throughout the 75-year period. It rises relatively rapidly through 2035 because of the aging of the baby-boom generation. Thereafter, the cost rate continues to rise and reaches 22.17 percent of payroll for 2087, at which point the income rate reaches 11.73 percent.
The pattern of the projected OASI annual balance is important in the analysis of the financial condition of the program. Under the intermediate assumptions, the annual balance is negative throughout the projection period. This annual deficit rises rapidly, reaching a peak of 3.61 percent of taxable payroll for 2038, then declines to 3.29 percent of taxable payroll for 2051, and generally rises thereafter, reaching 4.34 percent of taxable payroll for 2087.
Under the low-cost assumptions, the Trustees project the OASI annual balance to be negative in 2013-2015, positive for 2016 through 2018, and negative thereafter. The annual deficit peaks at 1.82 percent of taxable payroll for 2034 and then declines for most years thereafter, reaching a deficit of 0.41 percent of payroll for 2087. Under the high-cost assumptions, the OASI balance is negative throughout the projection period. Annual deficits rise to 2.03 percent for 2020, 6.21 percent for 2050, and 10.45 percent of payroll for 2087.
 
Income
rate a

a
Income rates include certain reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury.

b
The Trustees project the annual balance to be negative for a temporary period and return to positive levels before the end of the projection period.

Notes:
1. The income rate excludes interest income.
2. Revisions of taxable payroll may change some historical values.
3. Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.
The DI cost rate rose substantially from 1.88 percent of taxable payroll in 2007 to 2.46 percent for 2012 due to the recent economic recession. Under the intermediate assumptions, the Trustees project that the DI cost rate will decline from 2.46 percent for 2012 to 2.10 percent for 2020. From 2020 to 2040, the DI cost rate stays relatively stable and then increases to 2.28 percent for 2087. The income rate increases only very slightly from 1.80 percent of taxable payroll for 2013 to 1.85 percent for 2087. The projected annual deficit is 0.64 percent for 2013 and declines to 0.42 percent for 2087.
Under the low-cost assumptions, the DI cost rate declines from 2.46 percent of payroll for 2012 to 1.54 percent for 2040, and remains relatively stable thereafter, reaching 1.56 percent for 2087. The annual balance is negative for the first 7 years and is positive throughout the remainder of the long-range period. Under the high-cost assumptions, the DI cost rate generally rises from 2020 through the end of the projection period, reaching 3.19 percent for 2087. The annual deficit is 0.71 percent for 2013, 0.63 percent for 2020, and rises to 1.31 percent for 2087.
Figure IV.B1 shows the patterns of the OASI and DI annual cost rates. Annual DI cost rates rose substantially between 1990 and 2010 in large part due to: (1) aging of the working population as the baby-boom generation moved from ages 25-44 in 1990, where disability prevalence is low, to ages 45-64 in 2010, where disability prevalence is much higher; (2) a substantial increase in the percentage of women insured for DI benefits as a result of increased and more consistent rates of employment; and (3) increased disability incidence rates for women to a level similar to those for men by 2010. After 2010, all of these factors stabilize, and therefore the DI cost rate stabilizes also. Annual OASI cost rates follow a similar pattern to that for DI, but displaced 20 to 25 years later, because the baby-boom generation enters retirement ages 20 to 25 years after entering prime disability ages. Figure IV.B1 shows only the income rates for alternative II because the variation in income rates by alternative is very small. Income rates generally increase slowly for each of the alternatives over the long-range period. Taxation of benefits, which is a relatively small portion of income, is the main source of both the increases in the income rate and the variation among the alternatives. Increases in income from taxation of benefits reflect: (1) increases in the total amount of benefits paid; and (2) the increasing share of individual benefits that will be subject to taxation because benefit taxation threshold amounts are not indexed.
Figure IV.B1 shows the patterns of the annual balances for OASI and DI. For each alternative and for historical data, the magnitude of each of the positive balances, as a percentage of taxable payroll, is the distance between the appropriate cost-rate curve and the income-rate curve above it. The magnitude of each of the deficits is the distance between the appropriate cost-rate curve and the income-rate curve below it. Annual balances follow closely the pattern of annual cost rates after 1990 because the payroll tax rate does not change for the OASDI program, with only small variations in the allocation between DI and OASI. The pattern of the projected OASDI annual balances is important to the analysis of the financial condition of the Social Security program as a whole.
In the future, the costs of OASI, DI, and the combined OASDI programs as a percentage of taxable payroll are unlikely to fall outside the range encompassed by alternatives I and III because alternatives I and III define a wide range of demographic and economic conditions.
 
