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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Reduce the Cost-of-Living
Adjustment (COLA)

Details: Base it on the Chained Consumer Price Index CPI

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 90% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 91% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Male 88% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 82% 0% -1% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 91% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 91% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Other countries 85% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 69% 0% -1% -1% 0%
70–79 100% 0% -1% -1% -1%
80–89 100% 0% -1% -1% -1%
90 or older 100% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Marital status
Married 88% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Divorced 90% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Widowed 95% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Never married 87% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 94% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Bachelor 91% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Associate 88% 0% -1% -1% 0%
High school 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Less than high school 87% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 90% 0% -1% -1% -1%
In poverty 82% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 92% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Second highest 90% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Middle 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Second lowest 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Lowest 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 89% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 95% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 95% 0% -1% -1% -1%
Disabled worker only 71% 0% -1% -1% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Sex
Female 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Male 90% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 89% 0% -7% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 90% 0% -7% -3% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 94% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Country of birth
United States 90% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Other countries 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Age
60–69 68% 0% -3% -1% 0%
70–79 100% 0% -5% -3% -2%
80–89 100% 0% -7% -6% -5%
90 or older 100% 0% -7% -7% -7%
Marital status
Married 90% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Divorced 90% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Widowed 97% 0% -7% -6% -2%
Never married 86% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Bachelor 94% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Associate 89% 0% -7% -4% 0%
High school 90% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Less than high school 87% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
In poverty 85% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Second highest 90% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Middle 90% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Second lowest 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Lowest 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 90% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 95% 0% -7% -6% -2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 94% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Disabled worker only 72% 0% -5% -1% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Sex
Female 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Male 90% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 88% 0% -7% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Country of birth
United States 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Other countries 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Age
60–69 68% 0% -3% -1% 0%
70–79 100% 0% -5% -3% -2%
80–89 100% 0% -7% -6% -5%
90 or older 100% 0% -11% -8% -7%
Marital status
Married 90% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Divorced 90% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Widowed 98% 0% -10% -6% -2%
Never married 89% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 94% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Bachelor 94% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Associate 89% 0% -8% -4% 0%
High school 90% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Less than high school 87% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
In poverty 85% 0% -9% -4% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 92% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Second highest 89% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Middle 90% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Second lowest 91% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Lowest 92% 0% -8% -4% -1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 91% 0% -7% -4% -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 96% 0% -10% -6% -2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 94% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Disabled worker only 75% 0% -6% -2% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 33% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 27% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 29% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 40% 0% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 28% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 28% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 36% 0% -1% 0% 0%
80–89 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
90 or older 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Divorced 38% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widowed 37% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 36% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 30% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 37% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 38% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 28% 0% -1% 0% 0%
