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Cost of Living Adjustment Changes

Reduce the Cost of Living Adjustment by basing it on the Chained CPI

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

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Table 1. Individual benefits 2030: SSAB Chained CPI versus Scheduled
Characteristic Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total -3% 89% 0%
Sex
Female -3% 90% 0%
Male -3% 88% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic -2% 82% 0%
White -3% 90% 0%
Black -3% 88% 0%
Other -3% 86% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant -2% 85% 0%
Native Born -3% 90% 0%
Age
60–69 -1% 69% 0%
70–79 -3% 100% 0%
80–89 -5% 100% 0%
90+ -5% 100% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married -2% 86% 0%
Married -2% 87% 0%
Divorced -3% 88% 0%
Widowed -5% 96% 0%
Education
Graduate -3% 91% 0%
Bachelor -3% 89% 0%
Associate -3% 89% 0%
High School -3% 89% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs -3% 87% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ -3% 91% 0%
$51,630 - $92,568 -3% 89% 0%
$32,444 - $51,630 -3% 89% 0%
$19,359 - $32,444 -3% 88% 0%
$0-$19,359 -3% 88% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ -3% 88% 0%
$88,261 - $156,005 -3% 88% 0%
$53,741 - $88,261 -3% 90% 0%
$29,648 - $53,741 -3% 89% 0%
$0-$29,648 -4% 89% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ -3% 91% 0%
$63,084 - $85,700 -3% 90% 0%
$46,412 - $63,084 -3% 89% 0%
$29,733 - $46,412 -3% 87% 0%
$0-$29,733 -3% 87% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker -2% 87% 0%
Spousal & Worker -3% 91% 0%
Spousal Only -3% 96% 0%
Survivor & Worker -5% 97% 0%
Survivor Only -5% 91% 0%
Retired Disabled -4% 100% 0%
Disabled Worker -1% 71% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger -3% 85% 0%
63–66 -3% 92% 0%
67 or older -4% 99% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ -3% 93% 0%
161–200 -3% 87% 0%
81–160 -3% 87% 0%
0–80 -4% 93% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ -3% 91% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 -3% 89% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 -3% 87% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 -3% 87% 0%
$0-$1,780 -3% 90% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ -3% 93% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 -4% 92% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 -3% 89% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 -2% 86% 0%
$0-$2,836 -2% 85% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ -3% 93% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 -3% 91% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 -3% 89% 0%
$1,193 - $1,683 -4% 88% 0%
$0-$1,193 -3% 84% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ -3% 88% 0%
$81,240 - $116,762 -3% 90% 0%
$52,849 - $81,240 -3% 90% 0%
$1 - $52,849 -3% 88% 0%
$0.00 -3% 89% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 2. Distribution of changes 2030: SSAB Chained CPI versus Scheduled
Characteristic % of Population With % Change of
-20%+ -10 to -19% -1 to -9% No change +1 to +9% +10 to +19% +20%+
Total 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 89% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 0% 0% 82% 18% 0% 0% 0%
White 0% 0% 90% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Black 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 86% 14% 0% 0% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant 0% 0% 85% 15% 0% 0% 0%
Native Born 0% 0% 89% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 69% 31% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married 0% 0% 86% 14% 0% 0% 0%
Married 0% 0% 86% 13% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 96% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 90% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 88% 11% 0% 0% 0%
High School 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 86% 13% 0% 0% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0% 0% 90% 9% 0% 0% 0%
$51,630 - $92,568 0% 0% 88% 11% 0% 0% 0%
$32,444 - $51,630 0% 0% 88% 11% 0% 0% 0%
$19,359 - $32,444 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$19,359 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0%
$88,261 - $156,005 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0%
$53,741 - $88,261 0% 0% 89% 10% 0% 0% 0%
$29,648 - $53,741 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$29,648 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0% 0% 91% 9% 0% 0% 0%
