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Projections—Policy Options
Benefit Formula Changes
Cost of Living Adjustment Changes
Covered Worker Changes
Retirement Age Increases
Increase the EEA from 62 and the FRA from 67: At a rate of 1 month every 2 years starting in 2017 (EEA) and 2023 (FRA): 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Increase the FRA from 67: At a rate of 1 month every 2 years starting in 2023: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Increase the FRA from 67: To 68, at a rate of 1 month every 2 years: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Taxation Changes
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Retirement Age Increases

Increase the EEA from 62 and the FRA from 67 at a rate of 1 month every 2 years starting in 2017 (EEA) and 2023 (FRA)

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Compare all options »

Table 1. Individual benefits 2030: Increase EEA and FRA versus Scheduled
Characteristic Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 9% 17%
Sex
Female 0% 10% 18%
Male 0% 7% 17%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 0% 13% 20%
White 0% 7% 17%
Black 0% 9% 19%
Other 0% 15% 17%
Immigration
Immigrant 0% 16% 18%
Native Born 0% 7% 17%
Age
60–69 0% 22% 31%
70–79 0% 2% 16%
80–89 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married 0% 8% 20%
Married 0% 10% 22%
Divorced 0% 9% 20%
Widowed 0% 6% 4%
Education
Graduate 0% 8% 12%
Bachelor 0% 10% 15%
Associate 0% 8% 19%
High School 0% 8% 19%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 12% 19%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0% 8% 11%
$51,630 - $92,568 0% 9% 14%
$32,444 - $51,630 0% 9% 18%
$19,359 - $32,444 0% 8% 21%
$0-$19,359 0% 8% 24%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0% 9% 15%
$88,261 - $156,005 0% 9% 17%
$53,741 - $88,261 0% 8% 18%
$29,648 - $53,741 0% 9% 19%
$0-$29,648 0% 8% 19%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0% 5% 14%
$63,084 - $85,700 0% 8% 16%
$46,412 - $63,084 0% 8% 19%
$29,733 - $46,412 0% 10% 19%
$0-$29,733 0% 11% 19%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 0% 10% 23%
Spousal & Worker 0% 8% 36%
Spousal Only 0% 13% 16%
Survivor & Worker 0% 7% 7%
Survivor Only 0% 12% 1%
Retired Disabled 0% 2% 1%
Disabled Worker 0% 2% 2%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 0% 4% 34%
63–66 0% 14% 0%
67 or older 0% 4% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0% 6% 8%
161–200 0% 8% 21%
81–160 0% 10% 21%
0–80 0% 9% 14%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0% 4% 13%
$4,819 - $7,147 0% 8% 16%
$3,235 - $4,819 0% 9% 19%
$1,780 - $3,235 0% 11% 20%
$0-$1,780 0% 11% 19%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0% 4% 13%
$6,129 - $8,406 0% 5% 15%
$4,412 - $6,129 0% 10% 16%
$2,836 - $4,412 0% 11% 20%
$0-$2,836 0% 12% 23%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0% 6% 16%
$2,211 - $3,023 0% 7% 18%
$1,683 - $2,211 0% 8% 16%
$1,193 - $1,683 0% 10% 15%
$0-$1,193 0% 12% 23%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0% 10% 15%
$81,240 - $116,762 0% 9% 18%
$52,849 - $81,240 0% 9% 17%
$1 - $52,849 0% 10% 20%
$0.00 0% 7% 18%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 04/16/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 2. Distribution of changes 2030: Increase EEA and FRA versus Scheduled
Characteristic % of Population With % Change of
-20%+ -10 to -19% -1 to -9% No change +1 to +9% +10 to +19% +20%+
Total 1% 0% 7% 74% 17% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 2% 0% 8% 72% 18% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 6% 76% 16% 0% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 2% 0% 11% 67% 20% 0% 0%
White 1% 0% 6% 76% 17% 0% 0%
Black 1% 0% 8% 72% 19% 0% 0%
Other 1% 0% 13% 68% 16% 0% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant 2% 0% 14% 67% 17% 0% 0%
Native Born 1% 0% 6% 75% 17% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 3% 0% 18% 47% 30% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 0% 2% 83% 16% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married 0% 0% 7% 73% 19% 0% 0%
Married 1% 0% 8% 69% 21% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 7% 72% 19% 0% 0%
Widowed 1% 0% 5% 91% 4% 0% 0%
Education
Graduate 1% 0% 7% 81% 12% 0% 0%
Bachelor 2% 0% 8% 75% 15% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 0% 6% 73% 19% 0% 0%
High School 1% 0% 7% 73% 19% 0% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 2% 0% 10% 69% 19% 0% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 1% 0% 7% 81% 10% 0% 0%
$51,630 - $92,568 1% 0% 8% 77% 13% 0% 1%
$32,444 - $51,630 1% 0% 8% 73% 17% 0% 0%
$19,359 - $32,444 1% 0% 6% 72% 21% 0% 0%
$0-$19,359 1% 0% 7% 67% 24% 0% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 1% 0% 8% 76% 14% 0% 0%
