Historical Redistribution Under the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Program

by Dean R. Leimer
ORES Working Paper No. 101 (released April 2003)
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Aggregate annual OASI real net transfers over the period 1937–1997 for selected birth cohorts, by age (in billions of 1997 dollars)
Age Cohort
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00088 0.01447
1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00424 0.04234
2 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00740 0.07088
3 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.01214 0.10075
4 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.01714 0.13407
5 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02491 0.17882
6 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02760 0.23897
7 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.03338 0.27811
8 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.04026 0.36840
9 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.04655 0.42132
10 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.05703 0.53995
11 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.11360 0.67900
12 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.13699 0.81005
13 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.18043 0.98836
14 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.22736 1.09047
15 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.29592 1.22877
16 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.29051 1.24942
17 0.00000 0.00000 -0.02178 0.22107 0.92583
18 0.00000 0.00000 -0.03668 -0.27716 -0.64721
19 0.00000 0.00000 -0.07495 -0.61956 -1.88173
20 0.00000 0.00000 -0.12473 -0.94663 -2.54967
21 0.00000 0.00000 -0.19915 -1.05154 -3.08783
22 0.00000 0.00000 -0.23932 -1.27357 -3.95325
23 0.00000 0.00000 -0.23346 -1.65829 -4.80203
24 0.00000 0.00000 -0.20598 -1.81112 -6.25627
25 0.00000 0.00000 -0.18705 -1.93585 -6.93444
26 0.00000 0.00000 -0.26041 -2.42343 -7.67379
27 0.00000 0.00000 -0.29888 -2.54237 -8.11691
28 0.00000 0.00000 -0.31327 -2.57373 -9.05615
29 0.00000 0.00000 -0.31629 -2.89144 -9.43746
30 0.00000 0.00000 -0.47991 -2.72888 -9.63347
31 0.00000 0.00000 -0.58701 -2.97892 -9.72908
32 0.00000 0.00000 -0.61911 -3.25829 -10.00340
33 0.00000 0.00000 -0.64571 -3.67548 -10.19220
34 0.00000 0.00000 -0.85038 -3.78915 -9.87386
35 0.00000 0.00000 -0.98167 -3.68821 -10.16407
36 0.00000 0.00000 -1.00928 -3.86465 -10.37395
37 0.00000 -0.17941 -1.03659 -3.97389 -11.12423
38 0.00000 -0.16431 -1.00185 -3.92792 0.00000
39 0.00000 -0.17427 -1.24024 -4.09645 0.00000
40 0.00000 -0.18497 -1.51920 -4.20200 0.00000
41 0.00000 -0.20004 -1.50837 -4.39334 0.00000
42 0.00000 -0.22286 -1.60192 -4.32295 0.00000
43 0.00000 -0.27027 -1.88784 -4.60394 0.00000
44 0.00000 -0.27310 -1.90512 -5.35768 0.00000
45 0.00000 -0.25420 -1.91699 -5.39984 0.00000
46 0.00000 -0.20819 -2.41285 -5.64523 0.00000
47 0.00000 -0.19710 -2.43802 -5.66445 0.00000
48 0.00000 -0.19646 -2.42506 -5.97417 0.00000
49 0.00000 -0.18100 -2.65336 -5.97825 0.00000
50 0.00000 -0.27135 -2.45508 -5.85494 0.00000
51 0.00000 -0.36531 -2.62316 -5.69355 0.00000
52 0.00000 -0.37035 -2.77806 -5.63258 0.00000
53 0.00000 -0.37013 -3.03331 -5.50010 0.00000
54 0.00000 -0.48388 -3.02962 -5.12063 0.00000
55 0.00000 -0.54955 -2.86339 -4.95936 0.00000
56 0.00000 -0.56717 -2.85622 -4.74881 0.00000
57 -0.06903 -0.54407 -2.78129 -4.74851 0.00000
58 -0.05889 -0.52259 -2.60155 0.00000 0.00000
