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Benefit Formula Changes

Reduce the 90%, 32%, and 15% PIA factors to 90%, 21%, and 10% over a 31-year period

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

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Table 1. Individual benefits 2030: PIA Factors to 90 21 10 versus Scheduled
Characteristic Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total -3% 66% 0%
Sex
Female -2% 62% 0%
Male -4% 71% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic -3% 68% 0%
White -3% 66% 0%
Black -2% 66% 0%
Other -3% 66% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant -2% 66% 0%
Native Born -3% 66% 0%
Age
60–69 -7% 87% 0%
70–79 -3% 82% 0%
80–89 0% 4% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married -3% 67% 0%
Married -4% 78% 0%
Divorced -3% 67% 0%
Widowed 0% 36% 0%
Education
Graduate -3% 67% 0%
Bachelor -4% 71% 0%
Associate -3% 69% 0%
High School -2% 63% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs -1% 57% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ -3% 66% 0%
$51,630 - $92,568 -4% 72% 0%
$32,444 - $51,630 -4% 71% 0%
$19,359 - $32,444 -3% 70% 0%
$0-$19,359 -1% 52% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ -4% 71% 0%
$88,261 - $156,005 -4% 75% 0%
$53,741 - $88,261 -3% 71% 0%
$29,648 - $53,741 -3% 66% 0%
$0-$29,648 0% 48% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ -4% 72% 0%
$63,084 - $85,700 -4% 71% 0%
$46,412 - $63,084 -4% 70% 0%
$29,733 - $46,412 -3% 69% 0%
$0-$29,733 0% 48% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker -4% 74% 0%
Spousal & Worker -5% 78% 0%
Spousal Only -2% 63% 0%
Survivor & Worker 0% 37% 0%
Survivor Only 0% 25% 0%
Retired Disabled -1% 51% 0%
Disabled Worker -4% 72% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger -2% 63% 0%
63–66 -3% 72% 0%
67 or older -1% 58% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ -4% 76% 0%
161–200 -4% 77% 0%
81–160 -2% 64% 0%
0–80 0% 35% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ -5% 72% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 -5% 75% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 -4% 74% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 -3% 70% 0%
$0-$1,780 0% 41% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ -4% 66% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 -3% 64% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 -4% 73% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 -4% 76% 0%
$0-$2,836 -1% 52% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ -5% 84% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 -4% 76% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 -3% 65% 0%
$1,193 - $1,683 -2% 58% 0%
$0-$1,193 0% 48% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ -5% 78% 0%
$81,240 - $116,762 -4% 74% 0%
$52,849 - $81,240 -3% 68% 0%
$1 - $52,849 -2% 64% 0%
$0.00 -1% 54% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 2. Distribution of changes 2030: PIA Factors to 90 21 10 versus Scheduled
Characteristic % of Population With % Change of
-20%+ -10 to -19% -1 to -9% No change +1 to +9% +10 to +19% +20%+
Total 1% 8% 57% 34% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 6% 55% 38% 0% 0% 0%
Male 2% 10% 60% 29% 0% 0% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 1% 7% 60% 32% 0% 0% 0%
White 1% 8% 57% 34% 0% 0% 0%
Black 1% 5% 60% 34% 0% 0% 0%
Other 2% 8% 56% 34% 0% 0% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant 1% 7% 58% 34% 0% 0% 0%
Native Born 1% 8% 57% 34% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 4% 21% 63% 13% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 1% 81% 18% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 3% 96% 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married 1% 7% 59% 33% 0% 0% 0%
Married 2% 10% 66% 22% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 7% 58% 33% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 2% 33% 64% 0% 0% 0%
Education
Graduate 2% 11% 54% 33% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 2% 11% 58% 29% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 8% 59% 31% 0% 0% 0%
High School 1% 5% 57% 37% 0% 0% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 3% 54% 43% 0% 0% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 3% 11% 52% 34% 0% 0% 0%
$51,630 - $92,568 3% 12% 57% 28% 0% 0% 0%
$32,444 - $51,630 1% 9% 62% 29% 0% 0% 0%
$19,359 - $32,444 0% 5% 65% 30% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$19,359 0% 1% 51% 48% 0% 0% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 3% 13% 56% 29% 0% 0% 0%
$88,261 - $156,005 2% 11% 62% 25% 0% 0% 0%
$53,741 - $88,261 1% 8% 62% 29% 0% 0% 0%
