Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

B. NUMBER OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) BENEFICIARIES

Table III.B16—Retired Workers With Benefits In Force
(End of calendar years 1975-2000 and calendar half years 2001-10)
[Numbers in thousands]
Calendar
period
Male
Female
62-64
65 or
older
Total
62-64
65 or
older
Total
Number
in force
Percent
of male
retired
workers
Number
in force
Percent of
calendar
year change occurring
in previous
6 months
Number
in force
Percent
of female
retired
workers
Number
in force
Percent of
calendar
year change
occurring
in previous
6 months
1975
874.1
9.10
8,733.4
9,607.5
45.18
889.1
11.78
6,660.6
7,549.7
52.85
1976
908.4
9.25
8,915.4
9,823.8
42.67
915.5
11.65
6,942.8
7,858.3
47.69
1977
956.0
9.47
9,142.7
10,098.7
48.14
959.8
11.69
7,253.6
8,213.4
52.08
1978
947.1
9.20
9,346.0
10,293.1
47.13
970.4
11.39
7,552.8
8,523.1
52.68
1979
965.6
9.14
9,603.4
10,569.0
46.02
997.7
11.25
7,874.8
8,872.5
48.04
1980
1,021.4
9.43
9,808.3
10,829.7
43.65
1,035.9
11.26
8,160.0
9,195.9
47.35
1981
1,088.6
9.81
10,011.4
11,100.0
40.43
1,058.4
11.12
8,459.7
9,518.1
48.31
1982
1,164.8
10.25
10,201.2
11,366.0
49.31
1,102.6
11.21
8,736.5
9,839.1
47.49
1983
1,229.8
10.56
10,415.5
11,645.2
58.95
1,134.5
11.17
9,023.6
10,158.1
31.05
1984
1,281.6
10.80
10,586.1
11,867.6
57.34
1,168.6
11.19
9,270.2
10,438.8
39.55
1985
1,311.5
10.82
10,804.5
12,116.0
58.10
1,186.0
11.06
9,537.5
10,723.5
37.61
1986
1,337.2
10.79
11,051.1
12,388.3
45.06
1,198.1
10.88
9,816.8
11,014.8
48.15
1987
1,363.4
10.80
11,261.2
12,624.6
42.25
1,216.1
10.79
10,060.1
11,276.3
45.91
1988
1,362.3
10.63
11,451.2
12,813.5
46.87
1,214.8
10.56
10,286.9
11,501.7
48.83
1989
1,356.4
10.41
11,673.3
13,029.7
46.93
1,197.3
10.20
10,535.3
11,732.6
49.46
1990
1,359.1
10.26
11,889.3
13,248.3
46.50
1,181.6
9.89
10,771.8
11,953.4
48.82
1991
1,369.2
10.16
12,110.0
13,479.2
42.63
1,165.6
9.58
10,999.8
12,165.3
45.23
1992
1,376.9
10.04
12,338.2
13,715.1
42.42
1,156.7
9.34
11,225.7
12,382.4
45.46
1993
1,371.7
9.88
12,518.6
13,890.2
39.40
1,144.5
9.12
11,411.3
12,555.8
44.17
1994
1,371.6
9.77
12,661.3
14,033.0
44.57
1,152.3
9.06
11,560.2
12,712.5
47.99
1995
1,341.9
9.47
12,821.9
14,163.8
34.86
1,141.1
8.87
11,719.9
12,860.9
40.96
1996
1,322.7
9.27
12,944.9
14,267.6
46.62
1,141.1
8.78
11,851.1
12,992.2
50.90
1997
1,301.6
9.06
13,057.4
14,359.0
45.25
1,143.8
8.63
12,109.8
13,253.6
74.66
1998
1,309.2
9.07
13,130.8
14,440.0
42.55
1,169.7
8.73
12,234.7
13,404.4
45.29
1999
1,324.1
9.10
13,232.0
14,556.2
55.10
1,193.6
8.81
12,355.2
13,548.8
50.98
2000
1,356.5
9.14
13,488.6
14,845.1
38.93
1,236.0
8.97
12,540.0
13,776.0
43.29
2001-II
1,363.3
9.15
13,537.4
14,900.6
55.47
1,267.8
9.15
12,593.4
13,861.1
54.68
2001-IV
1,390.1
9.30
13,555.0
14,945.2
44.53
1,275.7
9.16
12,656.0
13,931.7
