Historical Redistribution Under the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Programs

by Dean R. Leimer
ORES Working Paper No. 102 (released February 2004)
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Aggregate annual OASDI real net transfers over the period of analysis (1937–1999) for selected birth cohorts, by age
Age Cohort
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
0 0 0 0 0.00092 0.01593
1 0 0 0 0.00443 0.05143
2 0 0 0 0.00772 0.08808
3 0 0 0 0.01266 0.12489
4 0 0 0 0.01789 0.16515
5 0 0 0 0.02599 0.22223
6 0 0 0 0.02879 0.29626
7 0 0 0 0.03482 0.34594
8 0 0 0 0.04200 0.45472
9 0 0 0 0.04857 0.51964
10 0 0 0 0.05950 0.66209
11 0 0 0 0.11852 0.83500
12 0 0 0 0.14292 1.00312
13 0 0 0 0.18825 1.23296
14 0 0 0 0.23720 1.37936
15 0 0 0 0.30874 1.57787
16 0 0 0 0.30306 1.64913
17 0 0 -0.02272 0.20855 1.30147
18 0 0 -0.03827 -0.32841 -0.76228
19 0 0 -0.07819 -0.71875 -2.29595
20 0 0 -0.13013 -1.07804 -2.95790
21 0 0 -0.20778 -1.19695 -3.65037
22 0 0 -0.24969 -1.44371 -4.83727
23 0 0 -0.24358 -1.85619 -5.61852
24 0 0 -0.21491 -2.02588 -7.08944
25 0 0 -0.19516 -2.16201 -7.84547
26 0 0 -0.27170 -2.77024 -8.66229
27 0 0 -0.31184 -2.89817 -9.14652
28 0 0 -0.32684 -3.04638 -10.19184
29 0 0 -0.32999 -3.37159 -10.60554
30 0 0 -0.50071 -3.23508 -10.90959
31 0 0 -0.61242 -3.46948 -10.96856
32 0 0 -0.64590 -3.77999 -11.21163
33 0 0 -0.67365 -4.21664 -11.36209
34 0 0 -0.88722 -4.34292 -11.68152
35 0 0 -1.02416 -4.18778 -11.97225
36 0 0 -1.05295 -4.35547 -12.17077
37 0 -0.18718 -1.22249 -4.44736 -12.80522
38 0 -0.17143 -1.18262 -4.58387 -13.38067
39 0 -0.18182 -1.44390 -4.74636 -13.74442
40 0 -0.19299 -1.71887 -4.63494 0
41 0 -0.20871 -1.67040 -4.90928 0
42 0 -0.23252 -1.74590 -5.03212 0
43 0 -0.28198 -2.02972 -5.10015 0
44 0 -0.28494 -2.03629 -5.76493 0
45 0 -0.26522 -2.02008 -5.76230 0
46 0 -0.21721 -2.62170 -5.98799 0
47 0 -0.20564 -2.62641 -5.97045 0
48 0 -0.20497 -2.69575 -6.28569 0
49 0 -0.18885 -2.89857 -6.24123 0
50 0 -0.28310 -2.67289 -6.10392 0
51 0 -0.38114 -2.74692 -5.79797 0
52 0 -0.38639 -2.83681 -5.58812 0
53 0 -0.38616 -2.97610 -5.29467 0
54 0 -0.50481 -2.88202 -5.08906 0
55 0 -0.57332 -2.52224 -4.72194 0
56 0 -0.59172 -2.31649 -4.29554 0
57 -0.07203 -0.61771 -2.04338 -4.05266 0
58 -0.06145 -0.50991 -1.87610 -3.76847 0
59 -0.06334 -0.54564 -1.73818 -3.33178 0
60 -0.06654 -0.62458 -0.89352 0 0
61 -0.07172 -0.49333 -0.37401 0 0
62 -0.07922 1.07602 4.97590 0 0
63 -0.09362 1.72888 7.59175 0 0
64 -0.09410 2.18077 8.31721 0 0
65 0.03214 3.62930 10.84562 0 0
66 0.12342 4.49273 12.28066 0 0
67 0.15899 4.70495 12.33483 0 0
68 0.20036 5.28043 12.43730 0 0
