Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001 
                    Actuarial Study No. 115 
                    Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.  | 
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|   Year  | 
     
   65-NRA1
 
 | 
    |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|   Male  | 
  ||||||||||||
|   0.1  | 
      0.7  | 
      1.4  | 
      1.6  | 
      2.3  | 
      4.3  | 
      8.3  | 
      16.0  | 
      26.3  | 
      41.1  | 
      3.7  | 
      105.8  | 
  |
|   .1  | 
      .7  | 
      1.4  | 
      1.9  | 
      2.6  | 
      4.0  | 
      7.4  | 
      14.7  | 
      27.4  | 
      40.9  | 
      4.1  | 
      105.1  | 
  |
|   .5  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.3  | 
      3.2  | 
      4.4  | 
      6.9  | 
      12.4  | 
      24.0  | 
      39.9  | 
      4.8  | 
      99.6  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.3  | 
      4.6  | 
      6.2  | 
      7.1  | 
      8.4  | 
      12.2  | 
      21.0  | 
      35.1  | 
      4.4  | 
      101.8  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.5  | 
      5.2  | 
      7.3  | 
      8.4  | 
      9.5  | 
      12.9  | 
      21.0  | 
      35.0  | 
      4.3  | 
      106.6  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.6  | 
      5.9  | 
      8.0  | 
      9.2  | 
      10.4  | 
      13.7  | 
      21.3  | 
      34.2  | 
      4.8  | 
      110.5  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.6  | 
      6.6  | 
      9.2  | 
      10.3  | 
      11.4  | 
      14.9  | 
      22.4  | 
      34.5  | 
      4.7  | 
      117.1  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.5  | 
      7.2  | 
      9.7  | 
      11.3  | 
      12.4  | 
      15.8  | 
      22.4  | 
      34.0  | 
      4.4  | 
      120.2  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      2.3  | 
      6.9  | 
      10.1  | 
      11.7  | 
      13.2  | 
      16.0  | 
      22.4  | 
      33.3  | 
      4.4  | 
      120.7  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      1.8  | 
      5.2  | 
      8.3  | 
      10.3  | 
      12.9  | 
      15.7  | 
      22.2  | 
      33.7  | 
      4.2  | 
      114.7  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      1.3  | 
      3.2  | 
      5.7  | 
      8.3  | 
      11.3  | 
      15.5  | 
      22.5  | 
      32.3  | 
      4.3  | 
      104.6  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      1.1  | 
      2.6  | 
      5.1  | 
      8.1  | 
      11.6  | 
      15.9  | 
      23.5  | 
      33.1  | 
      4.0  | 
      105.4  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      1.0  | 
      2.4  | 
      4.9  | 
      8.1  | 
      12.0  | 
      16.9  | 
      24.2  | 
      33.3  | 
      4.2  | 
      107.3  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      .9  | 
      2.2  | 
      4.7  | 
      8.2  | 
      12.4  | 
      17.9  | 
      24.6  | 
      32.9  | 
      4.1  | 
      108.2  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      .8  | 
      2.0  | 
      4.4  | 
      8.1  | 
      12.6  | 
      18.3  | 
      25.5  | 
      33.7  | 
      4.0  | 
      109.9  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      .9  | 
      2.0  | 
      4.2  | 
      8.1  | 
      13.0  | 
      18.6  | 
      26.9  | 
      35.4  | 
      4.1  | 
      113.5  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      .9  | 
      1.9  | 
      4.0  | 
      8.0  | 
      13.4  | 
      19.0  | 
      28.1  | 
      37.4  | 
      5.7  | 
      118.8  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      .9  | 
      1.8  | 
      3.9  | 
      7.9  | 
      13.6  | 
      19.6  | 
      29.7  | 
      39.2  | 
      7.2  | 
      124.3  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      1.0  | 
      1.8  | 
      3.8  | 
      7.8  | 
      13.8  | 
      20.2  | 
      31.5  | 
      40.9  | 
      8.9  | 
      130.0  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      1.0  | 
      1.7  | 
      3.7  | 
      7.5  | 
      13.9  | 
      20.8  | 
      32.6  | 
      43.2  | 
      10.9  | 
      135.8  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.7  | 
      3.6  | 
      7.3  | 
      13.9  | 
      21.5  | 
      33.0  | 
      45.8  | 
      13.5  | 
      141.7  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.8  | 
      3.5  | 
      7.0  | 
      13.8  | 
      22.0  | 
      33.7  | 
      47.7  | 
      15.9  | 
      147.1  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.8  | 
      3.4  | 
      6.8  | 
      13.7  | 
      22.3  | 
      34.6  | 
      50.3  | 
      17.6  | 
      152.2  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.9  | 
      3.3  | 
      6.6  | 
      13.4  | 
      22.6  | 
      35.7  | 
      53.2  | 
      17.4  | 
      155.7  | 
  ||