$29,648 - $53,741 0% 5% 61% 34% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$29,648 0% 1% 47% 52% 0% 0% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 2% 15% 55% 28% 0% 0% 0%
$63,084 - $85,700 2% 12% 57% 29% 0% 0% 0%
$46,412 - $63,084 1% 7% 61% 30% 0% 0% 0%
$29,733 - $46,412 1% 4% 65% 30% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$29,733 0% 1% 48% 52% 0% 0% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 2% 9% 64% 26% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal & Worker 1% 15% 63% 22% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal Only 2% 4% 57% 37% 0% 0% 0%
Survivor & Worker 0% 2% 35% 63% 0% 0% 0%
Survivor Only 1% 2% 21% 75% 0% 0% 0%
Retired Disabled 0% 1% 50% 49% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled Worker 0% 14% 58% 28% 0% 0% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 1% 9% 54% 37% 0% 0% 0%
63–66 2% 7% 62% 28% 0% 0% 0%
67 or older 0% 2% 56% 42% 0% 0% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 3% 9% 63% 24% 0% 0% 0%
161–200 2% 11% 64% 23% 0% 0% 0%
81–160 0% 6% 58% 36% 0% 0% 0%
0–80 0% 2% 32% 65% 0% 0% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 3% 17% 53% 28% 0% 0% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 2% 13% 60% 25% 0% 0% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 1% 3% 69% 26% 0% 0% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 1% 2% 67% 30% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$1,780 0% 3% 37% 59% 0% 0% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 2% 14% 50% 34% 0% 0% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 2% 13% 49% 36% 0% 0% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 1% 9% 62% 27% 0% 0% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 1% 1% 73% 24% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$2,836 0% 0% 52% 48% 0% 0% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 1% 12% 71% 16% 0% 0% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 1% 9% 66% 24% 0% 0% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 1% 10% 54% 35% 0% 0% 0%
$1,193 - $1,683 1% 5% 52% 42% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$1,193 3% 1% 44% 52% 0% 0% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 3% 14% 61% 22% 0% 0% 0%
$81,240 - $116,762 2% 9% 63% 26% 0% 0% 0%
$52,849 - $81,240 2% 7% 59% 32% 0% 0% 0%
$1 - $52,849 1% 6% 57% 36% 0% 0% 0%
$0.00 0% 4% 50% 46% 0% 0% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 3. Poverty 2030: PIA Factors to 90 21 10 versus Scheduled
Characteristic Poverty Rate # of Poor Change
Scheduled Option Diff
Total 3.1% 3.2% 0.1% 60,883
Sex
Female 3.6% 3.6% 0.1% 30,189
Male 2.7% 2.8% 0.1% 30,693
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 5.8% 6.0% 0.2% 17,330
White 1.9% 2.0% 0.0% 21,380
Black 8.2% 8.3% 0.1% 11,262
Other 4.7% 5.0% 0.3% 10,909
Immigration
Immigrant 5.4% 5.6% 0.2% 22,219
Native Born 2.7% 2.8% 0.1% 38,663
Age
60–69 4.2% 4.4% 0.2% 42,814
70–79 2.9% 3.0% 0.1% 18,069
80–89 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0
90+ 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Never Married 11.6% 11.8% 0.2% 9,720
Married 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 14,553
Divorced 5.4% 5.5% 0.2% 22,839
Widowed 3.2% 3.3% 0.1% 13,768
Education
Graduate 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0
Bachelor 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 8,969
Associate 2.5% 2.5% 0.1% 10,938
High School 4.3% 4.4% 0.1% 26,845
Less than 12 Yrs 9.8% 10.1% 0.3% 14,130
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$51,630 - $92,568 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$32,444 - $51,630 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$19,359 - $32,444 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2,415
$0-$19,359 15.8% 16.2% 0.4% 58,467
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$88,261 - $156,005 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$53,741 - $88,261 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$29,648 - $53,741 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$29,648 15.8% 16.3% 0.4% 60,883
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$63,084 - $85,700 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2,415
$46,412 - $63,084 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$29,733 - $46,412 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 6,874
$0-$29,733 15.3% 15.6% 0.4% 51,593
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 2.6% 2.7% 0.1% 41,184
Spousal & Worker 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1,160
Spousal Only 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0
Survivor & Worker 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% 9,929
Survivor Only 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0