In poverty 56% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 55% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Lowest 73% 0% -1% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 27% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 43% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 27% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 65% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 69% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Male 61% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 63% 0% -4% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 66% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -5% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 66% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Other countries 64% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
70–79 72% 0% -3% -1% 0%
80–89 89% 0% -5% -3% 0%
90 or older 79% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Marital status
Married 64% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Divorced 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widowed 78% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Never married 55% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 54% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Bachelor 64% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Associate 69% 0% -4% -1% 0%
High school 70% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Less than high school 62% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 65% 0% -4% -1% 0%
In poverty 74% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 58% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Middle 74% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Second lowest 85% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Lowest 85% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 63% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 80% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 70% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 67% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 71% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Male 63% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -5% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 58% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 68% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Other countries 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
70–79 73% 0% -4% -1% 0%
80–89 89% 0% -6% -3% 0%
90 or older 92% 0% -7% -3% -1%
Marital status
Married 65% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Divorced 67% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widowed 83% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Never married 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Bachelor 66% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Associate 71% 0% -5% -1% 0%
High school 71% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Less than high school 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 67% 0% -5% -1% 0%
In poverty 76% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 27% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 59% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Middle 76% 0% -4% -2% 0%
Second lowest 86% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Lowest 88% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 65% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 83% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 70% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 49% 0% -3% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 6% 6% 4,062 4,224 161 3%
Sex
Female 6% 6% 2,368 2,476 107 4%
Male 5% 5% 1,693 1,748 54 3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 10% 10% 788 814 26 3%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 2,250 2,334 83 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 10% 11% 732 770 38 5%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 292 305 13 4%
Country of birth
United States 5% 5% 2,969 3,095 125 4%
Other countries 10% 10% 1,092 1,129 36 3%
Age
60–69 8% 9% 1,986 2,056 70 3%
70–79 5% 5% 1,556 1,634 77 4%
80–89 3% 3% 469 483 14 3%
90 or older 2% 2% 50 50 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 855 886 31 3%
Divorced 10% 11% 1,365 1,440 74 5%
Widowed 7% 7% 901 939 38 4%
Never married 18% 19% 941 959 17 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 117 119 2 1%
Bachelor 3% 3% 386 401 15 3%
Associate 5% 5% 842 882 40 4%
High school 7% 7% 1,910 1,991 81 4%
Less than high school 14% 14% 807 830 23 2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 162 161 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 4,062 4,062 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 6% 6% 2,764 2,855 91 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 734 781 47 6%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 256 269 13 5%
Disabled worker only 11% 12% 308 318 10 3%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 6% 4,247 4,857 609 14%
Sex
Female 5% 6% 2,446 2,787 340 13%
Male 5% 5% 1,801 2,070 268 14%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 8% 1,112 1,261 148 13%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,992 2,312 319 16%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 9% 759 858 99 13%
All other races, non-Hispanic 6% 7% 384 426 41 10%
Country of birth
United States 4% 5% 2,904 3,307 403 13%
Other countries 7% 8% 1,343 1,549 206 15%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,559 1,637 77 4%
70–79 5% 5% 1,496 1,676 180 12%
80–89 5% 6% 978 1,247 269 27%
90 or older 3% 4% 214 296 82 38%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 813 897 84 10%
Divorced 8% 9% 1,233 1,422 188 15%
Widowed 6% 7% 914 1,124 210 22%
Never married 13% 14% 1,286 1,413 126 9%
Highest education level
Graduate 2% 2% 198 223 25 12%
Bachelor 2% 3% 388 466 78 20%
Associate 4% 5% 827 977 149 18%
High school 7% 8% 1,879 2,145 265 14%
Less than high school 13% 14% 954 1,046 91 9%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0 610 609 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 4,247 4,247 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 6% 3,150 3,519 368 11%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 5% 6% 606 784 178 29%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 4% 5% 263 318 54 20%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 228 236 8 3%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 4% 2,953 3,380 427 14%
Sex
Female 3% 4% 1,652 1,897 245 14%
Male 3% 3% 1,301 1,483 182 14%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 5% 961 1,084 122 12%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 3% 1,193 1,403 209 17%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 6% 468 526 58 12%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 331 368 36 11%