69 0.26701 5.21526 12.55040 0 0
70 0.36648 5.79372 12.90971 0 0
71 0.65212 6.26710 13.17763 0 0
72 0.69775 6.70540 13.09863 0 0
73 0.87304 7.07766 12.91396 0 0
74 0.94794 6.61871 12.62230 0 0
75 1.25885 6.48068 12.34508 0 0
76 1.18450 6.40739 11.87556 0 0
77 1.23408 6.11274 11.64024 0 0
78 1.17767 5.65774 11.27133 0 0
79 1.14887 5.13199 10.60466 0 0
80 1.01353 4.80232 0 0 0
81 0.94193 4.45283 0 0 0
82 0.89326 4.60835 0 0 0
83 0.78717 4.29650 0 0 0
84 0.70909 3.85307 0 0 0
85 0.63752 3.36818 0 0 0
86 0.55616 3.10334 0 0 0
87 0.53465 2.70353 0 0 0
88 0.48329 2.38348 0 0 0
89 0.39766 2.06418 0 0 0
90 0.33884 1.68998 0 0 0
91 0.28703 1.48216 0 0 0
92 0.23637 1.27058 0 0 0
93 0.20768 1.04747 0 0 0
94 0.15535 0.81087 0 0 0
95 0.10968 0.60285 0 0 0
96 0.08328 0.43406 0 0 0
97 0.06159 0.32847 0 0 0
98 0.04467 0.23711 0 0 0
99 0.03284 0.16187 0 0 0
100 0.02432 0 0 0 0
101 0.01868 0 0 0 0
102 0.01479 0 0 0 0
103 0.01281 0 0 0 0
104 0.00977 0 0 0 0
105 0.00774 0 0 0 0
106 0.00580 0 0 0 0
107 0.00466 0 0 0 0
108 0.00372 0 0 0 0
109 0.00309 0 0 0 0
110 0.00222 0 0 0 0
111 0.00205 0 0 0 0
112 0.00112 0 0 0 0
113 0.00054 0 0 0 0
114 0.00017 0 0 0 0
115 -0.00026 0 0 0 0
116 -0.00016 0 0 0 0
117 -0.00020 0 0 0 0
118 -0.00029 0 0 0 0
119 -0.00029 0 0 0 0
SOURCE: Author's calculations.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Aggregate annual OASDI real net transfers in selected years, by age
Age 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
0 0.00490 0.01444 0.01968 0.02723 0.02803 0.03327
1 0.01481 0.03603 0.05710 0.08373 0.07083 0.08854
2 0.02201 0.05668 0.09329 0.13195 0.10818 0.13724
3 0.02469 0.07796 0.13240 0.19276 0.15530 0.19857
4 0.02438 0.09717 0.17632 0.27075 0.20552 0.25435
5 0.02599 0.11188 0.22223 0.35191 0.26669 0.33267
6 0.02667 0.13336 0.27297 0.41546 0.32982 0.39701
7 0.02799 0.15907 0.32602 0.48407 0.39389 0.46640
8 0.02836 0.19648 0.39572 0.56575 0.47613 0.53662
9 0.02888 0.20851 0.45722 0.67178 0.54120 0.62921
10 0.03042 0.22487 0.52110 0.79755 0.63645 0.73519
11 0.03157 0.27016 0.59611 0.96251 0.74424 0.83389
12 0.03207 0.30731 0.66916 1.10903 0.86457 0.93030
13 0.03425 0.31356 0.75940 1.26494 1.05214 1.07653
14 0.03171 0.30369 0.83403 1.44961 1.31369 1.21689
15 0.02084 0.30874 0.89062 1.57787 1.53696 1.34318
16 -0.02055 0.27607 0.90648 1.57348 1.58291 1.32060
17 -0.10193 0.18466 0.74574 1.29545 1.38148 1.06932
18 -0.15209 -0.30825 -0.64218 -0.50332 -0.77476 -0.76412
19 -0.17121 -0.46886 -1.36015 -1.86930 -2.27303 -1.95718
20 -0.17860 -0.56676 -1.53633 -2.77061 -3.20079 -2.63331
21 -0.18775 -0.59404 -1.81848 -3.23478 -4.07428 -3.16607