59 -0.06071 -0.62819 -2.56742 0.00000 0.00000
60 -0.06378 -0.74290 -2.03225 0.00000 0.00000
61 -0.06874 -0.71258 -1.71245 0.00000 0.00000
62 -0.07593 0.70598 3.23838 0.00000 0.00000
63 -0.08973 1.32328 5.55834 0.00000 0.00000
64 -0.09019 1.77037 6.24216 0.00000 0.00000
65 0.03081 3.51058 10.48812 0.00000 0.00000
66 0.11830 4.34242 11.83610 0.00000 0.00000
67 0.15239 4.53903 11.87485 0.00000 0.00000
68 0.19204 5.09647 11.96932 0.00000 0.00000
69 0.25592 5.02798 12.07141 0.00000 0.00000
70 0.35126 5.57926 12.41549 0.00000 0.00000
71 0.62504 6.02597 12.66533 0.00000 0.00000
72 0.66877 6.44405 12.58508 0.00000 0.00000
73 0.83678 6.79884 12.40407 0.00000 0.00000
74 0.90857 6.35668 11.99205 0.00000 0.00000
75 1.20656 6.22188 11.70278 0.00000 0.00000
76 1.13530 6.15005 11.23034 0.00000 0.00000
77 1.18597 5.86578 11.04081 0.00000 0.00000
78 1.13119 5.43117 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
79 1.10291 4.92572 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
80 0.97279 4.60704 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
81 0.90390 4.27185 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
82 0.85702 4.42141 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
83 0.75515 4.12087 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
84 0.68016 3.69542 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
85 0.61149 3.23043 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
86 0.53353 2.97640 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
87 0.51283 2.59293 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
88 0.46372 2.28608 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
89 0.38158 1.97995 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
90 0.32509 1.62148 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
91 0.27535 1.42222 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
92 0.22677 1.21917 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
93 0.19914 1.00524 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
94 0.14894 0.77010 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
95 0.10511 0.57174 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
96 0.07980 0.41100 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
97 0.05903 0.31220 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
98 0.04285 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
99 0.03146 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
100 0.02328 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
101 0.01789 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
102 0.01419 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
103 0.01228 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
104 0.00938 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
105 0.00743 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
106 0.00560 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
107 0.00454 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
108 0.00364 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
109 0.00311 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
110 0.00229 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
111 0.00224 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
112 0.00140 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
113 0.00096 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
114 0.00071 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
115 0.00043 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
116 0.00031 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