Country of birth
United States 3% 3% 1,927 2,240 313 16%
Other countries 5% 6% 1,026 1,141 114 11%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 1,017 1,064 46 4%
70–79 3% 3% 1,050 1,197 147 14%
80–89 3% 4% 671 825 153 22%
90 or older 3% 3% 215 295 80 37%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 510 578 68 13%
Divorced 4% 4% 736 816 80 10%
Widowed 4% 4% 515 652 136 26%
Never married 7% 8% 1,192 1,334 142 11%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 162 174 12 7%
Bachelor 1% 2% 226 288 62 27%
Associate 2% 3% 503 576 72 14%
High school 5% 5% 1,289 1,488 198 15%
Less than high school 8% 9% 773 855 81 10%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 429 429 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,953 2,951 -1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 4% 2,314 2,590 275 11%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 330 447 116 35%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 150 171 20 13%
Disabled worker only 4% 5% 158 173 15 9%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 78% 0% -5% -3% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 139% 437%
Sex
Female 82% 0% -5% -3% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 175% 625%
Male 74% 0% -4% -3% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 115% 257%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 76% 0% -4% -3% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 156% 557%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 135% 392%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -4% -2% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 144% 462%
All other races, non-Hispanic 74% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 141% 491%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -5% -3% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 136% 401%
Other countries 76% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 158% 577%
Highest education level
Graduate 87% 0% -5% -4% -1% 23% 125% 264% 23% 120% 251%
Bachelor 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 22% 137% 362% 22% 132% 346%
Associate 79% 0% -5% -3% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 141% 379%
High school 74% 0% -4% -3% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 148% 506%
Less than high school 65% 0% -4% -2% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 156% 779%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -5% -3% -1% 39% 108% 157% 39% 104% 150%
Second highest 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 24% 134% 201% 24% 129% 192%
Middle 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 154% 258%
Second lowest 72% 0% -5% -2% 0% 23% 228% 504% 22% 220% 488%
Lowest 59% 0% -5% -2% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 245% 1,512%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 95% 0% -5% -4% -2% 47% 108% 152% 46% 104% 145%
Second highest 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 25% 136% 202% 25% 131% 193%
Middle 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 156% 254%
Second lowest 73% 0% -5% -2% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 210% 440%
Lowest 55% 0% -5% -2% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 298% 1,546%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2% 56% 115% 194% 55% 111% 185%
Second highest 88% 0% -5% -3% -1% 36% 139% 269% 36% 133% 258%
Middle 82% 0% -5% -3% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 153% 349%
Second lowest 72% 0% -4% -2% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 179% 507%
Lowest 52% 0% -4% -2% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 199% 1,113%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 80% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 129% 404% 0% 124% 385%
Sex
Female 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 156% 570% 0% 150% 542%
Male 77% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 110% 275% 0% 106% 264%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 74% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 133% 447% 0% 129% 426%
White, non-Hispanic 85% 0% -5% -3% -1% 11% 130% 403% 11% 125% 385%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -4% -3% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 125% 345%
All other races, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -5% -4% -1% 0% 104% 383% 0% 100% 363%
Country of birth
United States 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 6% 130% 369% 6% 125% 353%
Other countries 70% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 125% 602% 0% 120% 570%
Highest education level
Graduate 88% 0% -5% -4% -1% 17% 113% 278% 17% 108% 266%
Bachelor 85% 0% -5% -4% -1% 5% 117% 311% 5% 113% 295%
Associate 81% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 133% 348% 0% 128% 333%
High school 78% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 143% 533% 0% 138% 513%
Less than high school 68% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 133% 627% 0% 129% 598%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 94% 0% -5% -4% -1% 40% 96% 138% 39% 92% 131%
Second highest 89% 0% -5% -3% -1% 31% 128% 192% 31% 123% 184%
Middle 85% 0% -5% -3% -1% 26% 157% 271% 26% 151% 260%
Second lowest 79% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 212% 539%
Lowest 53% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 118% 1,981%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 95% 0% -5% -4% -2% 42% 96% 137% 41% 92% 131%
Second highest 90% 0% -5% -3% -1% 39% 129% 194% 38% 124% 185%
Middle 85% 0% -5% -3% -1% 24% 159% 274% 24% 153% 261%
Second lowest 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 208% 482%
Lowest 49% 0% -6% -3% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 93% 2,114%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2% 46% 99% 163% 45% 95% 154%
Second highest 91% 0% -5% -3% -1% 44% 131% 267% 43% 125% 252%
Middle 87% 0% -5% -3% -1% 35% 158% 359% 35% 152% 344%
Second lowest 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 182% 550%
Lowest 45% 0% -5% -2% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 37% 1,013%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 120% 357% 0% 115% 341%
Sex
Female 85% 0% -6% -4% -1% 5% 145% 519% 5% 139% 495%
Male 79% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 103% 246% 0% 99% 236%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 77% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 125% 401% 0% 121% 383%