$88,261 - $156,005 1% 0% 8% 74% 16% 0% 0%
$53,741 - $88,261 1% 0% 7% 74% 17% 0% 0%
$29,648 - $53,741 1% 0% 7% 72% 19% 0% 0%
$0-$29,648 1% 0% 6% 74% 19% 0% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 1% 0% 5% 81% 13% 0% 0%
$63,084 - $85,700 1% 0% 6% 76% 16% 0% 0%
$46,412 - $63,084 1% 0% 7% 74% 18% 0% 0%
$29,733 - $46,412 2% 0% 9% 70% 19% 0% 0%
$0-$29,733 2% 0% 10% 69% 19% 0% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 1% 0% 9% 67% 22% 0% 0%
Spousal & Worker 2% 0% 5% 56% 35% 1% 0%
Spousal Only 3% 0% 10% 71% 16% 0% 0%
Survivor & Worker 0% 0% 6% 87% 6% 0% 0%
Survivor Only 4% 0% 7% 87% 1% 0% 0%
Retired Disabled 0% 0% 2% 96% 1% 0% 0%
Disabled Worker 0% 0% 2% 96% 2% 0% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 2% 0% 2% 62% 33% 0% 0%
63–66 0% 0% 14% 86% 0% 0% 0%
67 or older 0% 0% 4% 96% 0% 0% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0% 0% 5% 86% 8% 0% 0%
161–200 1% 0% 7% 71% 20% 0% 0%
81–160 1% 0% 8% 69% 21% 0% 0%
0–80 1% 0% 8% 77% 14% 0% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 1% 0% 3% 83% 13% 0% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 1% 0% 7% 76% 16% 0% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 1% 0% 8% 72% 19% 0% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 1% 0% 9% 69% 20% 0% 0%
$0-$1,780 2% 0% 9% 70% 19% 0% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 1% 0% 3% 83% 13% 0% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 1% 0% 4% 80% 15% 0% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 1% 0% 9% 73% 16% 0% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 1% 0% 9% 69% 20% 0% 0%
$0-$2,836 2% 0% 10% 65% 23% 0% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 1% 0% 5% 78% 16% 0% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 1% 0% 6% 75% 17% 0% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 1% 0% 7% 76% 16% 0% 0%
$1,193 - $1,683 1% 0% 8% 75% 15% 0% 0%
$0-$1,193 2% 0% 10% 65% 22% 0% 1%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 1% 0% 8% 75% 14% 0% 0%
$81,240 - $116,762 1% 0% 7% 74% 17% 0% 0%
$52,849 - $81,240 1% 0% 7% 75% 16% 0% 0%
$1 - $52,849 1% 0% 8% 70% 20% 0% 0%
$0.00 1% 0% 6% 75% 18% 0% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 04/16/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 3. Poverty 2030: Increase EEA and FRA versus Scheduled
Characteristic Poverty Rate # of Poor Change
Scheduled Option Diff
Total 3.1% 3.2% 0.1% 42,492
Sex
Female 3.6% 3.6% 0.1% 33,136
Male 2.6% 2.7% 0.0% 9,356
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 5.8% 5.9% 0.1% 10,240
White 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% 35,742
Black 8.1% 8.1% -0.1% -6,312
Other 4.7% 4.8% 0.1% 2,821
Immigration
Immigrant 5.4% 5.5% 0.1% 12,716
Native Born 2.7% 2.8% 0.0% 29,775
Age
60–69 4.2% 4.4% 0.2% 56,727
70–79 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% -11,891
80–89 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% -2,343
90+ 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Never Married 11.5% 11.4% -0.1% -6,328
Married 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% 28,476
Divorced 5.4% 5.5% 0.1% 11,768
Widowed 3.2% 3.2% 0.1% 8,575
Education
Graduate 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% -2,062
Bachelor 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 6,371
Associate 2.4% 2.5% 0.0% 7,711
High School 4.2% 4.3% 0.1% 25,115
Less than 12 Yrs 9.8% 9.9% 0.1% 5,356
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$51,630 - $92,568 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$32,444 - $51,630 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$19,359 - $32,444 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 16,332
$0-$19,359 15.8% 15.9% 0.2% 26,159
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$88,261 - $156,005 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$53,741 - $88,261 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$29,648 - $53,741 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 10,162
$0-$29,648 15.8% 16.0% 0.2% 32,329
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$63,084 - $85,700 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 9,703
$46,412 - $63,084 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2,393
$29,733 - $46,412 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 37,035
$0-$29,733 15.3% 15.2% 0.0% -6,640
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 10,410
Spousal & Worker 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% 2,742
Spousal Only 7.3% 7.5% 0.2% 2,609
Survivor & Worker 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% 10,617
Survivor Only 9.0% 9.4% 0.4% 5,614
Retired Disabled 6.0% 6.1% 0.0% 2,939
Disabled Worker 7.0% 7.1% 0.2% 7,557
Claiming Age
