Research and Analysis by Joyce Manchester

Have People Delayed Claiming Retirement Benefits? Responses to Changes in Social Security Rules
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 67 No. 2 (released February 2008)
by Jae G. Song and Joyce Manchester

Using a 1 percent sample of Social Security Administration data, this article documents and analyzes responses in the entitlement age for old-age benefits following the recent changes in Social Security rules. Both rules, the removal of the retirement earnings test (RET) for persons who are at the full retirement age (FRA) through age 69 in 2000 or later and a gradual increase in the FRA for those who reach age 62 in 2000 or later, are expected to affect the age at which people claim Social Security retirement benefits (or entitlement age) and the work behavior of older Americans.

How Have People Responded to Changes in the Retirement Earnings Test in 2000?
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 67 No. 1 (released August 2007)
by Jae G. Song and Joyce Manchester

This article explores how individuals affected by the removal of the earnings test have changed their participation in the workforce and the amount that they earn. It also looks at changes in benefit claiming among those who have reached the full retirement age. Results are based on longitudinal data from the Social Security Administration that cover the 4 years before and after the change.

New Evidence on Earnings and Benefit Claims Following Changes in the Retirement Earnings Test in 2000
ORES Working Paper No. 107 (released June 2006)
by Jae G. Song and Joyce Manchester

In April 2000, Congress enacted the Senior Citizens Freedom to Work Act of 2000, which removed the retirement earnings test for individuals at the full retirement age and older. This paper examines the labor force activity of workers aged 65–69 relative to older and younger workers in response to the removal of the earnings test. We use the 1 percent sample of Social Security administrative data that covers the period from 4 years before to 4 years following the removal of the test. Quantile regression methods allow us to identify the earnings levels of workers who change their work effort.

Stochastic Models of the Social Security Trust Funds
Research and Statistics Note No. 2003-01 (released March 2003)
by Joyce Manchester and Clark Burdick

Stochastic Models of the Social Security Trust Funds
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 65 No. 1 (released May 2004)
by Clark Burdick and Joyce Manchester

The 2003 Trustees Report on the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds contains, for the first time, results from a stochastic model of the combined trust funds of the OASDI programs. To help interpret the new stochastic results and place them in context, the Social Security Administration's Office of Policy arranged for three external modeling groups to produce alternative stochastic results. This article demonstrates that the stochastic models deliver broadly consistent results even though they use significantly different approaches and assumptions. However, the results also demonstrate that the variation in trust fund outcomes differs as the approach and assumptions are varied.

What Can We Learn from Analyzing Historical Data on Social Security Entitlements?
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 71 No. 4 (released November 2011)
by Joyce Manchester and Jae G. Song

Data from administrative records of the Social Security Administration allow us to examine patterns of initial entitlement to Old-Age Insurance benefits as well as Disability Insurance benefits. We follow cohorts born in different years over their lifetimes to identify changes in entitlements by age over time. Breaking out single birth cohorts shows close adherence in entitlement ages to rule changes as well as increasing shares of cohorts relying on the Disability Insurance program in middle age.