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Cost of Living Adjustment Changes

Increase the Cost of Living Adjustment by basing it on the CPI-E

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

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Table 1. Individual benefits 2030: CPI-E COLA versus Scheduled
Characteristic Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 2% 0% 80%
Sex
Female 2% 0% 81%
Male 2% 0% 78%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 1% 0% 71%
White 2% 0% 82%
Black 2% 0% 77%
Other 2% 0% 75%
Immigration
Immigrant 1% 0% 73%
Native Born 2% 0% 81%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 43%
70–79 2% 0% 99%
80–89 2% 0% 100%
90+ 2% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Never Married 1% 0% 74%
Married 1% 0% 75%
Divorced 2% 0% 79%
Widowed 2% 0% 94%
Education
Graduate 2% 0% 83%
Bachelor 2% 0% 79%
Associate 2% 0% 79%
High School 2% 0% 80%
Less than 12 Yrs 2% 0% 77%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 2% 0% 83%
$51,630 - $92,568 2% 0% 79%
$32,444 - $51,630 2% 0% 79%
$19,359 - $32,444 2% 0% 79%
$0-$19,359 2% 0% 79%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 2% 0% 78%
$88,261 - $156,005 2% 0% 78%
$53,741 - $88,261 2% 0% 80%
$29,648 - $53,741 2% 0% 80%
$0-$29,648 2% 0% 82%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 2% 0% 83%
$63,084 - $85,700 2% 0% 81%
$46,412 - $63,084 2% 0% 80%
$29,733 - $46,412 2% 0% 77%
$0-$29,733 2% 0% 78%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 1% 0% 76%
Spousal & Worker 2% 0% 82%
Spousal Only 2% 0% 88%
Survivor & Worker 2% 0% 95%
Survivor Only 2% 0% 89%
Retired Disabled 2% 0% 97%
Disabled Worker 0% 0% 50%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 2% 0% 77%
63–66 2% 0% 81%
67 or older 2% 0% 97%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 2% 0% 84%
161–200 2% 0% 76%
81–160 2% 0% 78%
0–80 2% 0% 88%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 2% 0% 82%
$4,819 - $7,147 2% 0% 79%
$3,235 - $4,819 2% 0% 78%
$1,780 - $3,235 2% 0% 77%
$0-$1,780 2% 0% 83%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 2% 0% 86%
$6,129 - $8,406 2% 0% 84%
$4,412 - $6,129 2% 0% 80%
$2,836 - $4,412 1% 0% 75%
$0-$2,836 1% 0% 73%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 2% 0% 83%
$2,211 - $3,023 2% 0% 81%
$1,683 - $2,211 2% 0% 80%
$1,193 - $1,683 2% 0% 80%
$0-$1,193 2% 0% 74%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 2% 0% 77%
$81,240 - $116,762 2% 0% 80%
$52,849 - $81,240 2% 0% 80%
$1 - $52,849 2% 0% 78%
$0.00 2% 0% 81%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 2. Distribution of changes 2030: CPI-E COLA versus Scheduled
Characteristic % of Population With % Change of
-20%+ -10 to -19% -1 to -9% No change +1 to +9% +10 to +19% +20%+
Total 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 19% 81% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 22% 78% 0% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 29% 71% 0% 0%
White 0% 0% 0% 18% 81% 0% 0%
Black 0% 0% 0% 23% 77% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 25% 75% 0% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant 0% 0% 0% 26% 73% 0% 0%
Native Born 0% 0% 0% 19% 81% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 57% 43% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married 0% 0% 0% 26% 74% 0% 0%
Married 0% 0% 0% 25% 75% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 21% 79% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 6% 94% 0% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 17% 83% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 21% 79% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 21% 79% 0% 0%
High School 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 0% 23% 76% 0% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0% 0% 0% 17% 82% 0% 0%
$51,630 - $92,568 0% 0% 0% 21% 79% 0% 0%
$32,444 - $51,630 0% 0% 0% 21% 78% 0% 0%
$19,359 - $32,444 0% 0% 0% 21% 79% 0% 0%
$0-$19,359 0% 0% 0% 21% 79% 0% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0% 0% 0% 22% 78% 0% 0%
$88,261 - $156,005 0% 0% 0% 22% 78% 0% 0%
$53,741 - $88,261 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0%
$29,648 - $53,741 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0%
$0-$29,648 0% 0% 0% 18% 82% 0% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0% 0% 0% 17% 82% 0% 0%
$63,084 - $85,700 0% 0% 0% 19% 81% 0% 0%