Retired Disabled 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 2,355
Disabled Worker 7.0% 7.1% 0.1% 6,253
Claiming Age
62 or younger 4.7% 4.9% 0.1% 47,658
63–66 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 6,671
67 or older 1.7% 1.8% 0.2% 6,553
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 950
161–200 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 3,714
81–160 3.0% 3.2% 0.2% 41,898
0–80 14.0% 14.2% 0.1% 14,320
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$4,819 - $7,147 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$3,235 - $4,819 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2,415
$1,780 - $3,235 2.8% 3.1% 0.3% 36,886
$0-$1,780 12.9% 13.1% 0.2% 21,580
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$6,129 - $8,406 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$4,412 - $6,129 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1,160
$2,836 - $4,412 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 7,532
$0-$2,836 15.1% 15.5% 0.4% 52,189
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$2,211 - $3,023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,683 - $2,211 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2,415
$1,193 - $1,683 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$1,193 15.7% 16.2% 0.4% 58,467
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$81,240 - $116,762 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$52,849 - $81,240 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0
$1 - $52,849 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 3,297
$0.00 9.7% 10.0% 0.3% 57,585
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 4. Median Monthly Scheduled Benefit, 2030
Characteristic Wage-Adjusted (2012 $) Inflation-Adjusted (2012 $) Nominal
(2030 $)
Total $1,103 $1,420 $2,241
Sex
Female $993 $1,278 $2,017
Male $1,232 $1,585 $2,502
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic $882 $1,136 $1,793
White $1,166 $1,501 $2,368
Black $963 $1,239 $1,956
Other $981 $1,262 $1,992
Immigration
Immigrant $879 $1,132 $1,786
Native Born $1,141 $1,469 $2,318
Age
60–69 $1,007 $1,296 $2,046
70–79 $1,138 $1,464 $2,311
80–89 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
90+ $1,139 $1,466 $2,313
Marital Status
Never Married $970 $1,248 $1,970
Married $1,065 $1,370 $2,163
Divorced $1,098 $1,414 $2,231
Widowed $1,224 $1,575 $2,486
Education
Graduate $1,444 $1,858 $2,932
Bachelor $1,286 $1,656 $2,613
Associate $1,100 $1,416 $2,234
High School $1,013 $1,304 $2,058
Less than 12 Yrs $791 $1,018 $1,607
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ $1,477 $1,902 $3,001
$51,630 - $92,568 $1,322 $1,701 $2,685
$32,444 - $51,630 $1,176 $1,514 $2,389
$19,359 - $32,444 $1,064 $1,370 $2,162
$0-$19,359 $695 $894 $1,411
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ $1,383 $1,780 $2,809
$88,261 - $156,005 $1,259 $1,621 $2,558
$53,741 - $88,261 $1,172 $1,508 $2,380
$29,648 - $53,741 $1,060 $1,364 $2,152
$0-$29,648 $808 $1,040 $1,641
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ $1,598 $2,057 $3,246
$63,084 - $85,700 $1,332 $1,714 $2,705
$46,412 - $63,084 $1,145 $1,474 $2,327
$29,733 - $46,412 $952 $1,226 $1,934
$0-$29,733 $664 $855 $1,349
Benefit Type
Retired Worker $1,133 $1,459 $2,302
Spousal & Worker $710 $914 $1,442
Spousal Only $498 $641 $1,012
Survivor & Worker $1,277 $1,643 $2,593
Survivor Only $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Retired Disabled $1,093 $1,406 $2,219
Disabled Worker $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Claiming Age
62 or younger $969 $1,247 $1,968
63–66 $1,268 $1,632 $2,576
67 or older $1,419 $1,827 $2,883
Quarters of Coverage
201+ $1,512 $1,946 $3,070
161–200 $1,241 $1,597 $2,520
81–160 $925 $1,191 $1,879
0–80 $651 $838 $1,322
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$4,819 - $7,147 $1,320 $1,700 $2,682
$3,235 - $4,819 $1,026 $1,320 $2,084
$1,780 - $3,235 $803 $1,033 $1,630
$0-$1,780 $615 $792 $1,249
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$6,129 - $8,406 $1,392 $1,792 $2,828
$4,412 - $6,129 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
$2,836 - $4,412 $916 $1,179 $1,861
$0-$2,836 $608 $783 $1,236
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ $1,456 $1,874 $2,958
$2,211 - $3,023 $1,223 $1,574 $2,484
$1,683 - $2,211 $1,398 $1,799 $2,839
$1,193 - $1,683 $1,083 $1,394 $2,199
$0-$1,193 $668 $860 $1,357
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ $1,400 $1,802 $2,844
$81,240 - $116,762 $1,246 $1,604 $2,531
$52,849 - $81,240 $1,174 $1,511 $2,384
$1 - $52,849 $1,004 $1,292 $2,039
$0.00 $926 $1,192 $1,881
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.