62 or younger 4.7% 4.8% 0.1% 37,623
63–66 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 4,148
67 or older 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 720
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2,241
161–200 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 14,219
81–160 3.0% 3.1% 0.0% 10,545
0–80 13.9% 14.1% 0.2% 15,485
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$4,819 - $7,147 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3,463
$3,235 - $4,819 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 8,633
$1,780 - $3,235 2.8% 2.9% 0.1% 9,363
$0-$1,780 12.8% 13.0% 0.1% 21,030
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5,670
$6,129 - $8,406 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3,860
$4,412 - $6,129 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4,421
$2,836 - $4,412 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 18,729
$0-$2,836 15.1% 15.2% 0.1% 9,809
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$2,211 - $3,023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4,035
$1,683 - $2,211 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 20,508
$1,193 - $1,683 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 20,514
$0-$1,193 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% -2,566
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$81,240 - $116,762 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 194
$52,849 - $81,240 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 845
$1 - $52,849 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 13,385
$0.00 9.7% 9.8% 0.1% 28,065
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 04/16/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 4. Median Monthly Scheduled Benefit, 2030
Characteristic Wage-Adjusted (2012 $) Inflation-Adjusted (2012 $) Nominal
(2030 $)
Total $1,105 $1,422 $2,244
Sex
Female $994 $1,280 $2,019
Male $1,233 $1,587 $2,504
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic $887 $1,141 $1,801
White $1,167 $1,502 $2,370
Black $966 $1,243 $1,961
Other $980 $1,261 $1,990
Immigration
Immigrant $881 $1,134 $1,790
Native Born $1,142 $1,470 $2,321
Age
60–69 $1,011 $1,301 $2,053
70–79 $1,138 $1,464 $2,311
80–89 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
90+ $1,139 $1,466 $2,313
Marital Status
Never Married $975 $1,255 $1,981
Married $1,066 $1,372 $2,166
Divorced $1,101 $1,418 $2,237
Widowed $1,224 $1,575 $2,486
Education
Graduate $1,445 $1,860 $2,935
Bachelor $1,289 $1,660 $2,619
Associate $1,102 $1,418 $2,238
High School $1,015 $1,306 $2,062
Less than 12 Yrs $792 $1,020 $1,609
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ $1,479 $1,904 $3,004
$51,630 - $92,568 $1,324 $1,704 $2,689
$32,444 - $51,630 $1,180 $1,518 $2,396
$19,359 - $32,444 $1,065 $1,370 $2,163
$0-$19,359 $696 $896 $1,414
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ $1,384 $1,782 $2,812
$88,261 - $156,005 $1,261 $1,623 $2,561
$53,741 - $88,261 $1,174 $1,511 $2,385
$29,648 - $53,741 $1,060 $1,364 $2,153
$0-$29,648 $809 $1,042 $1,644
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ $1,599 $2,058 $3,248
$63,084 - $85,700 $1,333 $1,715 $2,707
$46,412 - $63,084 $1,146 $1,475 $2,327
$29,733 - $46,412 $953 $1,227 $1,936
$0-$29,733 $666 $857 $1,352
Benefit Type
Retired Worker $1,136 $1,462 $2,307
Spousal & Worker $710 $914 $1,442
Spousal Only $498 $641 $1,012
Survivor & Worker $1,277 $1,643 $2,593
Survivor Only $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Retired Disabled $1,093 $1,406 $2,219
Disabled Worker $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Claiming Age
62 or younger $971 $1,250 $1,972
63–66 $1,268 $1,632 $2,576
67 or older $1,419 $1,827 $2,883
Quarters of Coverage
201+ $1,512 $1,946 $3,071
161–200 $1,242 $1,598 $2,522
81–160 $926 $1,192 $1,881
0–80 $653 $840 $1,326
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ $1,659 $2,135 $3,369
$4,819 - $7,147 $1,321 $1,700 $2,683
$3,235 - $4,819 $1,027 $1,322 $2,085
$1,780 - $3,235 $804 $1,035 $1,633
$0-$1,780 $616 $793 $1,252
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$6,129 - $8,406 $1,393 $1,793 $2,829
$4,412 - $6,129 $1,180 $1,518 $2,396
$2,836 - $4,412 $916 $1,180 $1,861
$0-$2,836 $609 $784 $1,237
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ $1,456 $1,874 $2,958
$2,211 - $3,023 $1,223 $1,574 $2,484
$1,683 - $2,211 $1,398 $1,799 $2,839
$1,193 - $1,683 $1,083 $1,394 $2,200
$0-$1,193 $669 $861 $1,359
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ $1,401 $1,804 $2,846
$81,240 - $116,762 $1,247 $1,605 $2,533
$52,849 - $81,240 $1,176 $1,513 $2,388
$1 - $52,849 $1,005 $1,294 $2,042
$0.00 $927 $1,194 $1,884
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 04/16/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.