Disability Insurance program: worker experience

SOCIAL SECURITY
DISABILITY INSURANCE PROGRAM
WORKER EXPERIENCE

ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 114

by Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.

Termination Study by Select Age and Duration

Table 8A.--DI Male Disabled Worker Probability of Recovery

(1991-1995 Social Security disability experience)

Select age	Duration of disability											Attained age
Select age	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10+	Attained age
20	0.009553	0.015415	0.012717	0.024228	0.049460	0.051673	0.042813	0.033578	0.026503	0.021240	0.019564	30
21	0.009929	0.015681	0.012502	0.022730	0.045963	0.047551	0.038719	0.030601	0.023624	0.019049	0.016099	31
22	0.010193	0.016006	0.012332	0.021366	0.042523	0.043568	0.034949	0.027628	0.020863	0.016961	0.012903	32
23	0.010238	0.016486	0.012225	0.020184	0.039404	0.039793	0.031752	0.024887	0.018558	0.015099	0.010455	33
24	0.010061	0.017097	0.012321	0.019050	0.036607	0.036243	0.029194	0.022694	0.016845	0.013673	0.008810	34

25	0.009942	0.017739	0.012511	0.018076	0.033920	0.033008	0.026916	0.021029	0.015789	0.012532	0.007663	35
26	0.009892	0.018347	0.012562	0.017043	0.031107	0.030213	0.024867	0.019809	0.015073	0.011679	0.006774	36
27	0.009754	0.018810	0.012340	0.015820	0.028363	0.027812	0.022960	0.018778	0.014521	0.010992	0.005947	37
28	0.009682	0.019319	0.012168	0.014684	0.025814	0.025592	0.021460	0.017804	0.013814	0.010427	0.005330	38
29	0.009772	0.019916	0.012073	0.013711	0.023704	0.023392	0.020235	0.016849	0.012992	0.009938	0.004840	39

30	0.009897	0.020344	0.012141	0.012974	0.022109	0.021621	0.019021	0.015827	0.012181	0.009383	0.004388	40
31	0.010196	0.020776	0.012169	0.012458	0.020815	0.020304	0.017617	0.014691	0.011458	0.008811	0.004061	41
32	0.010543	0.020968	0.012027	0.011852	0.019789	0.019211	0.016270	0.013370	0.010841	0.008217	0.003528	42
33	0.010591	0.020675	0.011808	0.011202	0.018681	0.018250	0.014983	0.012170	0.010036	0.007624	0.003073	43
34	0.010377	0.020295	0.011542	0.010634	0.017445	0.017176	0.014049	0.011188	0.009222	0.006998	0.002798	44

35	0.009947	0.019832	0.011129	0.010023	0.016378	0.016043	0.013271	0.010211	0.008413	0.006363	0.002677	45
36	0.009494	0.019337	0.010583	0.009578	0.015244	0.014740	0.012347	0.009308	0.007710	0.005879	0.002677	46
37	0.009200	0.018621	0.009913	0.009159	0.014102	0.013521	0.011120	0.008397	0.007121	0.005482	0.002464	47
38	0.008984	0.017853	0.009195	0.008530	0.012875	0.012354	0.009844	0.007675	0.006494	0.004926	0.002218	48
39	0.008660	0.017239	0.008829	0.007742	0.011906	0.011231	0.008796	0.007057	0.005853	0.004192	0.001984	49

40	0.008192	0.016548	0.008515	0.006946	0.011069	0.010271	0.007911	0.006486	0.005246	0.003571	0.001796	50
41	0.007697	0.015583	0.008040	0.006341	0.010142	0.009274	0.007173	0.005818	0.004676	0.003119	0.001614	51
42	0.007226	0.014531	0.007505	0.005913	0.009290	0.008184	0.006413	0.005096	0.004178	0.002879	0.001501	52
43	0.006795	0.013715	0.007009	0.005608	0.008427	0.007186	0.005683	0.004541	0.003649	0.002696	0.001376	53
44	0.006522	0.013021	0.006473	0.005278	0.007550	0.006352	0.004959	0.004055	0.003096	0.002509	0.001281	54