$63,084 - $85,700 0% 0% 90% 10% 0% 0% 0%
$46,412 - $63,084 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0%
$29,733 - $46,412 0% 0% 87% 13% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$29,733 0% 0% 87% 13% 0% 0% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 0% 0% 87% 13% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal & Worker 0% 0% 90% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal Only 0% 1% 95% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Survivor & Worker 0% 0% 97% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Survivor Only 1% 1% 89% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Retired Disabled 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled Worker 0% 0% 71% 29% 0% 0% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 0% 0% 85% 15% 0% 0% 0%
63–66 0% 0% 91% 8% 0% 0% 0%
67 or older 0% 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0% 0% 92% 7% 0% 0% 0%
161–200 0% 0% 86% 13% 0% 0% 0%
81–160 0% 0% 87% 13% 0% 0% 0%
0–80 0% 0% 93% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0% 0% 91% 9% 0% 0% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 0% 0% 87% 13% 0% 0% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 0% 0% 87% 13% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$1,780 0% 0% 89% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0% 0% 93% 7% 0% 0% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 0% 0% 91% 8% 0% 0% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 0% 0% 86% 14% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$2,836 0% 0% 84% 15% 0% 0% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0% 0% 93% 7% 0% 0% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 0% 0% 90% 9% 0% 0% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0%
$1,193 - $1,683 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$1,193 0% 0% 83% 16% 0% 0% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0% 0% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0%
$81,240 - $116,762 0% 0% 90% 10% 0% 0% 0%
$52,849 - $81,240 0% 0% 90% 10% 0% 0% 0%
$1 - $52,849 0% 0% 87% 12% 0% 0% 0%
$0.00 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 3. Poverty 2030: SSAB Chained CPI versus Scheduled
Characteristic Poverty Rate # of Poor Change
Scheduled Option Diff
Total 3.1% 3.4% 0.3% 211,844
Sex
Female 3.6% 3.9% 0.3% 124,047
Male 2.7% 2.9% 0.3% 87,796
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 5.8% 6.4% 0.6% 47,514
White 1.9% 2.1% 0.2% 90,594
Black 8.2% 8.9% 0.7% 54,859
Other 4.7% 5.2% 0.5% 18,875
Immigration
Immigrant 5.4% 6.0% 0.6% 68,688
Native Born 2.7% 3.0% 0.2% 143,156
Age
60–69 4.2% 4.5% 0.2% 59,670
70–79 2.9% 3.3% 0.3% 102,572
80–89 1.9% 2.2% 0.3% 46,911
90+ 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% 2,689
Marital Status
Never Married 11.6% 12.4% 0.8% 38,491
Married 1.3% 1.5% 0.2% 61,741
Divorced 5.4% 5.7% 0.3% 37,231
Widowed 3.2% 3.7% 0.5% 74,379
Education
Graduate 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 2,751
Bachelor 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 11,843
Associate 2.5% 2.7% 0.2% 37,087
High School 4.3% 4.7% 0.4% 116,816
Less than 12 Yrs 9.8% 10.8% 1.0% 43,344
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$51,630 - $92,568 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$32,444 - $51,630 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$19,359 - $32,444 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$19,359 15.8% 17.3% 1.5% 211,844
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$88,261 - $156,005 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$53,741 - $88,261 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$29,648 - $53,741 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$29,648 15.8% 17.3% 1.5% 211,844
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1,368
$63,084 - $85,700 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$46,412 - $63,084 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2,868
$29,733 - $46,412 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 11,321
$0-$29,733 15.3% 16.7% 1.4% 196,284
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 2.6% 2.8% 0.2% 79,729
Spousal & Worker 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% 2,594
Spousal Only 7.3% 7.8% 0.5% 6,070
Survivor & Worker 1.4% 1.7% 0.4% 34,880
Survivor Only 9.0% 10.2% 1.2% 16,381
Retired Disabled 6.0% 6.8% 0.8% 53,132
Disabled Worker 7.0% 7.4% 0.4% 19,055
Claiming Age
62 or younger 4.7% 5.2% 0.4% 152,541
