Current Law Projections

  1. Early
    Eligibility Age
    Beneficiaries

  2. Oldest
    Old
  3. Scheduled
    vs. Payable
    Benefits
  4. Special
    Minimum
    Benefit
  5. Spousal-
    Only
    Beneficiaries
  6. Survivor-
    Only
    Beneficiaries
  7. Women
    & Dual
    Entitlement
  8. Why Will Poverty
    Decline for
    Beneficiaries?

Chart Descriptions - Scheduled vs. Payable Benefits

Released: April 2012
Next expected update: Spring 2014

All projections are for beneficiaries aged 60 or older.

Average (Median) Monthly Benefit, 2030–2070
(in 2012 dollars, actuarial estimates)
Year Scheduled benefits Payable benefits
2030 1,420 1,420
2050 1,706 1,334
2070 2,062 1,584
SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 6 (MINT6) microsimulation model using 2011 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.
Difference Between Scheduled and Payable Benefits, 2012–2080
Year Difference (percent)
2012 0
2013 0
2014 0
2015 0
2016 0
2017 0
2018 0
2019 0
2020 0
2021 0
2022 0
2023 0
2024 0
2025 0
2026 0
2027 0
2028 0
2029 0
2030 0
2031 0
2032 0
2033 0
2034 0
2035 0
2036 -19.7
2037 -23.5
2038 -23.4
2039 -23.2
2040 -23.1
2041 -22.9
2042 -22.7
2043 -22.5
2044 -22.4
2045 -22.3
2046 -22.1
2047 -22.0
2048 -21.9
2049 -21.8
2050 -21.8
2051 -21.7
2052 -21.7
2053 -21.8
2054 -21.8
2055 -21.9
2056 -22.0
2057 -22.1
2058 -22.2
2059 -22.2
2060 -22.3
2061 -22.3
2062 -22.4
2063 -22.4
2064 -22.5
2065 -22.6
2066 -22.7
2067 -22.8
2068 -22.9
2069 -23.0
2070 -23.2
2071 -23.3
2072 -23.4
2073 -23.6
2074 -23.8
2075 -23.9
2076 -24.1
2077 -24.2
2078 -24.4
2079 -24.6
2080 -24.7
SOURCE: Assumptions from the 2011 Trustees Report.
Poverty Rate, 2012–2080 (percent)
Year Scheduled benefits Payable benefits
2012 4.6 4.6
2013 4.5 4.5
2014 4.4 4.4
2015 4.3 4.3
2016 4.2 4.2
2017 3.8 3.8
2018 3.9 3.9
2019 3.8 3.8
2020 3.9 3.9
2021 3.8 3.8
2022 3.7 3.7
2023 3.7 3.7
2024 3.5 3.5
2025 3.5 3.5
2026 3.5 3.5
2027 3.4 3.4
2028 3.3 3.3
2029 3.3 3.3
2030 3.1 3.1
2031 3.1 3.1
2032 3.0 3.0
2033 2.9 2.9
2034 2.8 2.8
2035 2.8 2.8
2036 2.7 4.4
2037 2.7 4.7
2038 2.6 4.8
2039 2.5 4.6
2040 2.5 4.5
2041 2.5 4.4
2042 2.4 4.3
2043 2.4 4.1
2044 2.3 4.1
2045 2.1 3.9
2046 2.1 3.8
2047 2.0 3.6
2048 1.9 3.5
2049 1.9 3.5
2050 1.9 3.5
2051 1.8 3.2
2052 1.8 3.2
2053 1.8 3.2
2054 1.7 3.2
2055 1.8 3.1
2056 1.7 3.0
2057 1.7 2.9
2058 1.6 2.8
2059 1.5 2.8
2060 1.4 2.7
2061 1.4 2.7
2062 1.4 2.7
2063 1.3 2.5
2064 1.3 2.4
2065 1.3 2.4
2066 1.2 2.3
2067 1.2 2.4
2068 1.2 2.3
2069 1.1 2.2
2070 1.2 2.3
2071 1.1 2.2
2072 1.1 2.2
2073 1.0 2.1
2074 1.0 2.0
2075 1.0 2.0
2076 1.0 2.0
2077 1.0 1.9
2078 0.9 1.9
2079 0.9 1.8
2080 0.8 1.7
SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 6 (MINT6) microsimulation model using 2011 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.