Long-range OASDI cost and income are most often expressed as percentages of taxable payroll. However, the Trustees also present cost and income as shares of gross domestic product (GDP), the value of goods and services produced during the year in the United States. Under alternative II, the Trustees project the OASDI cost to rise from 5.06 percent of GDP for 2013 to a peak of 6.23 percent for 2036. Thereafter, OASDI cost as a percentage of GDP declines to a low of 6.04 percent for 2052 and then generally increases slowly thereafter, reaching 6.20 percent by 2087. Appendix F presents full estimates of income and cost relative to GDP.
2. Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries
Under the intermediate assumptions, the Trustees project the OASDI cost rate will increase through 2014 and then decrease through 2017 as the economy recovers. The cost rate then rises rapidly between 2017 and 2035, primarily because the number of beneficiaries rises much more rapidly than the number of covered workers as the baby-boom generation retires. The ratio of OASDI beneficiaries to workers is dominated by the OASI program because all workers eventually die or retire, but only a small minority become disabled. The trends described below are primarily due to demographic changes and thus affect the DI program roughly 20 years earlier than the OASI and OASDI programs. The baby-boom generation had lower fertility rates than their parents, and the Trustees expect those lower fertility rates to persist; therefore, the ratio of OASDI beneficiaries to workers will rise rapidly and reach a permanently higher level after the baby-boom generation retires. Due to increasing longevity, the ratio of beneficiaries to workers will generally rise slowly thereafter. Table IV.B2 provides a comparison of the numbers of covered workers and beneficiaries.
 
Covered
workers a(in thousands)
Beneficiaries b (in thousands)

a
Workers who are paid at some time during the year for employment on which OASDI taxes are due.

b
Beneficiaries with monthly benefits in current-payment status as of June 30.

Notes:
1. The number of beneficiaries does not include uninsured individuals who receive benefits under Section 228 of the Social Security Act. The General Fund of the Treasury reimburses the trust funds for the costs of most of these individuals.
2. Historical covered worker and beneficiary data are subject to revision.
3. Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.
The effect of the demographic shift under the three alternatives on the OASDI cost rates is clear when one considers the projected number of OASDI beneficiaries per 100 covered workers. Compared to the 2012 level of 35 beneficiaries per 100 covered workers, the Trustees project that this ratio will rise to 48 by 2035 under the intermediate assumptions because the growth in beneficiaries greatly exceeds the growth in workers. By 2090, this projected ratio rises further under the intermediate and high-cost assumptions, reaching 52 under the intermediate assumptions and 67 under the high-cost assumptions. Under the low-cost assumptions, this ratio rises to 45 by 2035 and then declines, reaching a stable level of about 40 after 2077. Figure IV.B2 shows beneficiaries per 100 covered workers.
For each alternative, the curve in figure IV.B2 is strikingly similar to the corresponding cost-rate curve in figure IV.B1. This similarity emphasizes the extent to which the cost rate is determined by the age distribution of the population. The cost rate is essentially the product of the number of beneficiaries and their average benefit, divided by the product of the number of covered workers and their average taxable earnings. For this reason, the pattern of the annual cost rates is similar to that of the annual ratios of beneficiaries to workers.
 
