Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

A. NUMBER OF DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) BENEFICIARIES

Table III.A12—DI Disabled Worker Termination Rates Due to Recovery
(Recoveries per thousand beneficiaries, by age and gender, calendar years 1975-2010)
Year
  15-19
  20-24
  25-29
  30-34
  35-39
  40-44
  45-49
  50-54
  55-59
  60-64
  65-NRA 1
  Total
Male
1975
13.30
94.78
72.23
56.65
45.01
30.98
21.76
10.95
5.96
2.78
1.15
14.67
1980
13.02
51.12
59.80
58.65
69.83
69.52
57.29
39.10
23.77
6.39
1.84
30.29
1985
8.81
30.01
31.72
23.45
15.45
12.85
10.03
7.34
4.75
3.68
1.86
8.38
1990
11.35
24.84
29.55
23.38
18.33
13.43
11.31
8.16
5.54
5.35
2.03
10.26
1991
33.47
18.81
21.91
18.52
14.40
10.72
8.81
6.73
5.17
5.09
1.71
8.55
1992
4.66
21.66
23.44
19.08
14.40
11.31
9.31
7.02
5.12
5.46
1.28
8.98
1993
17.98
21.15
20.63
18.11
13.80
10.81
8.34
6.54
4.50
4.63
1.40
8.33
1994
26.39
26.00
24.94
22.71
17.25
12.75
10.04
7.07
4.48
4.08
1.10
9.53
1995
7.66
36.72
35.61
29.55
22.38
17.34
11.54
7.92
4.84
4.08
1.49
11.71
1996
24.34
39.06
38.09
31.76
24.39
17.82
12.16
7.74
4.32
3.85
1.49
11.92
1997
33.79
49.52
60.77
58.25
55.05
49.19
38.01
21.61
9.91
5.92
5.76
27.30
1998
26.05
35.02
40.64
30.42
23.35
17.23
12.20
6.76
3.16
3.02
2.30
10.65
1999
3.94
33.57
43.56
34.58
24.96
19.00
13.94
8.28
5.05
3.73
2.80
12.01
2000
21.22
30.61
49.75
43.29
32.98
23.39
16.47
9.83
5.15
3.86
3.35
14.07
2001
16.66
24.14
38.88
33.97
25.82
18.34
12.92
7.69
4.05
3.03
2.63
10.78
2002
15.29
22.20
35.53
31.06
23.63
16.78
11.83
7.06
3.73
2.78
2.41
9.66
2003
13.74
20.13
31.88
27.86
21.25
15.08
10.63
6.36
3.37
2.50
2.13
8.46
2004
13.79
20.30
31.96
27.94
21.36
15.12
10.66
6.39
3.37
2.51
2.07
8.27
2005
13.50
19.93
31.25
27.44
20.95
14.78
10.42
6.25
3.27
2.45
1.98
7.88
2006
13.26
19.60
30.73
27.07
20.60
14.49
10.23
6.14
3.20
2.38
1.91
7.55
2007
12.89
19.05
29.93
26.42
20.00
14.07
9.95
5.97
3.13
2.32
1.82
7.16
2008
12.90
19.07
29.98
26.48
19.96
14.09
9.94
5.96
3.13
2.36
1.81
7.03
2009
12.76
18.84
29.67
26.22
19.71
13.97
9.82
5.89
3.10
2.34
2.03
6.88
2010
12.67
18.65
29.45
26.03
19.60
13.89
9.72
5.83
3.07
2.27
2.00
6.72
Female
1975
14.02
42.92
45.47
30.60
24.30
22.59
19.72
15.07
8.97
5.72
.67
12.26
1980
22.73
41.90
46.99
50.03
62.15
63.20
56.90
31.83
19.89
4.75
1.10
24.67
1985
.00
36.15
38.21
26.66
18.27
15.76
12.63
8.17
4.96
3.77
1.17
9.04
1990
55.01
23.61
28.19
19.76
15.73
14.08
11.30
8.05
5.29
4.11
1.30
9.14
1991
50.00
16.95
18.91
16.27
12.61
11.05
9.41
6.29
4.63
4.32
.90
7.69
1992
8.19
17.41
19.27
15.89
13.42
11.77
9.83
6.61
4.57
3.95
.87
7.91
1993
2.78
16.50
17.71
15.29
11.93
10.56
8.59
6.16
3.92
3.47
.99
7.23
1994
9.45
20.10
21.28
18.41
14.14
12.40
10.01
6.29
3.92
2.84
.55
8.04
1995
22.15
33.00
32.01
24.84
18.93
16.22
11.78
7.84
4.10
2.83
.95
10.18
1996
25.20
36.70
33.05
26.64
20.66
16.08
12.31
7.72
3.91
2.62
1.21
10.35
1997
24.26
44.20
42.68
39.88
34.56
27.53
20.66
11.57
5.42
3.18
3.37
15.82
1998
10.79
40.48
34.05
27.44
21.26
18.24
14.19
8.75