45	0.006303	0.012362	0.005849	0.004749	0.006893	0.005678	0.004326	0.003576	0.002592	0.002343	0.000990	55
46	0.006080	0.011615	0.005168	0.004102	0.006379	0.005150	0.003880	0.003068	0.002181	0.002187	0.000855	56
47	0.005640	0.010450	0.004506	0.003512	0.005895	0.004584	0.003529	0.002561	0.001892	0.001954	0.000778	57
48	0.004955	0.008821	0.003941	0.003050	0.005403	0.004002	0.003187	0.002129	0.001678	0.001625	0.000695	58
49	0.004134	0.007335	0.003455	0.002678	0.004940	0.003515	0.002767	0.001797	0.001513	0.001309	0.000603	59

50	0.003446	0.006164	0.002984	0.002314	0.004425	0.003190	0.002311	0.001584	0.001314	0.001025	0.000541	60
51	0.003108	0.005264	0.002512	0.001973	0.004033	0.002892	0.001919	0.001382	0.001107	0.000782	0.000453	61
52	0.002751	0.004456	0.002001	0.001692	0.003735	0.002594	0.001589	0.001147	0.000905	0.000590	0.000331	62
53	0.002270	0.003548	0.001565	0.001505	0.003406	0.002243	0.001404	0.000912	0.000687	0.000429	0.000181	63
54	0.001703	0.002684	0.001217	0.001387	0.003026	0.001832	0.001224	0.000741	0.000476	0.000287	0.000102	64

55	0.001244	0.002030	0.000932	0.001301	0.002698	0.001493	0.000937	0.000599	0.000297	0.000194	--	65
56	0.001071	0.001681	0.000769	0.001163	0.002273	0.001189	0.000630	0.000426	0.000167	--	--	66
57	0.001002	0.001441	0.000665	0.001017	0.001789	0.000913	0.000366	0.000271	--	--	--	67
58	0.000870	0.001220	0.000547	0.000797	0.001251	0.000676	0.000197	--	--	--	--	68
59	0.000692	0.000937	0.000425	0.000567	0.000767	0.000457	--	--	--	--	--	69

60	0.000600	0.000681	0.000296	0.000352	0.000444	--	--	--	--	--	--	70
61	0.000501	0.000459	0.000212	0.000176	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	71
62	0.000424	0.000335	0.000165	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	72
63	0.000401	0.000320	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	73
64	0.000431	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	74

Notes:
(1) Probability of recovery

in a multiple-decrement environment. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement.
(2) The quantity at duration t represents the probability of recovery during the ( t +1) year of entitlement for those lives originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [ x ] and who are currently attained age [ x ]+ t.
(3) Probabilities are read across the row for durations 0-10, and down the ultimate column ("10+") for durations greater than 10.
(4) The probabilities shown have been graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson Type B two-dimensional graduation methodology. See the appendix for details.

Table 8B.--DI Female Disabled Worker Probability of Recovery

(1991-1995 Social Security disability experience)

Select age	Duration of disability											Attained age
Select age	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10+	Attained age
20	0.005521	0.010081	0.011060	0.021152	0.043538	0.046272	0.037780	0.030964	0.022729	0.018703	0.013677	30
21	0.005546	0.010781	0.011118	0.020247	0.040018	0.041727	0.034266	0.028051	0.021086	0.016961	0.012070	31
22	0.005613	0.011392	0.011158	0.019441	0.036788	0.037376	0.030968	0.025350	0.019358	0.015285	0.010591	32
23	0.005736	0.011974	0.011134	0.018533	0.033974	0.033428	0.027923	0.023147	0.017720	0.013908	0.009348	33
24	0.005852	0.012390	0.010845	0.017557	0.031404	0.030092	0.025403	0.021370	0.016344	0.012924	0.008323	34

25	0.006005	0.012669	0.010424	0.016286	0.028956	0.027431	0.023239	0.020009	0.015379	0.012226	0.007532	35
26	0.006214	0.012778	0.009902	0.015017	0.026714	0.025307	0.021395	0.018741	0.014850	0.011658	0.006961	36
27	0.006388	0.012944	0.009583	0.013867	0.024688	0.023568	0.019975	0.017550	0.014485	0.011176	0.006549	37
28	0.006491	0.013324	0.009459	0.012905	0.022814	0.022153	0.018853	0.016614	0.014180	0.010727	0.006196	38
29	0.006501	0.013627	0.009446	0.012134	0.021136	0.020900	0.017867	0.015939	0.013849	0.010387	0.005997	39