Table IV.B2 also shows the number of covered workers per OASDI beneficiary, which was about 2.9 for 2012. Under the low-cost assumptions, this ratio declines to 2.2 by 2035, and then generally rises throughout the remainder of the period, reaching 2.5 by 2090. Under the intermediate assumptions, this ratio declines generally throughout the long-range period, reaching 2.1 for 2035 and 1.9 by 2090. Under the high-cost assumptions, this ratio decreases steadily to 1.5 by 2090.
3. Trust Fund Ratios and Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance
Trust fund ratios are critical indicators of the adequacy of the financial resources of the Social Security program. The trust fund ratio for a year is the amount of asset reserves in a fund at the beginning of a year expressed as a percentage of the cost for the year. Under present law, the OASI and DI Trust Funds do not have the authority to borrow other than in the form of advance tax transfers, which are limited to expected taxes for the current calendar month. If reserves held in either trust fund become depleted during a year, and continuing tax revenues fall short of the cost of scheduled benefits, then full scheduled benefits would not be payable on a timely basis. For this reason, the trust fund ratio is the most critical financial measure.
The trust fund ratio serves an additional important purpose in assessing the actuarial status of the program. If the projected trust fund ratio is positive throughout the period and is either level or increasing at the end of the period, then projected adequacy for the long-range period is likely to continue for subsequent reports. Under these conditions, the program has achieved sustainable solvency.
Table IV.B3 shows the Trustees’ projections of trust fund ratios by alternative, without regard to advance tax transfers that would be effected, for the separate and combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. The table also shows the years of trust fund reserve depletion and the percentage of scheduled benefits that would be payable thereafter, by alternative.
Under the intermediate assumptions, the OASI Trust Fund ratio consistently declines from 383 percent at the beginning of the period until the trust fund reserves become depleted in 2035, at which time 75 percent of scheduled benefits would be payable. The DI trust fund ratio has been declining steadily since 2003 (at first slowly and then more rapidly), and continues to decline from 85 percent at the beginning of 2013 until the trust fund reserves become depleted in 2016, at which time 80 percent of scheduled benefits would be payable.
Under the intermediate assumptions, the trust fund ratio for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds declines from 330 percent at the beginning of 2013 until the combined fund reserves become depleted in 2033, at which time 77 percent of scheduled benefits would be payable. This is the same depletion year that was shown in last year’s report.
Under the low-cost assumptions, the trust fund ratio for the DI program increases from 2020 through the end of the long-range projection period, reaching the extremely high level of 1,462 percent for 2088. For the OASI program, the trust fund ratio declines steadily, until the trust fund reserves become depleted in 2054, at which time 91 percent of scheduled benefits would still be payable. For the combined OASDI program, the trust fund ratio declines from 331 percent for 2013 until reserves become depleted in 2068, at which time 95 percent of scheduled benefits would still be payable. Thus, under the low-cost assumptions, only the DI program achieves sustainable solvency. However, the DI trust fund ratio falls below 25 percent for some early years of the 75-year projection period.
Under the high-cost assumptions, the OASI trust fund ratio declines continually until reserves become depleted in 2029, at which time 70 percent of scheduled benefits would still be payable. The DI trust fund ratio declines from 83 percent for 2013 until reserves become depleted in 2015, at which time 70 percent of scheduled benefits would still be payable. The combined OASI and DI trust fund ratio declines from 329 percent for 2013 until reserves become depleted in 2027, at which time 72 percent of scheduled benefits would still be payable.
The Trustees project trust fund reserve depletion within the 75-year projection period with the exception of the DI Trust Fund under the low-cost assumptions. It is therefore highly likely that lawmakers will need to increase income, reduce program costs, or both, in order to maintain solvency for the trust funds. The stochastic projections discussed in appendix E suggest that trust fund reserve depletion is highly probable by mid-century.
Even under the high-cost assumptions, however, the combined OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves on hand plus their estimated future income are sufficient to cover their combined cost until 2027. Under the intermediate and low-cost assumptions, the combined starting fund reserves plus estimated future income are sufficient to cover cost until 2033 and 2068, respectively. In the 2012 report, the Trustees projected that the combined trust fund reserves would become depleted in 2027 under the high-cost assumptions and in 2033 under the intermediate assumptions, but also projected that the combined trust fund reserves would remain positive and achieve sustainable solvency under the low-cost assumptions.

a
The Trustees estimate that the trust fund reserves will be depleted by the beginning of this year.

b
The Trustees estimate that the trust fund reserves will not be depleted within the projection period.

Note: The definition of trust fund ratio appears in the Glossary. The ratios shown for the combined trust funds for years after reserve depletion of either the DI or OASI Trust Fund are theoretical.
The test of long-range close actuarial balance for each trust fund requires meeting two conditions: (1) the short-range test of financial adequacy is satisfied; and (2) the trust fund ratios stay above zero throughout the 75-year projection period, allowing scheduled benefits to be paid in a timely manner throughout the period. As discussed in section IV.A, the DI Trust Fund fails the short-range test of financial adequacy under the intermediate assumptions because trust fund reserves become depleted in 2016. Under the intermediate assumptions, the OASI trust fund reserves become depleted in 2035, and the combined OASI and DI trust fund reserves become depleted in 2033. Therefore, the OASI, DI, and combined OASI and DI Trust Funds all fail the long-range test of close actuarial balance.
Beginning with this report, the Trustees modified the test of long-range close actuarial balance to require solvency throughout the 75-year projection period. The old test allowed for a negative actuarial balance of up to 5 percent of the summarized cost rate for the full 75-year period. The Trustees modified the test to make it simpler and to be more consistent with the actuarial measures presented in this report.
Figure IV.B3 illustrates the trust fund ratios for the separate OASI and DI Trust Funds for each of the alternative sets of assumptions. DI Trust Fund status is more uncertain than OASI Trust Fund status because there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with future disability prevalence. A graph of the trust fund ratios for the combined trust funds appears in figure II.D6.
 