63–66 1.4% 1.6% 0.2% 47,517
67 or older 1.7% 2.0% 0.3% 11,785
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 950
161–200 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 12,532
81–160 3.0% 3.4% 0.4% 110,058
0–80 14.0% 14.9% 0.9% 88,301
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$4,819 - $7,147 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$3,235 - $4,819 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 831
$1,780 - $3,235 2.8% 3.4% 0.6% 86,341
$0-$1,780 12.9% 13.8% 0.9% 124,671
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$6,129 - $8,406 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$4,412 - $6,129 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2,661
$2,836 - $4,412 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 38,590
$0-$2,836 15.1% 16.3% 1.2% 170,592
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$2,211 - $3,023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,683 - $2,211 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,193 - $1,683 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$1,193 15.7% 17.2% 1.5% 211,844
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$81,240 - $116,762 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1,587
$52,849 - $81,240 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0
$1 - $52,849 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 15,481
$0.00 9.7% 10.6% 0.9% 194,775
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 4. Median Monthly Scheduled Benefit, 2030
Characteristic Wage-Adjusted (2012 $) Inflation-Adjusted (2012 $) Nominal
(2030 $)
Total $1,103 $1,420 $2,241
Sex
Female $993 $1,278 $2,017
Male $1,232 $1,585 $2,502
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic $882 $1,136 $1,793
White $1,166 $1,501 $2,368
Black $963 $1,239 $1,956
Other $981 $1,262 $1,992
Immigration
Immigrant $879 $1,132 $1,786
Native Born $1,141 $1,469 $2,318
Age
60–69 $1,007 $1,296 $2,046
70–79 $1,138 $1,464 $2,311
80–89 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
90+ $1,139 $1,466 $2,313
Marital Status
Never Married $970 $1,248 $1,970
Married $1,065 $1,370 $2,163
Divorced $1,098 $1,414 $2,231
Widowed $1,224 $1,575 $2,486
Education
Graduate $1,444 $1,858 $2,932
Bachelor $1,286 $1,656 $2,613
Associate $1,100 $1,416 $2,234
High School $1,013 $1,304 $2,058
Less than 12 Yrs $791 $1,018 $1,607
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ $1,477 $1,902 $3,001
$51,630 - $92,568 $1,322 $1,701 $2,685
$32,444 - $51,630 $1,176 $1,514 $2,389
$19,359 - $32,444 $1,064 $1,370 $2,162
$0-$19,359 $695 $894 $1,411
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ $1,383 $1,780 $2,809
$88,261 - $156,005 $1,259 $1,621 $2,558
$53,741 - $88,261 $1,172 $1,508 $2,380
$29,648 - $53,741 $1,060 $1,364 $2,152
$0-$29,648 $808 $1,040 $1,641
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ $1,598 $2,057 $3,246
$63,084 - $85,700 $1,332 $1,714 $2,705
$46,412 - $63,084 $1,145 $1,474 $2,327
$29,733 - $46,412 $952 $1,226 $1,934
$0-$29,733 $664 $855 $1,349
Benefit Type
Retired Worker $1,133 $1,459 $2,302
Spousal & Worker $710 $914 $1,442
Spousal Only $498 $641 $1,012
Survivor & Worker $1,277 $1,643 $2,593
Survivor Only $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Retired Disabled $1,093 $1,406 $2,219
Disabled Worker $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Claiming Age
62 or younger $969 $1,247 $1,968
63–66 $1,268 $1,632 $2,576
67 or older $1,419 $1,827 $2,883
Quarters of Coverage
201+ $1,512 $1,946 $3,070
161–200 $1,241 $1,597 $2,520
81–160 $925 $1,191 $1,879
0–80 $651 $838 $1,322
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$4,819 - $7,147 $1,320 $1,700 $2,682
$3,235 - $4,819 $1,026 $1,320 $2,084
$1,780 - $3,235 $803 $1,033 $1,630
$0-$1,780 $615 $792 $1,249
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$6,129 - $8,406 $1,392 $1,792 $2,828
$4,412 - $6,129 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
$2,836 - $4,412 $916 $1,179 $1,861
$0-$2,836 $608 $783 $1,236
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ $1,456 $1,874 $2,958
$2,211 - $3,023 $1,223 $1,574 $2,484
$1,683 - $2,211 $1,398 $1,799 $2,839
$1,193 - $1,683 $1,083 $1,394 $2,199
$0-$1,193 $668 $860 $1,357
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ $1,400 $1,802 $2,844
$81,240 - $116,762 $1,246 $1,604 $2,531
$52,849 - $81,240 $1,174 $1,511 $2,384
$1 - $52,849 $1,004 $1,292 $2,039
$0.00 $926 $1,192 $1,881
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.