Using Predisability Earnings as an Instrument for Disability Determination Outcomes

by Jae G. Song
ORES Working Paper No. 104 (released April 2004)
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Number of Disability Insurance applications and awards, 1977–1997, (thousands)
Year All applicants Denied a Allowed
1977 1,235.2 666.3 568.9
1978 1,184.7 720.3 464.4
1979 1,187.8 771.1 416.7
1980 1,262.3 865.7 396.6
1981 1,161.2 809.4 351.8
1982 1,019.8 722.6 297.2
1983 1,019.3 707.8 311.5
1984 1,036.7 674.7 362.0
1985 1,066.2 688.8 377.4
1986 1,118.4 701.5 416.9
1987 1,108.9 693.1 415.8
1988 1,017.9 608.4 409.5
1989 984.9 559.3 425.6
1990 1,067.7 599.7 468.0
1991 1,208.7 672.3 536.4
1992 1,335.1 698.5 636.6
1993 1,425.8 790.6 635.2
1994 1,443.8 811.9 631.9
1995 1,338.1 692.3 645.8
1996 1,279.2 654.9 624.3
1997 1,180.2 592.8 587.4
SOURCE: The Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2000 (Social Security Administration; Office of Policy; Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics).
a. Technical denials are included.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Distribution of allowed and denied Disability Insurance applicants at the lower end of the earnings distribution, by earnings level at years before and after application (percent)
Earnings range -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Allowed
Workers with earnings below—
$0 6.54 6.52 6.15 7.28 8.44 10.54 15.13 32.49 72.59 80.71 82.16 81.64 82.1 81.99 81.84
$3,000 14.34 14.11 13.41 14.52 16.17 19.32 26.12 55.09 86.63 89.18 89.09 88.64 87.75 87.8 87.64
$6,000 21.78 22.12 21.38 23.14 23.98 27.03 35.3 68.02 91.53 92.09 91.65 91.09 90.58 90.79 90.39
$12,000 38.94 39.6 38.64 40.26 41.92 44.95 53.93 82.93 95.76 95.69 95.03 94.69 94.09 94.02 93.96
$18,000 55.27 56.11 56.58 56.73 58.08 60.69 68.25 90.23 97.64 97.2 97.19 96.85 96.64 96.48 96.04
Denied
Workers with earnings below—
$0 14.11 16.09 17.18 18.16 20.97 24.67 30.98 42.9 47.73 48.82 46.55 47.51 47.96 49.19 50.24
$3,000 26.52 26.85 28.53 30.83 33.93 36.43 45.79 65.8 64.07 60.38 57.85 57.49 56.93 58.85 59.37
$6,000 36.86 37.44 38.93 40.28 43.13 45.71 56.14 76.81 73.39 68.95 66.34 66.16 64.31 65.83 65.46
$12,000 55.56 55.73 56.97 58.27 59.93 62.58 71.65 88.69 85.31 81.8 79.74 79.11 77.77 76.38 76.02
$18,000 70.08 70.46 70.47 71.31 72.85 74.75 82.05 94.14 92.28 89.65 88.44 88.2 87.36 85.71 86.2
SOURCE: Author's tabulations using the 1984, 1992, 1993, and 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation matched with the Social Security Administration's Summary Earnings Record, Master Beneficiary Record, and "831" disability files.