4. Summarized Income Rates, Summarized Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances
Summarized values for the full 75-year period are useful in analyzing the program’s long-range financial adequacy over the period as a whole, both under present law and under proposed modifications to the law. All annual amounts included in a summarized value are present-value discounted to the valuation date.
Table IV.B4 presents summarized income rates, summarized cost rates, and actuarial balances for 25-year, 50-year, and 75-year valuation periods. Summarized income rates are the sum of the present value of non-interest income for a period (which includes scheduled payroll taxes, the projected income from the taxation of scheduled benefits, and reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury) and the starting trust fund asset reserves, expressed as a percentage of the present value of taxable payroll over the period. Under current law, the total OASDI payroll tax rate will remain at 12.4 percent in the future. In contrast, the Trustees expect income from taxation of benefits, expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll, to increase in most years of the long-range period for two reasons. First, total scheduled benefits are rising faster than payroll. Second, the benefit-taxation threshold amounts are fixed (not indexed), so an increasing share of benefits will be subject to tax as incomes and benefits rise. Summarized cost rates are the sum of the present value of cost for a period (which includes scheduled benefits, administrative expenses, net interchange with the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries) and the present value of the cost of reaching a target trust fund of 100 percent of annual cost at the end of the period, expressed as a percentage of the present value of taxable payroll over the period.
The actuarial balance for a valuation period is equal to the difference between the summarized income rate and the summarized cost rate for the period. An actuarial balance of zero for any period indicates that cost for the period could be met for the period as a whole (but not necessarily at all points within the period), with a remaining trust fund reserve at the end of the period equal to 100 percent of the following year’s cost. A negative actuarial balance for a period indicates that the present value of income to the program plus the existing trust fund is less than the present value of the cost of the program plus the cost of reaching a target trust fund reserve of 1 year’s cost by the end of the period.
Payroll tax income, expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll, is generally slightly smaller than the actual tax rates in effect for each period. The reason for this difference is that workers receive earnings before the trust funds receive the corresponding payroll taxes. As a result of this timing difference, payroll tax income received in a given year includes taxes paid from a combination of the taxable payrolls for that year and prior years. When payroll tax income is divided by taxable payroll for a particular year (or period of years), the resulting income rate is slightly lower than the applicable tax rate for the period.
Table IV.B4 contains summarized rates for the intermediate, low-cost, and high-cost assumptions. The low-cost and high-cost assumptions define a wide range of possibilities. Financial outcomes as good as the low-cost scenario or as bad as the high-cost scenario are unlikely to occur.
For the 25-year valuation period, the OASDI program has an actuarial balance of 0.28 percent of taxable payroll under the low-cost assumptions, ‑1.27 percent under the intermediate assumptions, and -3.18 percent under the high-cost assumptions. These balances indicate that the program is adequately financed for the 25‑year valuation period under only the low-cost projections.
For the 50‑year valuation period, the OASDI program has actuarial balances of ‑0.17 percent under the low-cost assumptions, ‑2.25 percent under the intermediate assumptions, and ‑4.86 percent under the high-cost assumptions. These actuarial deficits mean that the program is not adequately financed for the 50‑year valuation period under the intermediate and high-cost sets of assumptions. Under the low-cost assumptions, trust fund reserves are not expected to deplete within the 50-year period.
For the entire 75-year valuation period, the combined OASDI program again has actuarial deficits under all three sets of assumptions. The actuarial balance for this long-range valuation period is ‑0.19 percent of taxable payroll under the low-cost assumptions, ‑2.72 percent under the intermediate assumptions, and ‑5.93 percent under the high-cost assumptions.
Assuming the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions accurately capture future demographic and economic trends, solvency for the program over the next 75 years could be restored using a variety of approaches. For example, revenues could be increased in a manner equivalent to an immediate and permanent increase in the combined Social Security payroll tax rate from 12.40 percent to 15.06 percent, cost could be reduced in a manner equivalent to an immediate and permanent reduction in scheduled benefits of 16.5 percent, or some combination of approaches could be used.
However, eliminating the actuarial deficit over the next 75 years requires raising payroll taxes or lowering benefits by more than is required just to achieve solvency, because the actuarial deficit includes the cost of attaining a target trust fund ratio equal to 100 percent of annual program cost by the end of the period. The actuarial deficit could be eliminated for the 75-year period by increasing revenues in a manner equivalent to an immediate and permanent increase in the combined payroll tax from 12.40 percent to 15.22 percent,2 reducing cost in a manner equivalent to an immediate reduction in scheduled benefits of 17.3 percent, or some combination of approaches could be used.
Under the intermediate assumptions, the OASDI program has large annual deficits toward the end of the long-range period that are increasing and reach 4.77 percent of payroll for 2087 (see table IV.B1). These large deficits indicate that annual cost continues to exceed non-interest income after 2087, so continued adequate financing would require larger changes than those needed to maintain solvency for the 75-year period. Over the period extending through the infinite horizon, the actuarial deficit is 4.0 percent of taxable payroll under the intermediate assumptions. The projected infinite horizon shortfall could be eliminated with additional revenue equivalent to an immediate increase in the combined payroll tax rate from 12.4 percent to about 16.6 percent.3 This shortfall could be eliminated by reducing cost in a manner equivalent to an immediate and permanent reduction in benefits for all current and future beneficiaries by 23.9 percent.
The financial shortfall of the DI program is substantially worse than that of the OASI program for the first 25 years when measured relative to the level of program cost. Summarized over the full 75-year period, however, long-range deficits for the OASI and DI programs under intermediate assumptions are more similar measured relative to the level of program cost. Increases in longevity after 2027, when the disability conversion age remains fixed, have a greater effect on OASI cost than on DI cost. As a result of this greater effect on OASI cost, the financial status of the OASI program in the later portion of the 75‑year projection period is worse than the financial status of the DI program.
.
Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.
Table IV.B5 presents the components and the calculation of the long-range (75-year) actuarial balance under the intermediate assumptions. The present value of future cost less future non-interest income over the long-range period, minus the amount of trust fund asset reserves at the beginning of the projection period, amounts to $9.6 trillion for the OASDI program. This amount is the 75-year “open group unfunded obligation” (see row H). The actuarial deficit (which is the negative of the actuarial balance) combines this unfunded obligation with the present value of the ending target trust fund and expresses the total as a percentage of the present value of the taxable payroll for the period. The present value of future non-interest income minus cost, plus starting trust fund reserves, minus the present value of the ending target trust fund, is ‑$10.1 trillion for the OASDI program. The actuarial balance , expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll for the period, is ‑2.72 percent.
 