30	0.006456	0.013836	0.009458	0.011536	0.019619	0.019841	0.016812	0.015538	0.013381	0.010133	0.005830	40
31	0.006425	0.013755	0.009413	0.011030	0.018262	0.018946	0.015871	0.015321	0.012772	0.009889	0.005481	41
32	0.006359	0.013577	0.009249	0.010425	0.017106	0.018250	0.015354	0.014907	0.012171	0.009610	0.005067	42
33	0.006277	0.013381	0.009080	0.009818	0.016111	0.017720	0.015024	0.014401	0.011753	0.009300	0.004707	43
34	0.006207	0.013157	0.008866	0.009334	0.015145	0.017209	0.014691	0.013629	0.011377	0.008970	0.004468	44

35	0.006347	0.013169	0.008719	0.008873	0.014425	0.016501	0.014219	0.012705	0.010853	0.008677	0.004222	45
36	0.006318	0.013219	0.008531	0.008409	0.013952	0.015719	0.013544	0.011804	0.009919	0.008390	0.004013	46
37	0.006064	0.013094	0.008375	0.007954	0.013654	0.014762	0.012605	0.010962	0.008863	0.007961	0.003748	47
38	0.005926	0.012805	0.008140	0.007566	0.013176	0.013788	0.011711	0.010111	0.007917	0.007330	0.003484	48
39	0.005885	0.012492	0.007757	0.007046	0.012468	0.012785	0.010885	0.009227	0.007168	0.006529	0.003138	49

40	0.005840	0.012113	0.007349	0.006524	0.011635	0.011755	0.010121	0.008421	0.006464	0.005720	0.002795	50
41	0.005759	0.011615	0.006847	0.006148	0.010988	0.010661	0.009407	0.007629	0.005855	0.004980	0.002460	51
42	0.005581	0.010974	0.006267	0.005847	0.010351	0.009584	0.008659	0.006875	0.005289	0.004419	0.002170	52
43	0.005386	0.010367	0.005699	0.005554	0.009644	0.008545	0.007728	0.006103	0.004733	0.003990	0.001875	53
44	0.005141	0.009704	0.005243	0.005153	0.008842	0.007641	0.006670	0.005320	0.004217	0.003592	0.001636	54

45	0.004774	0.009021	0.005002	0.004663	0.008028	0.006858	0.005701	0.004575	0.003703	0.003196	0.001435	55
46	0.004324	0.008354	0.004565	0.004299	0.007160	0.006204	0.004781	0.003885	0.003174	0.002749	0.001270	56
47	0.003801	0.007577	0.003967	0.003917	0.006318	0.005571	0.003979	0.003329	0.002675	0.002328	0.001053	57
48	0.003297	0.006668	0.003407	0.003519	0.005479	0.004957	0.003405	0.002840	0.002249	0.001901	0.000851	58
49	0.002833	0.005684	0.002992	0.003099	0.004766	0.004293	0.002991	0.002355	0.001906	0.001488	0.000705	59

50	0.002475	0.004844	0.002690	0.002641	0.004222	0.003779	0.002636	0.001902	0.001579	0.001151	0.000627	60
51	0.002275	0.004141	0.002385	0.002238	0.003938	0.003389	0.002260	0.001474	0.001294	0.000857	0.000513	61
52	0.002026	0.003554	0.001968	0.001899	0.003776	0.003049	0.001892	0.001169	0.001025	0.000624	0.000298	62
53	0.001722	0.002923	0.001546	0.001699	0.003576	0.002612	0.001576	0.000963	0.000753	0.000424	0.000156	63
54	0.001382	0.002273	0.001207	0.001522	0.003193	0.002112	0.001260	0.000787	0.000513	0.000300	0.000079	64

55	0.001182	0.001768	0.000942	0.001272	0.002631	0.001650	0.000942	0.000608	0.000330	0.000231	--	65
56	0.001129	0.001471	0.000712	0.001024	0.002140	0.001274	0.000660	0.000441	0.000208	--	--	66
57	0.001139	0.001286	0.000512	0.000801	0.001740	0.000905	0.000448	0.000306	--	--	--	67
58	0.001076	0.001117	0.000377	0.000610	0.001285	0.000603	0.000295	--	--	--	--	68
59	0.000882	0.000925	0.000275	0.000449	0.000847	0.000379	--	--	--	--	--	69

60	0.000675	0.000679	0.000192	0.000310	0.000457	--	--	--	--	--	--	70
61	0.000542	0.000456	0.000130	0.000189	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	71
62	0.000493	0.000332	0.000101	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	72
63	0.000507	0.000253	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	73
64	0.000548	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	74

Notes:
(1) Probability of recovery

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July 30, 1999