$46,412 - $63,084 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0%
$29,733 - $46,412 0% 0% 0% 23% 77% 0% 0%
$0-$29,733 0% 0% 0% 22% 78% 0% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 0% 0% 0% 24% 76% 0% 0%
Spousal & Worker 0% 0% 0% 18% 82% 0% 0%
Spousal Only 0% 0% 0% 11% 87% 1% 0%
Survivor & Worker 0% 0% 0% 4% 95% 0% 0%
Survivor Only 0% 0% 0% 11% 88% 0% 1%
Retired Disabled 0% 0% 0% 2% 97% 0% 0%
Disabled Worker 0% 0% 0% 50% 50% 0% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 0% 0% 0% 23% 77% 0% 0%
63–66 0% 0% 0% 19% 81% 0% 0%
67 or older 0% 0% 0% 3% 96% 0% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0% 0% 0% 16% 84% 0% 0%
161–200 0% 0% 0% 24% 76% 0% 0%
81–160 0% 0% 0% 22% 78% 0% 0%
0–80 0% 0% 0% 12% 87% 0% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0% 0% 0% 18% 82% 0% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 0% 0% 0% 21% 79% 0% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 0% 0% 0% 22% 78% 0% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 0% 0% 0% 23% 77% 0% 0%
$0-$1,780 0% 0% 0% 17% 82% 0% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0% 0% 0% 14% 86% 0% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 0% 0% 0% 16% 84% 0% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 0% 0% 0% 24% 75% 0% 0%
$0-$2,836 0% 0% 0% 27% 73% 0% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0% 0% 0% 17% 83% 0% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 0% 0% 0% 19% 81% 0% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0%
$1,193 - $1,683 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0%
$0-$1,193 0% 0% 0% 25% 74% 0% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0% 0% 0% 23% 77% 0% 0%
$81,240 - $116,762 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0%
$52,849 - $81,240 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0%
$1 - $52,849 0% 0% 0% 22% 78% 0% 0%
$0.00 0% 0% 0% 19% 81% 0% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 3. Poverty 2030: CPI-E COLA versus Scheduled
Characteristic Poverty Rate # of Poor Change
Scheduled Option Diff
Total 3.1% 3.0% -0.1% -86,395
Sex
Female 3.6% 3.4% -0.1% -58,102
Male 2.7% 2.6% -0.1% -28,292
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 5.8% 5.6% -0.2% -14,430
White 1.9% 1.8% -0.1% -44,423
Black 8.2% 7.9% -0.3% -19,578
Other 4.7% 4.5% -0.2% -7,962
Immigration
Immigrant 5.4% 5.2% -0.2% -24,424
Native Born 2.7% 2.6% -0.1% -61,970
Age
60–69 4.2% 4.2% -0.1% -14,528
70–79 2.9% 2.8% -0.2% -50,038
80–89 1.9% 1.8% -0.1% -15,905
90+ 1.3% 1.0% -0.3% -5,921
Marital Status
Never Married 11.6% 11.2% -0.4% -21,245
Married 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% -18,512
Divorced 5.4% 5.1% -0.2% -30,167
Widowed 3.2% 3.0% -0.1% -16,469
Education
Graduate 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% -3,294
Bachelor 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% -2,822
Associate 2.5% 2.4% -0.1% -16,003
High School 4.3% 4.1% -0.2% -53,938
Less than 12 Yrs 9.8% 9.6% -0.2% -10,336
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$51,630 - $92,568 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$32,444 - $51,630 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$19,359 - $32,444 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$19,359 15.8% 15.2% -0.6% -86,395
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$88,261 - $156,005 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$53,741 - $88,261 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$29,648 - $53,741 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$29,648 15.8% 15.2% -0.6% -86,395
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$63,084 - $85,700 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$46,412 - $63,084 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -1,087
$29,733 - $46,412 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% -6,200
$0-$29,733 15.3% 14.7% -0.6% -79,106
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 2.6% 2.5% -0.1% -28,681
Spousal & Worker 1.3% 1.1% -0.1% -4,771
Spousal Only 7.3% 7.1% -0.2% -2,474
Survivor & Worker 1.4% 1.2% -0.1% -13,549
Survivor Only 9.0% 8.2% -0.8% -10,182
Retired Disabled 6.0% 5.6% -0.4% -25,462
Disabled Worker 7.0% 6.9% 0.0% -1,272
Claiming Age
62 or younger 4.7% 4.6% -0.2% -56,732
63–66 1.4% 1.4% -0.1% -21,412
67 or older 1.7% 1.5% -0.2% -8,250