22 -0.18967 -0.58337 -2.30467 -4.41709 -4.89946 -3.75421
23 -0.19220 -0.67892 -2.45168 -4.98215 -6.11962 -4.81440
24 -0.19204 -0.74331 -2.19461 -5.20779 -7.01414 -6.17993
25 -0.19516 -0.82821 -2.16201 -5.22942 -7.84547 -7.24115
26 -0.20170 -0.87125 -2.13710 -5.37252 -8.13034 -7.68694
27 -0.23074 -0.94773 -2.12041 -5.62187 -8.47969 -7.91494
28 -0.22109 -0.99153 -2.06683 -6.06487 -8.89220 -8.55557
29 -0.23617 -1.00218 -2.04335 -5.44755 -9.09594 -9.15175
30 -0.26727 -1.01180 -2.02908 -4.60417 -9.11586 -9.77845
31 -0.30333 -1.06266 -1.97107 -4.66106 -9.20397 -10.57113
32 -0.29386 -1.02300 -1.93008 -5.05611 -8.96364 -10.88315
33 -0.31502 -1.02442 -1.95483 -4.95521 -9.07847 -11.46477
34 -0.29015 -1.08541 -1.99728 -4.29946 -8.87892 -11.68909
35 -0.32837 -1.02416 -2.06606 -4.18778 -8.50767 -11.97225
36 -0.31868 -0.96676 -2.05215 -4.04209 -8.54640 -11.79674
37 -0.29963 -0.99594 -2.10862 -4.06729 -8.73570 -11.83766
38 -0.29831 -0.95103 -2.11175 -3.89180 -9.31399 -11.90489
39 -0.31339 -0.95957 -2.09667 -3.83602 -8.28884 -11.92941
40 -0.30677 -0.94952 -2.10959 -3.79343 -6.87480 -11.76948
41 -0.29860 -0.98582 -2.15524 -3.61604 -6.89611 -11.67909
42 -0.28462 -0.92334 -2.10865 -3.56001 -7.31627 -11.19556
43 -0.30701 -0.92788 -2.06177 -3.54507 -7.11768 -11.09464
44 -0.28156 -0.85992 -2.13959 -3.56690 -6.03093 -10.64839
45 -0.26522 -0.85234 -2.02008 -3.65208 -5.76230 -10.15759
46 -0.24722 -0.85043 -1.88001 -3.56646 -5.43447 -9.98114
47 -0.25064 -0.83260 -1.86917 -3.55469 -5.42240 -10.00986
48 -0.21939 -0.79267 -1.77702 -3.50484 -5.05973 -10.45088
49 -0.24723 -0.75968 -1.74440 -3.35427 -4.88787 -8.95906
50 -0.22645 -0.74595 -1.69823 -3.30843 -4.71110 -7.16786
51 -0.21368 -0.69948 -1.69232 -3.24759 -4.35352 -6.88684
52 -0.22337 -0.66258 -1.55561 -3.05023 -4.18380 -7.00564
53 -0.21137 -0.64769 -1.52752 -2.86499 -4.00581 -6.61066
54 -0.19468 -0.57727 -1.37959 -2.89967 -3.88176 -5.25975
55 -0.18541 -0.57332 -1.31435 -2.52224 -3.80087 -4.72194
56 -0.18215 -0.52973 -1.26859 -2.21907 -3.51107 -4.03147
57 -0.18106 -0.52895 -1.19941 -2.02406 -3.23847 -3.68825
58 -0.15600 -0.48393 -1.06599 -1.73867 -2.93842 -3.09349
59 -0.15440 -0.49344 -0.96983 -1.53008 -2.52737 -2.63278
60 -0.15066 -0.46386 -0.70272 -0.87793 -1.58994 -1.69372
61 -0.13355 -0.42953 -0.54623 -0.42318 -0.92230 -0.82821
62 -0.11027 -0.41756 1.07725 3.37315 5.01127 5.22373
63 -0.10995 -0.39703 1.87750 4.96390 7.19537 8.19704
64 -0.09126 -0.34366 2.19561 5.66189 8.63836 9.28877
65 0.03214 1.42468 3.62930 8.17604 10.84562 11.89035
66 0.08332 2.01759 4.00260 9.12123 11.30514 12.72611
67 0.10589 2.18802 4.54672 9.32454 12.62376 13.74450