E.

a
The calculation of the actuarial balance includes the cost of accumulating a target trust fund reserve equal to 100 percent of annual cost at the end of the period.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.
The open group unfunded obligation (row H in the table above) increased from $8.6 trillion shown in last year's report to $9.6 trillion in this report. If there had been no changes in starting values, assumptions, laws, or methods for this report, then the open group unfunded obligation would have increased to $9.1 trillion solely due to the change in the valuation period. This expected increase in the unfunded obligation occurs because: (1) the unfunded obligation is now discounted to January 1, 2013, rather than to January 1, 2012, which tends to increase the unfunded obligation by the annual nominal interest rate; and (2) the unfunded obligation now includes an additional year (2087). However, changes in assumptions, methods, and starting values resulted a net additional $0.5 trillion increase in the unfunded obligation. This net additional measured increase in the present value of the unfunded obligation may be explained by the lower projected real interest rates on trust fund reserves through the first 15 years of the projection period. Through this period, real interest accumulation is 5 percent less than in last year's report, resulting in a 5 percent less “discounting” of future annual shortfalls. Other changes combined to have only a small net effect on the unfunded obligation for this year's report. For additional details on these changes, see section IV.B.6.
The change in the actuarial deficit is more complicated. The actuarial deficit was 2.67 percent of payroll in last year’s report, and was expected to increase to a deficit of 2.72 percent of payroll solely due to the change in the valuation period. Given the additional increase noted above for the unfunded obligation, an increase beyond the valuation-period effect might have been expected for the actuarial deficit as well. However, this did not happen even though the numerator of the actuarial deficit is very similar to the unfunded obligation. (The numerator of the actuarial deficit includes the ending target trust fund reserve and the unfunded obligation does not.) The actuarial deficit did not have a corresponding increase because the denominator of the actuarial deficit (present value of taxable payroll) also increased more than expected, primarily as a result of lower projected real interest rates on trust fund reserves through the first 15 years of the projection period.
5. Additional Measures of OASDI Unfunded Obligations
A negative actuarial balance (i.e., an actuarial deficit) is one measure of the unfunded obligation of the program. This subsection presents two additional measures of OASDI unfunded obligations under the intermediate assumptions.
a. Open Group Unfunded Obligations
Consistent with practice since 1965, this report focuses on a 75-year open group valuation to evaluate the long-run financial status of the OASDI program. The open group valuation includes non-interest income and cost for past, current, and future participants through the year 2087. The second line of table IV.B6 shows that the present value of the open group unfunded obligation for the program is $9.6 trillion over 2013-87. The open group unfunded obligation measures the adequacy of financing over the period as a whole for a program financed on a pay-as-you-go basis. On this basis, payroll taxes and scheduled benefits for all participants are included through 2087.
Table IV.B6 also presents the 75-year unfunded obligation as percentages of future OASDI taxable payroll and GDP through 2087. The 75-year unfunded obligation as a percentage of taxable payroll is less than the actuarial deficit, because the unfunded obligation excludes the ending target trust fund value (see table IV.B5).
Consideration of summary measures alone (such as the actuarial balance and open group unfunded obligation) for a 75-year period can lead to incorrect perceptions and to policy prescriptions that do not achieve sustainable solvency. These concerns can be addressed by considering the trend in trust fund ratios toward the end of the period. See the discussion of “sustainable solvency” beginning on page 47.
Another measure that reflects all annual balances, even those after 75 years, is the unfunded obligation extended over the infinite horizon. The extension of the time period past 75 years assumes that the current-law OASDI program and the demographic and economic trends used for the 75‑year projection continue indefinitely.
Table IV.B6 reports that the OASDI open group unfunded obligation over the infinite horizon is $23.1 trillion, which is $13.5 trillion larger than for the 75‑year period. The $13.5 trillion increment reflects a significant financing gap projected for OASDI for years after 2087. Of course, the degree of uncertainty associated with estimates increases substantially for years further in the future.
The $23.1 trillion infinite horizon open group unfunded obligation is 4.0 percent of taxable payroll or 1.4 percent of GDP. These relative measures of the unfunded obligation over the infinite horizon express its magnitude in relation to the resources potentially available to finance the shortfall.
 