45.32
2002-II
1,396.3
9.29
13,631.2
15,027.5
56.08
1,289.0
9.20
12,727.5
14,016.5
49.64
2002-IV
1,420.9
9.41
13,671.2
15,092.0
43.92
1,311.7
9.30
12,790.8
14,102.5
50.36
2003-II
1,428.3
9.41
13,748.2
15,176.5
54.53
1,319.7
9.29
12,878.8
14,198.5
53.31
2003-IV
1,457.9
9.56
13,789.0
15,246.9
45.47
1,351.8
9.46
12,930.7
14,282.5
46.69
2004-II
1,473.1
9.59
13,887.5
15,360.6
54.87
1,370.7
9.52
13,021.8
14,392.5
49.59
2004-IV
1,534.1
9.93
13,920.0
15,454.1
45.13
1,426.3
9.83
13,077.9
14,504.2
50.41
2005-II
1,552.5
9.96
14,034.8
15,587.3
54.47
1,444.9
9.87
13,195.8
14,640.7
52.54
2005-IV
1,626.4
10.36
14,072.3
15,698.7
45.53
1,519.1
10.29
13,244.8
14,763.9
47.46
2006-II
1,639.5
10.35
14,195.8
15,835.3
54.09
1,533.2
10.28
13,375.7
14,908.8
53.94
2006-IV
1,691.9
10.61
14,259.4
15,951.3
45.91
1,589.3
10.57
13,443.3
15,032.6
46.06
2007-II
1,693.0
10.52
14,406.4
16,099.4
54.17
1,593.4
10.49
13,592.5
15,186.0
52.74
2007-IV
1,697.4
10.46
14,527.3
16,224.7
45.83
1,610.2
10.51
13,713.3
15,323.5
47.26
2008-II
1,709.0
10.40
14,718.5
16,427.4
54.78
1,643.3
10.59
13,869.8
15,513.0
49.25
2008-IV
1,755.0
10.58
14,839.8
16,594.8
45.22
1,682.6
10.71
14,025.7
15,708.4
50.75
2009-II
1,787.2
10.59
15,085.6
16,872.9
54.85
1,772.9
11.11
14,191.7
15,964.6
51.22
2009-IV
1,915.9
11.20
15,185.8
17,101.7
45.15
1,852.8
11.43
14,355.8
16,208.6
48.78
2010-II
1,951.8
11.23
15,422.6
17,374.4
54.01
1,922.2
11.66
14,567.9
16,490.1
54.98
2010-IV
2,095.5
11.90
15,511.2
17,606.7
45.99
2,039.9
12.20
14,680.6
16,720.5
45.02

Sources:

Historical figures from SSA administrative records; future numbers of retired workers at end of calendar year shown earlier.

Future numbers of retired workers at end of second quarter computed by age group; total computed by applying factor for portion of calendar year change occurring in first two quarters to total calendar year change and adding to number at beginning of calendar year; ages 62-64 computed by applying ratio for ages 62-64 to total number; ages 65 or older computed as residual.

Historical ratio for ages 62-64 computed by dividing numbers of retired workers aged 62-64 by total number of retired workers. Future ratio for ages 62-64 at end of second quarter projected by regression on ratio at end of calendar year.

Historical portion of calendar year change in total number of retired workers computed by dividing change in number of retired workers from beginning of calendar year to end of second quarter or from end of second quarter to end of calendar year, by total change in calendar year. Future portion of calendar year change occurring in total number of retired workers projected by regression on previous year's growth rate.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.


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December 26, 2001