68 0.12313 2.01330 4.61510 9.20669 12.80080 14.26693
69 0.12513 1.98546 4.85164 8.77018 13.23704 14.00410
70 0.12746 1.88203 4.76905 8.58007 13.26293 14.51313
71 0.12113 1.79505 4.63846 8.07733 12.93439 14.38425
72 0.10120 1.82677 4.70756 7.90979 12.00479 13.72761
73 0.08468 1.69689 4.50663 7.45657 11.35070 13.27094
74 0.06079 1.40139 3.95111 6.55330 10.36360 13.32038
75 0.05120 1.25885 3.57317 6.48068 9.70884 12.34508
76 0.04424 1.04936 3.23362 5.60420 9.07761 11.15708
77 0.03845 0.88826 2.95077 5.50110 8.56111 11.41452
78 0.03105 0.74658 2.39703 4.98130 7.88367 10.80205
79 0.02460 0.62680 2.12819 4.71851 7.05743 10.59160
80 0.01594 0.49244 1.80383 4.26151 6.45385 9.83849
81 0.01231 0.38593 1.52368 3.83303 5.74794 9.08265
82 0.00893 0.29868 1.27280 3.41431 5.15746 8.09930
83 0.00611 0.22985 1.04014 2.99974 4.59034 7.20949
84 0.00345 0.17116 0.83115 2.47169 3.78627 6.25180
85 0.00338 0.12138 0.63752 2.06451 3.36818 5.46390
86 0.00211 0.08575 0.48817 1.69763 2.88046 4.75513
87 0.00113 0.06062 0.37168 1.39110 2.53437 4.18421
88 0.00127 0.04196 0.27640 1.09715 2.14097 3.55075
89 0.00052 0.02790 0.20178 0.85477 1.79785 2.87993
90 0.00066 0.01756 0.13994 0.64042 1.47857 2.35445
91 0.00047 0.01091 0.09637 0.47932 1.17427 1.90690
92 0.00034 0.00704 0.06646 0.34824 0.91632 1.51839
93 0.00025 0.00422 0.04451 0.24942 0.69036 1.17563
94 0.00018 0.00264 0.02885 0.17049 0.49565 0.87087
95 0.00013 0.00161 0.01665 0.10968 0.32798 0.60285
96 0.00010 0.00100 0.00933 0.07238 0.22291 0.42587
97 0.00007 0.00061 0.00560 0.04775 0.14753 0.29723
98 0.00005 0.00038 0.00323 0.03137 0.10383 0.21054
99 0.00004 0.00024 0.00192 0.02020 0.06985 0.14721
100 0.00003 0.00016 0.00112 0.01254 0.04936 0.10302
101 0.00002 -0.00004 0.00069 0.00599 0.03313 0.07327
102 0.00002 -0.00003 0.00042 0.00465 0.02111 0.05335
103 0.00001 0.00005 0.00025 0.00307 0.01614 0.03372
104 0.00001 0.00003 0.00016 0.00206 0.01117 0.02139
105 0.00001 0.00002 0.00007 0.00138 0.00774 0.01853
106 0 0.00002 0.00007 0.00092 0.00403 0.00681
107 0 0.00001 0.00004 0.00063 0.00329 -0.00169
108 0 0.00001 0.00003 0.00042 0.00161 0.00273
109 0 0 0.00001 0.00027 0.00117 -0.00024
110 0 0 0 0.00015 0.00111 0.00139
111 0 0 0 0.00006 -0.00044 0.00044
112 0 0 -0.00014 0 0.00049 -0.00250
113 0 0 0 0 -0.00006 0.00037
114 0 0 0 0 0 0.00013
115 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00026
116 0 0 0 0 -0.00006 -0.00200
117 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00015
118 0 0 -0.00001 -0.00001 0 -0.00151
119 0 0 0 0 -0.00007 -0.00132
120 0 0 -0.00005 -0.00115 -0.00258 -0.00836
SOURCE: Author's calculations.