117 0.00016 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
118 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
119 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Aggregate annual OASI real net transfers in selected years, by age (in billions of 1997 dollars)
Age Year
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
0 0.00470 0.01384 0.01482 0.01572 0.01477 0.01246
1 0.01419 0.03454 0.04384 0.05188 0.04205 0.04005
2 0.02110 0.05433 0.07301 0.08817 0.06984 0.07465
3 0.02366 0.07472 0.10525 0.13541 0.10683 0.11793
4 0.02337 0.09314 0.14120 0.19618 0.14590 0.15484
5 0.02491 0.10723 0.17882 0.26101 0.19384 0.21039
6 0.02556 0.12782 0.22176 0.31317 0.24381 0.25512
7 0.02683 0.15246 0.26556 0.36827 0.29428 0.30679
8 0.02718 0.18832 0.32470 0.43363 0.35958 0.35786
9 0.02768 0.19985 0.37619 0.51781 0.41165 0.42425
10 0.02915 0.21553 0.43092 0.61491 0.48685 0.50382
11 0.03026 0.25894 0.49409 0.74517 0.57306 0.56554
12 0.03074 0.29454 0.55748 0.86097 0.66681 0.64150
13 0.03283 0.30053 0.63518 0.98465 0.81663 0.74296
14 0.03040 0.29108 0.69816 1.12868 1.02190 0.84287
15 0.01997 0.29592 0.74807 1.22877 1.19884 0.92356
16 -0.01970 0.26447 0.75711 1.21564 1.19521 0.84734
17 -0.09769 0.17696 0.61393 0.96247 1.00801 0.63067
18 -0.14577 -0.28867 -0.57503 -0.46989 -0.72292 -0.67777
19 -0.16410 -0.44462 -1.21385 -1.60614 -1.99500 -1.60091
20 -0.17118 -0.54786 -1.36991 -2.36477 -2.80993 -2.15449
21 -0.17995 -0.56980 -1.62225 -2.76287 -3.58132 -2.59683
22 -0.18179 -0.55871 -2.05802 -3.78046 -4.31240 -3.08541
23 -0.18422 -0.65403 -2.19000 -4.27400 -5.39089 -3.96634
24 -0.18406 -0.71359 -1.96085 -4.47498 -6.19037 -5.09346
25 -0.18705 -0.79469 -1.93585 -4.51023 -6.93444 -5.97847
26 -0.19333 -0.83437 -1.91721 -4.64966 -7.20452 -6.35780
27 -0.22116 -0.90845 -1.90332 -4.87497 -7.52244 -6.57507
28 -0.21191 -0.95107 -1.82375 -5.26238 -7.91058 -7.10753
29 -0.22636 -0.96126 -1.82641 -4.73622 -8.11154 -7.62274
30 -0.25617 -0.96969 -1.85464 -4.01413 -8.14593 -8.17362
31 -0.29073 -1.01863 -1.78899 -4.07582 -8.25002 -8.86251
32 -0.28165 -0.98052 -1.75613 -4.42159 -8.05251 -9.13826
33 -0.30194 -0.98204 -1.79384 -4.33731 -8.17885 -9.65520
34 -0.27810 -1.04029 -1.82739 -3.78152 -8.01178 -9.88137
35 -0.31473 -0.98167 -1.89104 -3.68821 -7.71309 -10.16407
36 -0.30544 -0.92656 -1.87861 -3.57329 -7.77670 -10.07424
37 -0.28719 -0.95462 -1.93858 -3.59879 -7.96204 -10.13364
38 -0.28592 -0.91154 -1.95199 -3.39032 -8.49143 -10.24484
39 -0.30038 -0.91973 -1.94449 -3.39247 -7.58045 -10.31817
40 -0.29403 -0.91008 -1.96181 -3.43637 -6.32283 -10.21526
41 -0.28620 -0.94488 -2.01045 -3.27529 -6.36391 -10.18341
42 -0.27280 -0.88500 -1.97379 -3.23313 -6.76137 -9.80057
43 -0.29426 -0.88934 -1.93933 -3.26675 -6.59018 -9.76578
44 -0.26986 -0.82421 -2.01723 -3.28306 -5.63065 -9.43706
45 -0.25420 -0.81698 -1.91699 -3.37605 -5.39984 -9.05419
46 -0.23695 -0.81511 -1.79644 -3.30524 -5.13375 -8.98019
47 -0.24023 -0.79802 -1.79725 -3.34207 -5.12839 -9.04221
48 -0.21028 -0.75975 -1.71684 -3.34855 -4.73565 -9.47771
49 -0.23696 -0.72822 -1.70027 -3.25596 -4.67523 -8.21333
50 -0.21705 -0.71503 -1.67181 -3.26460 -4.64142 -6.70767
51 -0.20481 -0.67043 -1.68439 -3.27375 -4.33524 -6.56672
52 -0.21410 -0.63507 -1.57624 -3.14391 -4.21530 -6.76462
53 -0.20259 -0.62076 -1.56927 -3.03944 -4.15752 -6.45024
54 -0.18659 -0.55329 -1.45184 -3.13680 -4.07094 -5.34304
55 -0.17771 -0.54955 -1.42545 -2.86339 -4.08550 -4.95936
56 -0.17459 -0.50773 -1.40432 -2.64689 -3.86771 -4.47259