White, non-Hispanic 87% 0% -5% -4% -1% 17% 120% 343% 17% 115% 326%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 76% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 114% 321%
All other races, non-Hispanic 78% 0% -5% -4% -1% 0% 105% 349% 0% 101% 332%
Country of birth
United States 85% 0% -5% -3% -1% 9% 120% 319% 9% 115% 304%
Other countries 73% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 121% 565% 0% 117% 537%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -5% -4% -1% 21% 109% 259% 21% 104% 246%
Bachelor 87% 0% -5% -4% -1% 13% 110% 278% 12% 105% 262%
Associate 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 124% 318% 0% 119% 305%
High school 79% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 129% 441% 0% 125% 423%
Less than high school 72% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 125% 594% 0% 121% 562%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -5% -4% -2% 40% 88% 127% 39% 84% 121%
Second highest 91% 0% -5% -3% -1% 34% 118% 177% 34% 113% 168%
Middle 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 30% 144% 246% 30% 138% 235%
Second lowest 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 9% 196% 466% 9% 189% 444%
Lowest 55% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 119% 1,657%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2% 43% 89% 127% 42% 85% 121%
Second highest 91% 0% -5% -3% -1% 38% 119% 179% 38% 114% 170%
Middle 87% 0% -5% -3% -1% 27% 144% 249% 27% 138% 237%
Second lowest 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 13% 192% 442% 13% 185% 422%
Lowest 53% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 123% 1,686%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2% 45% 91% 145% 44% 87% 138%
Second highest 93% 0% -5% -4% -1% 46% 122% 227% 45% 117% 215%
Middle 88% 0% -5% -3% -1% 31% 140% 302% 31% 134% 288%
Second lowest 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 11% 172% 532% 11% 166% 507%
Lowest 50% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 79% 947%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 125% 366% 0% 120% 350%
Sex
Female 85% 0% -6% -4% -1% 1% 149% 531% 1% 143% 505%
Male 79% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 107% 252% 0% 103% 242%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 78% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 129% 400% 0% 124% 383%
White, non-Hispanic 87% 0% -5% -4% -1% 21% 126% 363% 21% 120% 346%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 77% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 121% 306% 0% 117% 296%
All other races, non-Hispanic 79% 0% -5% -4% -2% 0% 113% 335% 0% 107% 319%
Country of birth
United States 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 11% 125% 324% 11% 120% 309%
Other countries 73% 0% -5% -4% -1% 0% 123% 516% 0% 118% 491%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -5% -4% -2% 30% 116% 286% 30% 111% 271%
Bachelor 87% 0% -5% -4% -1% 9% 115% 300% 9% 110% 284%
Associate 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 129% 325% 0% 124% 309%
High school 80% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 133% 439% 0% 127% 417%
Less than high school 72% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 129% 578% 0% 125% 539%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -2% 45% 95% 133% 44% 91% 126%
Second highest 91% 0% -5% -4% -1% 43% 124% 181% 42% 119% 172%
Middle 86% 0% -5% -3% -1% 23% 149% 251% 23% 142% 239%
Second lowest 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 0% 208% 500% 0% 200% 475%
Lowest 54% 0% -6% -4% -1% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 120% 1,475%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 97% 0% -5% -4% -2% 46% 95% 133% 45% 91% 126%
Second highest 92% 0% -5% -4% -1% 44% 123% 182% 43% 118% 173%
Middle 87% 0% -5% -3% -1% 30% 149% 254% 30% 143% 242%
Second lowest 82% 0% -5% -3% -1% 2% 202% 466% 2% 194% 443%
Lowest 53% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 121% 1,509%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 97% 0% -5% -4% -2% 50% 98% 152% 49% 94% 145%
Second highest 93% 0% -5% -4% -1% 46% 125% 235% 45% 119% 225%
Middle 88% 0% -5% -3% -1% 36% 146% 316% 35% 140% 300%
Second lowest 83% 0% -5% -3% -1% 8% 183% 543% 8% 176% 515%
Lowest 50% 0% -6% -3% -1% 0% 73% 797% 0% 72% 748%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 79%
Sex
Female 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 51% 90%
Male 23% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 41% 65%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 85%
White, non-Hispanic 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 75%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 48% 89%
Country of birth
United States 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 29% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 47% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 41% 71%
Bachelor 38% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 75%
Associate 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 75%
High school 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 82%
Less than high school 13% 0% -1% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 55%
Middle 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 43% 63%
Second lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 78%
Lowest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 70% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 46% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 33% 49%
Second highest 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 56%
Middle 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 65%
Second lowest 17% 0% -1% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 80%
Lowest 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 111%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0% 17% 36% 54% 16% 36% 53%
Second highest 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 63%
Middle 23% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 69%
Second lowest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 85%
Lowest 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 47% 82% 23% 46% 81%
Sex
Female 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 52% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 43% 71% 22% 42% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 51% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 45% 78% 23% 44% 78%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 25% 51% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 80%