Unfunded obligation through the infinite horizon a
Unfunded obligation through 2087 b

a
Present value of future cost less future non-interest income, reduced by the amount of trust fund asset reserves at the beginning of 2013. Expressed as a percentage of payroll and GDP for the period 2013 through the infinite horizon.

b
Present value of future cost less future non-interest income through 2087, reduced by the amount of trust fund reserves at the beginning of 2013. Expressed as a percentage of payroll and GDP for the period 2013 through 2087.

Notes:
1. The present values of future taxable payroll for 2013-87 and for 2013 through the infinite horizon are $372.2 trillion and $579.0 trillion, respectively.
2. The present values of GDP for 2013-87 and for 2013 through the infinite horizon are $1,030.2 trillion and $1,707.8 trillion, respectively. Present values of GDP shown in the Medicare Trustees Report differ slightly due to the use of interest discount rates that are specific to each program’s trust fund holdings.
Last year, the Trustees projected that the infinite horizon unfunded obligation was $20.5 trillion in present value. If the assumptions, methods, and starting values had not changed, moving the valuation date forward by 1 year would have increased the unfunded obligation by about $0.9 trillion, to $21.4 trillion. The net effects of changes in assumptions, methods, law, and starting values increased the infinite horizon unfunded obligation by an additional $1.7 trillion, to $23.1 trillion in present value.
The infinite horizon unfunded obligation is 0.1 percentage point higher than in last year’s report when expressed as a share of taxable payroll, and about the same as last year when expressed as a share of GDP. The main changes affecting the infinite horizon unfunded obligation for this report are revised starting values (such as lower mortality rates), legislative changes, changes in near-term economic assumptions, adjustments in average benefit level projections, and other method changes. See section IV.B.6 for details regarding changes in law, data, methods, and assumptions.
b. Unfunded Obligations for Past, Current, and Future Participants
Table IV.B7 separates the components of the infinite horizon unfunded obligation (with the exception of general fund reimbursements) among past, current, and future participants. The table does not separate past general fund reimbursements among participants because there is no clear basis for attributing the reimbursements across generations.
The excess of the present value of cost for past and current participants4 over the present value of dedicated tax income for past and current participants produces an unfunded obligation for past and current participants of $24.3 trillion. Table IV.B7 also shows an unfunded obligation of $23.7 trillion for past and current participants, including past and future general fund reimbursements. Future participants will pay dedicated taxes of $0.6 trillion more into the system than the cost of their benefits ($51.0 trillion of dedicated tax income as compared to $50.4 trillion of cost). The unfunded obligation for all participants through the infinite horizon thus equals $23.1 trillion.
This accounting demonstrates that some generations are scheduled to receive benefits with a present value exceeding the present value of their dedicated tax income, while other generations are scheduled to receive benefits with a present value less than the present value of their dedicated tax income, whether past general fund reimbursements are included or not. Making Social Security solvent over the infinite horizon requires some combination of increased revenue or reduced benefits for current and future participants amounting to $23.1 trillion in present value, 4.0 percent of future taxable payroll, or 1.4 percent of future GDP.
 
Less present value of past general fund reimbursementsa

a
Distribution of general fund reimbursements among past, current, and future participants cannot be determined.

b
Less than 0.05 percent of GDP.

c
Less than $50 billion.

d
Less than 0.05 percent of taxable payroll.

Notes:
1. The present value of future taxable payroll for 2013 through the infinite horizon is $579.0 trillion.
2. The present value of GDP for 2013 through the infinite horizon is $1,707.8 trillion.
3. Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.
6. Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report
Table IV.B8 shows the effects of changes on the long-range actuarial balance, by category, between last year’s report and this report.
 