|   Female  | 
  ||||||||||||
|   .2  | 
      .5  | 
      .7  | 
      .8  | 
      1.6  | 
      3.1  | 
      5.7  | 
      8.8  | 
      11.7  | 
      1.0  | 
      34.1  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      .6  | 
      .9  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.7  | 
      3.0  | 
      5.6  | 
      9.7  | 
      13.2  | 
      1.6  | 
      37.7  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .5  | 
      .9  | 
      1.5  | 
      1.9  | 
      2.9  | 
      4.8  | 
      9.0  | 
      13.9  | 
      1.6  | 
      37.1  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .6  | 
      1.2  | 
      1.9  | 
      2.8  | 
      3.9  | 
      5.5  | 
      8.6  | 
      13.3  | 
      1.5  | 
      39.6  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .7  | 
      1.4  | 
      2.1  | 
      3.1  | 
      4.3  | 
      6.1  | 
      9.2  | 
      13.4  | 
      1.5  | 
      42.1  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      .7  | 
      1.5  | 
      2.4  | 
      3.5  | 
      4.6  | 
      6.5  | 
      9.1  | 
      13.6  | 
      1.7  | 
      43.9  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .8  | 
      1.5  | 
      2.6  | 
      3.7  | 
      5.2  | 
      7.1  | 
      9.9  | 
      14.1  | 
      1.7  | 
      46.8  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .8  | 
      1.8  | 
      2.8  | 
      4.1  | 
      5.7  | 
      7.7  | 
      10.5  | 
      14.2  | 
      1.8  | 
      49.4  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .8  | 
      1.8  | 
      3.0  | 
      4.3  | 
      6.0  | 
      7.9  | 
      10.9  | 
      14.5  | 
      1.7  | 
      51.2  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .8  | 
      1.7  | 
      2.9  | 
      4.3  | 
      6.3  | 
      8.4  | 
      11.3  | 
      14.9  | 
      1.7  | 
      52.5  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .7  | 
      1.4  | 
      2.7  | 
      4.3  | 
      6.2  | 
      8.9  | 
      12.0  | 
      15.2  | 
      1.7  | 
      53.3  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .6  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.7  | 
      4.4  | 
      6.5  | 
      9.4  | 
      12.7  | 
      15.9  | 
      1.7  | 
      55.4  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .6  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.6  | 
      4.5  | 
      6.9  | 
      10.1  | 
      13.4  | 
      16.6  | 
      1.9  | 
      58.2  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .6  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.6  | 
      4.8  | 
      7.2  | 
      10.8  | 
      14.1  | 
      17.3  | 
      1.9  | 
      60.8  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .6  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.6  | 
      4.9  | 
      7.5  | 
      11.3  | 
      15.0  | 
      18.3  | 
      2.0  | 
      63.7  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .6  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.6  | 
      5.1  | 
      7.9  | 
      11.8  | 
      16.3  | 
      19.9  | 
      2.1  | 
      67.7  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .6  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.5  | 
      5.2  | 
      8.3  | 
      12.4  | 
      17.3  | 
      21.6  | 
      3.0  | 
      72.5  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      .7  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.5  | 
      5.3  | 
      8.6  | 
      13.1  | 
      18.6  | 
      23.2  | 
      3.9  | 
      77.4  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      .7  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.5  | 
      5.3  | 
      8.9  | 
      13.8  | 
      20.1  | 
      24.5  | 
      4.9  | 
      82.2  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      .8  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.5  | 
      5.3  | 
      9.2  | 
      14.5  | 
      21.2  | 
      26.5  | 
      6.1  | 
      87.6  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      .8  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.5  | 
      5.2  | 
      9.3  | 
      15.0  | 
      21.7  | 
      28.3  | 
      7.7  | 
      92.0  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      .8  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.5  | 
      5.0  | 
      9.3  | 
      15.3  | 
      22.3  | 
      29.5  | 
      9.1  | 
      95.3  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      .8  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.5  | 
      4.9  | 
      9.3  | 
      15.6  | 
      23.0  | 
      31.3  | 
      10.1  | 
      99.1  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      .8  | 
      1.4  | 
      2.4  | 
      5.0  | 
      9.3  | 
      16.1  | 
      24.1  | 
      33.6  | 
      10.1  | 
      103.1  | 
  ||