57 -0.17354 -0.50708 -1.36992 -2.57465 -3.77128 -4.26289
58 -0.14952 -0.46383 -1.28190 -2.36326 -3.64681 -3.74124
59 -0.14799 -0.47295 -1.21297 -2.26910 -3.37897 -3.49138
60 -0.14441 -0.44460 -1.00835 -1.78371 -2.64716 -2.82833
61 -0.12801 -0.41174 -0.88809 -1.52200 -2.19399 -2.13679
62 -0.10569 -0.40022 0.62748 2.01604 3.30011 3.46913
63 -0.10539 -0.38054 1.39919 3.49385 5.29013 6.10203
64 -0.08747 -0.32939 1.77393 4.21423 6.57228 7.11333
65 0.03081 1.36550 3.51058 7.93195 10.48812 11.44202
66 0.07986 1.93379 3.85681 8.79571 10.89662 12.17964
67 0.10149 2.09714 4.37422 8.98126 12.14828 13.11342
68 0.11802 1.92968 4.43629 8.85796 12.30338 13.58846
69 0.11993 1.90300 4.66123 8.43388 12.71568 13.31543
70 0.12217 1.80386 4.57953 8.24589 12.73702 13.79529
71 0.11610 1.72050 4.45261 7.76159 12.41857 13.66144
72 0.09700 1.75090 4.51821 7.59803 11.52401 13.02872
73 0.08116 1.62641 4.32510 7.16179 10.89446 12.59223
74 0.05826 1.34319 3.79175 6.29419 9.94524 12.63400
75 0.04908 1.20656 3.42912 6.22188 9.31680 11.70278
76 0.04240 1.00578 3.10288 5.38049 8.70928 10.57446
77 0.03685 0.85137 2.83108 5.27959 8.21290 10.81048
78 0.02976 0.71557 2.29956 4.78010 7.56164 10.22967
79 0.02358 0.60077 2.04165 4.52841 6.76987 10.02718
80 0.01528 0.47199 1.73069 4.08851 6.18965 9.31272
81 0.01180 0.36990 1.46161 3.67626 5.51319 8.59703
82 0.00856 0.28628 1.22068 3.27452 4.94637 7.66438
83 0.00586 0.22030 0.99768 2.87745 4.40235 6.82257
84 0.00331 0.16405 0.79717 2.37089 3.63190 5.91565
85 0.00324 0.11634 0.61149 1.97986 3.23043 5.16973
86 0.00203 0.08219 0.46819 1.62790 2.76209 4.49876
87 0.00108 0.05810 0.35637 1.33414 2.43000 3.95847
88 0.00121 0.04022 0.26511 1.05199 2.05271 3.35917
89 0.00050 0.02674 0.19350 0.81963 1.72389 2.72542
90 0.00063 0.01683 0.13417 0.61425 1.41772 2.22826
91 0.00045 0.01046 0.09242 0.45950 1.12574 1.80454
92 0.00033 0.00675 0.06371 0.33394 0.87854 1.43691
93 0.00024 0.00404 0.04268 0.23914 0.66208 1.11312
94 0.00017 0.00253 0.02765 0.16346 0.47537 0.82563
95 0.00013 0.00154 0.01595 0.10511 0.31426 0.57174
96 0.00009 0.00095 0.00896 0.06937 0.21377 0.40334
97 0.00007 0.00059 0.00535 0.04578 0.14185 0.28213
98 0.00005 0.00036 0.00309 0.03008 0.09956 0.19972
99 0.00004 0.00023 0.00184 0.01938 0.06685 0.14008
100 0.00003 0.00015 0.00107 0.01202 0.04727 0.09798
101 0.00002 -0.00004 0.00065 0.00583 0.03156 0.06944
102 0.00002 -0.00003 0.00040 0.00444 0.02040 0.05054
103 0.00001 0.00005 0.00024 0.00293 0.01546 0.03248
104 0.00001 0.00003 0.00015 0.00197 0.01071 0.02094
105 0.00001 0.00002 0.00007 0.00133 0.00743 0.01733
106 0.00001 0.00002 0.00007 0.00090 0.00400 0.00805
107 0.00000 0.00001 0.00004 0.00063 0.00324 -0.00006
108 0.00000 0.00001 0.00003 0.00044 0.00169 0.00319
109 0.00000 0.00001 0.00002 0.00032 0.00126 0.00036
110 0.00000 0.00001 0.00002 0.00023 0.00119 0.00173
111 0.00000 0.00000 0.00001 0.00016 -0.00015 0.00050
112 0.00000 0.00000 -0.00012 0.00012 0.00069 -0.00154
113 0.00000 0.00000 0.00001 0.00008 0.00026 0.00085
114 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00006 0.00034 0.00066
115 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00004 0.00023 0.00043
116 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00002 0.00009 -0.00120
117 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00007 0.00014
118 0.00000 0.00000 -0.00001 -0.00001 0.00000 -0.00111
119 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 -0.00006 -0.00107
120 0.00000 0.00000 -0.00005 -0.00097 -0.00228 -0.00698
SOURCE: Author's calculations.