Country of birth
United States 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 46% 78% 23% 45% 78%
Other countries 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 53% 90% 26% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 48% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 41% 74% 20% 41% 74%
Bachelor 39% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 78%
Associate 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 46% 74% 24% 46% 74%
High school 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 50% 87% 27% 50% 86%
Less than high school 14% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 43% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 30% 45%
Second highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 55%
Middle 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 30% 45% 65% 29% 45% 64%
Second lowest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 54% 81%
Lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 56% 73% 122%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 49% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 33% 49% 15% 33% 48%
Second highest 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 30% 45% 67% 30% 45% 66%
Second lowest 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 38% 54% 82% 38% 54% 81%
Lowest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 55% 71% 114%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 34% 51%
Second highest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 39% 62% 22% 39% 61%
Middle 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 45% 72% 28% 45% 71%
Second lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 35% 52% 85% 35% 52% 84%
Lowest 14% 0% -1% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 49% 65% 100%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 47% 83% 24% 47% 83%
Sex
Female 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 88%
White, non-Hispanic 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 45% 80% 23% 45% 79%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 29% 53% 84% 29% 52% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 42% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 45% 85% 23% 45% 85%
Country of birth
United States 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 79%
Other countries 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 48% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 76%
Bachelor 41% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 42% 81% 21% 42% 80%
Associate 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 25% 46% 77% 25% 46% 76%
High school 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 51% 87% 28% 50% 87%
Less than high school 16% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 43% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 15% 31% 45%
Second highest 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 39% 56%
Middle 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 64%
Second lowest 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 40% 54% 81% 40% 54% 80%
Lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 57% 74% 125% 57% 74% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 49% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 34% 48% 15% 33% 47%
Second highest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 39% 59% 23% 39% 58%
Middle 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 67% 31% 45% 66%
Second lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 39% 53% 81% 39% 53% 80%
Lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 56% 72% 116%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 49% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 34% 50%
Second highest 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 40% 63% 23% 40% 62%
Middle 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 70%
Second lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 35% 52% 86% 35% 52% 85%
Lowest 15% 0% -1% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 50% 67% 102%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 47% 84% 23% 47% 83%
Sex
Female 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 50% 88% 25% 50% 87%
White, non-Hispanic 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 80%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 23% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 52% 84% 27% 51% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 43% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 43% 83% 22% 43% 82%
Country of birth
United States 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 46% 80% 23% 46% 80%
Other countries 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 52% 90% 26% 51% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 49% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 78%
Bachelor 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 42% 82% 21% 42% 81%
Associate 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 46% 76% 23% 46% 75%
High school 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 88%
Less than high school 17% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 43% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 45%
Second highest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 39% 56% 23% 39% 55%
Middle 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 64%
Second lowest 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 39% 55% 81%
Lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 57% 75% 133% 57% 75% 130%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 33% 47% 15% 33% 47%
Second highest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 38% 58% 22% 38% 57%
Middle 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 38% 54% 84% 38% 54% 82%
Lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 56% 74% 124% 56% 73% 122%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 47% 0% -1% 0% 0% 16% 35% 50% 15% 34% 49%
Second highest 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 40% 62% 22% 40% 61%
Middle 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 45% 72% 27% 45% 71%
Second lowest 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 35% 53% 85% 35% 52% 84%
Lowest 16% 0% -1% 0% 0% 51% 67% 108% 51% 67% 107%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: COLA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision A3.