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
161–200 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% -9,150
81–160 3.0% 2.9% -0.1% -29,731
0–80 14.0% 13.6% -0.5% -47,513
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$4,819 - $7,147 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$3,235 - $4,819 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3,085
$1,780 - $3,235 2.8% 2.6% -0.3% -40,751
$0-$1,780 12.9% 12.6% -0.3% -42,557
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$6,129 - $8,406 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -1,732
$4,412 - $6,129 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -1,211
$2,836 - $4,412 0.5% 0.4% -0.1% -16,656
$0-$2,836 15.1% 14.6% -0.5% -66,794
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$2,211 - $3,023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,683 - $2,211 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,193 - $1,683 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$1,193 15.7% 15.1% -0.6% -86,395
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$81,240 - $116,762 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$52,849 - $81,240 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0
$1 - $52,849 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% -1,554
$0.00 9.7% 9.3% -0.4% -84,840
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 4. Median Monthly Scheduled Benefit, 2030
Characteristic Wage-Adjusted (2012 $) Inflation-Adjusted (2012 $) Nominal (2030 $)
Total $1,103 $1,420 $2,241
Sex
Female $993 $1,278 $2,017
Male $1,232 $1,585 $2,502
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic $882 $1,136 $1,793
White $1,166 $1,501 $2,368
Black $963 $1,239 $1,956
Other $981 $1,262 $1,992
Immigration
Immigrant $879 $1,132 $1,786
Native Born $1,141 $1,469 $2,318
Age
60–69 $1,007 $1,296 $2,046
70–79 $1,138 $1,464 $2,311
80–89 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
90+ $1,139 $1,466 $2,313
Marital Status
Never Married $970 $1,248 $1,970
Married $1,065 $1,370 $2,163
Divorced $1,098 $1,414 $2,231
Widowed $1,224 $1,575 $2,486
Education
Graduate $1,444 $1,858 $2,932
Bachelor $1,286 $1,656 $2,613
Associate $1,100 $1,416 $2,234
High School $1,013 $1,304 $2,058
Less than 12 Yrs $791 $1,018 $1,607
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ $1,477 $1,902 $3,001
$51,630 - $92,568 $1,322 $1,701 $2,685
$32,444 - $51,630 $1,176 $1,514 $2,389
$19,359 - $32,444 $1,064 $1,370 $2,162
$0-$19,359 $695 $894 $1,411
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ $1,383 $1,780 $2,809
$88,261 - $156,005 $1,259 $1,621 $2,558
$53,741 - $88,261 $1,172 $1,508 $2,380
$29,648 - $53,741 $1,060 $1,364 $2,152
$0-$29,648 $808 $1,040 $1,641
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ $1,598 $2,057 $3,246
$63,084 - $85,700 $1,332 $1,714 $2,705
$46,412 - $63,084 $1,145 $1,474 $2,327
$29,733 - $46,412 $952 $1,226 $1,934
$0-$29,733 $664 $855 $1,349
Benefit Type
Retired Worker $1,133 $1,459 $2,302
Spousal & Worker $710 $914 $1,442
Spousal Only $498 $641 $1,012
Survivor & Worker $1,277 $1,643 $2,593
Survivor Only $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Retired Disabled $1,093 $1,406 $2,219
Disabled Worker $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Claiming Age
62 or younger $969 $1,247 $1,968
63–66 $1,268 $1,632 $2,576
67 or older $1,419 $1,827 $2,883
Quarters of Coverage
201+ $1,512 $1,946 $3,070
161–200 $1,241 $1,597 $2,520
81–160 $925 $1,191 $1,879
0–80 $651 $838 $1,322
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$4,819 - $7,147 $1,320 $1,700 $2,682
$3,235 - $4,819 $1,026 $1,320 $2,084
$1,780 - $3,235 $803 $1,033 $1,630
$0-$1,780 $615 $792 $1,249
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$6,129 - $8,406 $1,392 $1,792 $2,828
$4,412 - $6,129 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
$2,836 - $4,412 $916 $1,179 $1,861
$0-$2,836 $608 $783 $1,236
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ $1,456 $1,874 $2,958
$2,211 - $3,023 $1,223 $1,574 $2,484
$1,683 - $2,211 $1,398 $1,799 $2,839
$1,193 - $1,683 $1,083 $1,394 $2,199
$0-$1,193 $668 $860 $1,357
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ $1,400 $1,802 $2,844
$81,240 - $116,762 $1,246 $1,604 $2,531
$52,849 - $81,240 $1,174 $1,511 $2,384
$1 - $52,849 $1,004 $1,292 $2,039
$0.00 $926 $1,192 $1,881
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.