|   Total  | 
  ||||||||||||
|   .1  | 
      .9  | 
      1.8  | 
      2.3  | 
      3.1  | 
      5.9  | 
      11.5  | 
      21.6  | 
      35.1  | 
      52.7  | 
      4.7  | 
      139.8  | 
  |
|   .1  | 
      1.0  | 
      1.9  | 
      2.8  | 
      3.7  | 
      5.7  | 
      10.4  | 
      20.3  | 
      37.1  | 
      54.1  | 
      5.7  | 
      142.8  | 
  |
|   .7  | 
      1.8  | 
      3.2  | 
      4.6  | 
      6.3  | 
      9.8  | 
      17.2  | 
      33.0  | 
      53.8  | 
      6.3  | 
      136.7  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      2.9  | 
      5.8  | 
      8.1  | 
      9.9  | 
      12.3  | 
      17.7  | 
      29.7  | 
      48.5  | 
      5.9  | 
      141.4  | 
  ||
|   .8  | 
      3.2  | 
      6.7  | 
      9.4  | 
      11.5  | 
      13.8  | 
      18.9  | 
      30.2  | 
      48.4  | 
      5.8  | 
      148.7  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.3  | 
      7.4  | 
      10.4  | 
      12.7  | 
      15.0  | 
      20.2  | 
      30.4  | 
      47.8  | 
      6.4  | 
      154.4  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.3  | 
      8.1  | 
      11.7  | 
      14.1  | 
      16.6  | 
      22.0  | 
      32.3  | 
      48.5  | 
      6.5  | 
      163.8  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.2  | 
      9.0  | 
      12.5  | 
      15.3  | 
      18.1  | 
      23.5  | 
      32.9  | 
      48.2  | 
      6.2  | 
      169.7  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.0  | 
      8.6  | 
      13.1  | 
      15.9  | 
      19.2  | 
      23.9  | 
      33.4  | 
      47.9  | 
      6.1  | 
      171.9  | 
  ||
|   .6  | 
      2.5  | 
      6.9  | 
      11.1  | 
      14.7  | 
      19.2  | 
      24.1  | 
      33.6  | 
      48.6  | 
      5.8  | 
      167.1  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      1.9  | 
      4.6  | 
      8.4  | 
      12.6  | 
      17.4  | 
      24.4  | 
      34.4  | 
      47.5  | 
      6.0  | 
      158.0  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      1.6  | 
      4.0  | 
      7.8  | 
      12.5  | 
      18.1  | 
      25.3  | 
      36.2  | 
      49.1  | 
      5.7  | 
      160.8  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      1.6  | 
      3.7  | 
      7.5  | 
      12.6  | 
      18.9  | 
      27.0  | 
      37.7  | 
      49.9  | 
      6.0  | 
      165.4  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      1.5  | 
      3.4  | 
      7.3  | 
      13.1  | 
      19.6  | 
      28.7  | 
      38.7  | 
      50.2  | 
      6.0  | 
      169.0  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      1.4  | 
      3.3  | 
      7.0  | 
      13.1  | 
      20.1  | 
      29.7  | 
      40.5  | 
      52.0  | 
      6.0  | 
      173.6  | 
  ||
|   .6  | 
      1.5  | 
      3.2  | 
      6.8  | 
      13.1  | 
      20.9  | 
      30.4  | 
      43.1  | 
      55.3  | 
      6.3  | 
      181.2  | 
  ||
|   .6  | 
      1.5  | 
      3.2  | 
      6.6  | 
      13.2  | 
      21.6  | 
      31.5  | 
      45.4  | 
      59.0  | 
      8.7  | 
      191.3  | 
  ||
|   .6  | 
      1.6  | 
      3.1  | 
      6.4  | 
      13.2  | 
      22.2  | 
      32.7  | 
      48.3  | 
      62.4  | 
      11.1  | 
      201.6  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      1.7  | 
      3.0  | 
      6.3  | 
      13.1  | 
      22.7  | 
      34.0  | 
      51.6  | 
      65.4  | 
      13.8  | 
      212.2  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      1.8  | 
      3.0  | 
      6.2  | 
      12.8  | 
      23.1  | 
      35.3  | 
      53.8  | 
      69.7  | 
      17.0  | 
      223.4  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      1.9  | 
      3.0  | 
      6.2  | 
      12.5  | 
      23.2  | 
      36.4  | 
      54.7  | 
      74.0  | 
      21.2  | 
      233.6  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      1.9  | 
      3.1  | 
      6.0  | 
      12.0  | 
      23.1  | 
      37.2  | 
      56.0  | 
      77.3  | 
      25.0  | 
      242.4  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      1.9  | 
      3.2  | 
      5.9  | 
      11.7  | 
      23.0  | 
      37.9  | 
      57.7  | 
      81.6  | 
      27.7  | 
      251.3  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      2.0  | 
      3.3  | 
      5.8  | 
      11.6  | 
      22.7  | 
      38.7  | 
      59.8  | 
      86.9  | 
      27.5  | 
      258.8  | 
  ||
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." 2 Fewer than 50.  | 
  
· Historical figures based on SSA administrative records.
· Projected terminations computed by applying projected death termination rates to exposure of disabled worker in force population.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
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List of Studies
December 26, 2001