Valuation period a

a
The change in the 75-year valuation period from last year’s report to this report means that the 75-year actuarial balance now includes the relatively large negative annual balance for 2086. This change in the valuation period results in a larger long-range actuarial deficit. The actuarial deficit includes the trust fund reserve at the beginning of the projection period.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.
If the assumptions, methods, starting values, and the law had all remained unchanged from last year’s Trustees Report, the OASDI long-range actuarial balance would have decreased (become more negative) by 0.06 percent of taxable payroll solely due to the change in the valuation period. However, as described below, this report includes changes in law, data, assumptions, and methods. Though significant when considered separately, these changes combine to produce a negligible effect on the actuarial balance. The actuarial balance changed from -2.67 percent of taxable payroll in last year's report to -2.72 percent in this report.
Since the last report, one law was enacted and one policy implemented that are expected to have significant financial effects on the OASDI program. See section III.B for details. The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, enacted on January 2, 2013, reduces Federal marginal income tax rates for most beneficiaries and thus lowers projected revenue from taxation of benefits. The enactment of this law results in a decrease in the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.15 percent of taxable payroll. In addition, the policy directive, The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, which was implemented on June 15, 2012, provides protection from deportation and an opportunity to work legally for many unauthorized immigrants who entered the country before age 16 and were under age 31 on June 15, 2012. Under the assumption that this policy will be extended for the affected group indefinitely, the long-range OASDI actuarial balance is increased by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll.
Changing the 75-year valuation period from 2012-86 to 2013-87 decreased the projected long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.06 percent of taxable payroll. This decrease is the result of including the relatively large negative annual balance for 2087 in this year’s 75-year projection period. Note that the annual balance for 2012 is not excluded from this year’s 75-year projection period because the actuarial balance includes trust fund asset reserves at the beginning of the projection period. These reserves at the start of the period reflect the program’s net financial flows for all past years up to the start of the projection period.
Changes in ultimate assumptions and recent data for immigration have significant but largely offsetting effects on the actuarial balance for this year’s report. The assumed ultimate annual immigration of “other immigrants” (those entering the country without legal permanent resident status) is now 1.4 million, compared to 1.5 million assumed for last year’s report. The assumed ultimate annual number of persons attaining legal permanent resident status is now 1.05 million, compared to 1.0 million assumed for last year’s report. The distribution of this ultimate number between those entering the country with legal permanent resident status and those adjusting status after having already entered the country was also revised. The ultimate annual number of new immigrants entering the country with legal permanent resident status is now 0.6 million, compared to 0.5 million for last year’s report. The ultimate annual number attaining legal permanent resident status by adjusting status after having already entered the country is now 0.45 million, compared to 0.5 million for last year’s report. Reasons for these changes include: (1) the expectation of continued tighter border control in the future; (2) the assumed continuation of a recent increase in the number attaining legal permanent resident status as immediate relatives; and (3) the assumed continuation of a recent increase in the proportion of persons attaining legal permanent resident status upon entering the country (rather than adjusting status after entry). These changes in ultimate assumptions plus adjustments to levels of immigration for the early years of the projection period to reflect recent experience and the projected economic recovery have the net effect of increasing the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll.
The Trustees did not change the ultimate assumptions for other demographic factors this year. However, updating the starting values for these factors, the way these values transition to ultimate assumed levels, and other demographic changes, combined to decrease the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.17 percent of taxable payroll. The following paragraph describes the three updates that had significant effects on the long-range OASDI actuarial balance.
First, final mortality data for 2008 and 2009 show substantially larger reductions in death rates than expected in last year’s report. These new data result in a lower starting level of death rates for the projections and a faster rate of decline in death rates over the next 25 years. The age-sex-adjusted death rate dropped by 3.5 percent from 2008 to 2009. This dramatic one-year drop contributes to an average annual rate of decline of 1.6 percent in the age-sex-adjusted death rate from 2000-2009, more than double the average annual rate of decline from 1982-2000. The effects of these final data decrease the long-range actuarial balance by 0.20 percent of taxable payroll. Second, final fertility (birth) data for 2009 and 2010, and preliminary data for 2011, indicate lower birth rates for these years than were assumed for last year’s report. The Trustees recognize the effect of the recent economic recession on the total fertility rate for 2009 and 2010 and assume the path of the total fertility rate over the first 25 years of the projection period will reflect the economic recovery. The additional fertility data and the altered path of fertility over the first 25 years of the projection period combined to decrease the long-range actuarial balance by 0.04 percent of taxable payroll. Third, incorporating new historical data for marital status, for the number of new marriages, for “other immigration,” and for the size of the population (based on the 2010 Census) combined to increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.06 percent of taxable payroll.
The Trustees did not change any of the ultimate economic assumptions this year. However, updated starting values and changes in near-term economic assumptions combined for a net decrease in the long-range OASDI actuarial balance of 0.03 percent of payroll. Lower real interest rates on trust fund investments projected for the next 10 years decreased the actuarial balance by 0.05 percent of payroll for this year’s report. Other changes in starting values and near-term growth rate assumptions combined to increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.02 percent of taxable payroll.
The Trustees did not change ultimate disability incidence or termination rates from those in the prior report. However, slightly lower near term incidence rates reflecting recent experience increased the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll.
The projections in this report also reflect several methodological improvements and updates of program-specific data. These methodological changes, updates, and interactions combined to increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance by 0.35 percent of taxable payroll. Descriptions of six significant methodological changes and updates follow.
The first methodological improvement alters the alignment of projected labor force participation rates with future trends in disability, longevity, and population levels. Future changes in disability prevalence now affect the labor force participation by: (1) extending the modeled effect of disability prevalence to ages over 72, and (2) reducing the modeled effects of disability prevalence at increasing ages where workers tend to retire regardless of ability to work. The starting year for longevity changes used in the participation rate projections is now consistent with the starting year for those projections. These changes in labor force participation rates increased the long-range actuarial balance by 0.01 percent of taxable payroll.
The second methodological improvement develops the ultimate age-sex specific unemployment rates based on the relative levels of long-term historical patterns through the most recent historical year. This improvement is expected to substantially reduce volatility in projected levels of these rates between Trustees Reports. This change increased the long-range actuarial balance for this year’s report by 0.06 percent of taxable payroll.
The third methodological improvement separates modeling the number of workers insured under the program into two groups by residency status: (1) citizens and immigrants with legal permanent resident status, and (2) other immigrants. While employment rates are assumed to be the same for these two groups, the first group is far more likely to be in OASDI “covered” employment, paying payroll taxes and accumulating earnings credits for insured status. Detailed modeling is done for the first group using historical and projected rates of covered employment specific to their resident status. Because the rate of covered employment is much lower for the second group (other immigrants), their likelihood of being insured is estimated to be much lower. Separate modeling for these groups is important because their relative sizes in the total population have been changing and will continue to do so. In addition, the likelihood of being in covered employment has also changed, particularly for the second group due to greater scrutiny in recent years in issuing Social Security numbers. Compared to last year’s report, this methodological improvement results in less of the 60-64 population attaining fully insured status during the period 2030 to 2055. Together these changes in the projected relationship of covered work, insured status, and earnings histories increased the OASDI actuarial balance by 0.09 percent of taxable payroll.
The fourth significant change relates to the projection of average benefit levels for workers who will become eligible for benefits in the future. The historical sample of earnings histories for new beneficiaries, which is the starting point for the long-range projection of average benefit levels, is now updated to reflect new benefit entitlements in 2008. The 2007 sample served as the basis for the projections in the prior report. The update of this sample resulted in an increase in the long-range OASDI actuarial balance of about 0.05 percent of taxable payroll.
The fifth significant change improves the alignment of projections of income from taxation of benefits after the tenth year of the projection period with projections over the first ten years. This change resulted in an increase in the income from taxation of benefits and an increase in the long-range OASDI actuarial balance of about 0.05 percent of taxable payroll.
Finally, updating programmatic data, method changes for projecting beneficiaries and benefit levels over the first 10 years of the projection period, other small methodological improvements, and interactions resulted in an increase in the long-range OASDI actuarial balance of about 0.09 percent of taxable payroll.
Figure IV.B4 compares the annual cash-flow balances for this report and the prior year’s report for the combined OASDI program over the long-range (75-year) projection period. The figure illustrates the annual effects of the changes described earlier in this section.
 