4.23
2.58
2.37
10.87
1999
3.36
32.95
36.28
26.31
22.10
17.49
14.33
8.97
4.90
3.21
1.86
10.96
2000
11.49
28.05
39.17
34.73
26.14
20.61
16.19
10.42
5.71
3.24
2.35
12.55
2001
8.87
21.43
29.93
26.57
19.94
15.75
12.37
7.96
4.37
2.48
1.80
9.43
2002
7.89
19.13
26.65
23.63
17.71
14.02
11.02
7.11
3.92
2.21
1.60
8.25
2003
6.91
16.83
23.39
20.67
15.54
12.30
9.66
6.25
3.44
1.95
1.38
7.08
2004
6.79
16.60
23.02
20.32
15.34
12.10
9.51
6.16
3.37
1.91
1.32
6.81
2005
6.53
15.96
22.12
19.55
14.77
11.61
9.13
5.90
3.22
1.82
1.24
6.39
2006
6.34
15.53
21.53
19.09
14.39
11.29
8.88
5.74
3.13
1.76
1.18
6.08
2007
6.05
14.84
20.59
18.28
13.73
10.78
8.48
5.49
3.00
1.69
1.10
5.67
2008
5.98
14.69
20.38
18.10
13.54
10.66
8.39
5.42
2.97
1.70
1.08
5.50
2009
5.85
14.36
19.92
17.70
13.21
10.44
8.20
5.29
2.90
1.66
1.20
5.31
2010
5.76
14.07
19.52
17.36
12.97
10.25
8.03
5.18
2.85
1.60
1.17
5.13
Total
1975
13.45
82.75
65.83
49.72
39.54
28.71
21.16
12.24
6.95
3.72
1.01
13.93
1980
15.70
48.71
56.10
56.20
67.58
67.66
57.17
36.75
22.47
5.84
1.59
28.47
1985
6.53
31.75
33.59
24.43
16.31
13.76
10.85
7.61
4.82
3.71
1.63
8.60
1990
25.54
24.45
29.13
22.24
17.47
13.65
11.30
8.12
5.45
4.92
1.77
9.88
1991
38.81
18.20
20.95
17.79
13.80
10.83
9.02
6.57
4.98
4.82
1.43
8.25
1992
5.94
20.23
22.07
18.03
14.07
11.47
9.50
6.87
4.92
4.92
1.14
8.61
1993
12.66
19.52
19.64
17.16
13.16
10.72
8.43
6.39
4.28
4.22
1.25
7.93
1994
20.32
23.90
23.67
21.23
16.16
12.62
10.03
6.77
4.26
3.63
.90
8.98
1995
13.12
35.36
34.31
27.87
21.14
16.92
11.63
7.89
4.55
3.62
1.29
11.13
1996
24.68
38.18
36.22
29.88
23.00
17.15
12.22
7.73
4.15
3.38
1.39
11.31
1997
30.18
47.51
53.88
51.23
47.21
40.68
31.04
17.44
8.06
4.85
4.86
22.73
1998
20.59
37.12
38.04
29.24
22.52
17.64
13.03
7.60
3.62
2.85
2.33
10.74
1999
3.72
33.32
40.61
31.24
23.79
18.38
14.10
8.58
4.99
3.52
2.43
11.57
2000
17.52
29.59
45.38
39.74
30.13
22.22
16.35
10.09
5.39
3.60
2.95
13.42
2001
13.65
23.06
35.11
30.81
23.31
17.23
12.68
7.81
4.19
2.79
2.29
10.20
2002
12.43
20.97
31.74
27.82
21.06
15.59
11.47
7.08
3.82
2.53
2.07
9.04
2003
11.12
18.81
28.25
24.67
18.73
13.85
10.20
6.31
3.40
2.26
1.81
7.85
2004
11.11
18.83
28.13
24.51
18.67
13.77
10.14
6.28
3.37
2.25
1.75
7.62
2005
10.84
18.36
27.35
23.85
18.15
13.35
9.84
6.09
3.25
2.17
1.66
7.21
2006
10.62
17.99
26.81
23.41
17.73
13.03
9.61
5.95
3.17
2.10
1.59
6.88
2007
10.29
17.39
25.95
22.67
17.07
12.55
9.27
5.74
3.07
2.04
1.50
6.48
2008
10.28
17.34
25.91
22.62
16.93
12.49
9.22
5.71
3.06
2.06
1.49
6.32
2009
10.15
17.08
25.54
22.29
16.61
12.31
9.06
5.61
3.01
2.03
1.66
6.16
2010
10.07
16.85
25.25
22.04
16.42
12.16
8.92
5.53
2.96
1.97
1.63
5.98

1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age."

Sources:

Historical rates computed as the ratio of (a) age-specific recovery terminations, to (b) exposure of disabled worker in force population.

Future rates projected by historical trend and judgment.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.


Contents Glossary


List of Studies
December 26, 2001