Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001 Actuarial Study No. 115 Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.

## V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

### B. HIGH-COST ASSUMPTIONS

Table V.B1—Selected OASDI Short-Range Economic Assumptions
(High-cost alternative, calendar years 2001-10)
Year
Average annual percentage increase in-
Real-wage
differential 1
(percent)
Average annual
interest rate 2
(percent)
Average annual
unemployment
rate3
(percent)
Average annual
percentage
increase in
labor force 4
Real GDP 5
Average annual
wage in covered
employment
Consumer Price
Index 6
2001
0.8
2.9
3.1
-0.3
5.2
4.7
0.9
2002
.8
3.6
3.4
.2
5.9
5.6
.7
2003
3.1
6.8
5.0
1.7
8.3
5.4
.8
2004
-.7
4.3
6.1
-1.8
7.5
6.3
.7
2005
1.3
5.2
4.4
.7
6.7
7.3
.3
2006
3.3
5.9
3.8
2.1
7.0
6.6
.9
2007
2.1
5.0
4.1
1.0
6.6
6.4
.9
2008
1.7
4.8
4.3
.5
6.5
6.5
.8
2009
1.6
4.8
4.3
.4
6.5
6.5
.6
2010
1.7
4.9
4.3
.6
6.5
6.5
.7
 1 The real-wage differential is the difference between nominal wage growth and inflation. This differential is calculated as the percent change in average annual covered wages minus the percent change in the average annual CPI-W. Numbers may not add due to rounding. 2 The average annual interest rate is the average of the 12 monthly nominal interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds. In practice, these rates are compounded semiannually. 3 The rates shown are unadjusted civilian unemployment rates. 4 Labor force is the total for the United States (including military personnel) and reflects the average of the monthly numbers of persons in the labor force for each year. 5 The real GDP (gross domestic product) is the market value of all final goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S., expressed in 1996 dollars. 6 The Consumer Price Index is the average annual value for the calendar year of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

Source: Rates projected by the Office of the Chief Actuary.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report high-cost set of assumptions.

Table V.B2—Average Amount of Total Wages 1
(High-cost alternative, calendar years 2000-10)
Year
Average wage
2000
\$32,074.32
2001
33,075.64
2002
34,268.35
2003
36,541.14
2004
38,138.27
2005
40,100.04
2006
42,440.05
2007
44,574.76
2008
46,686.87
2009
48,896.61
2010
51,265.10
 1 Average wages used for Social Security indexing purposes.

Source
: Projections from the Office of the Chief Actuary.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report high-cost set of assumptions.

List of Studies
December 26, 2001