Compared to last year’s report, the annual balance (income rate minus cost rate) in this year’s report is: (1) more negative through 2019; (2) less negative for 2020 through 2057; and (3) more negative for the reminder of the long-range period. Differences between the annual balances in the two reports are less than 0.2 percent of taxable payroll over first 7 years of the projection period, mainly due to reflecting 3.1 percent less real wage growth over the period 2012 through 2014 in this year’s report. After 2022, the differences become increasingly less negative and peak in 2031. In 2031, the annual balance in this report is 0.4 percent higher than projected in last year’s report. The higher (less negative) annual balances for 2020 through 2057 are mainly due to: (1) a reduction in the proportion of the population that is insured for benefits during this time period, a direct consequence of the refined insured model described above, and (2) more legal immigrants working and living in the country. These changes more than outweigh the increase in the beneficiary population due to the lower mortality rates. After 2057, the lower annual balances in this year’s report are mainly due to: (1) beneficiaries living longer, reflecting lower mortality rates at age 65 and older, and (2) lower income for taxation of benefits, reflecting tax legislation enacted at the beginning of 2013.
The annual deficit for 2086 is 4.72 percent of taxable payroll in this report, compared to 4.50 percent for 2086 in last year's report. This difference equals the projected loss of income from taxation of benefits due to the recent tax legislation. However, other offsetting effects are important to mention. At the very end of the long-range period, the working age population is almost the same as in last year’s report, but the beneficiary age population is almost 2 percent larger. Offsetting some of the negative effect of this age shift is a 2‑percent increase in the projected number of covered workers. The greater number of covered workers reflects the increased number of assumed legal immigrants and higher labor force participation.
 

1
Adjustments include adding deemed wage credits based on military service for 1983-2001 and reflecting the lower effective tax rates (as compared to the combined employee-employer rate) that apply to multiple-employer “excess wages.” Lower rates also applied to net earnings from self-employment before 1984 and to income from tips before 1988.

2
The indicated increase in the payroll tax rate of 2.82 percent is somewhat larger than the 2.72 percent 75‑year actuarial deficit because the indicated increase reflects a behavioral response to tax rate changes. In particular, the calculation assumes that an increase in payroll taxes results in a small shift of wages and salaries to forms of employee compensation that are not subject to the payroll tax.

3
The indicated increase in the payroll tax rate of 4.2 percent is somewhat larger than the 4.0 percent infinite horizon actuarial deficit because the indicated increase reflects a behavioral response to tax rate changes. In particular, the calculation assumes that an increase in payroll taxes results in a small shift of wages and salaries to forms of employee compensation that are not subject to the payroll tax.

4
Individuals who attain age 15 or older in 2013.


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