Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

B. NUMBER OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) BENEFICIARIES

Table III.B63—Father Beneficiaries 1 In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status
(End of calendar years 1975-2000 and calendar half years 2001-10)
[Numbers in thousands]
Calendar period
  Minor and
disabled
children of
deceased
workers 2
In force
Withheld
  Number
in current-
payment
status
  Excess
  Percent of
minor and
disabled children
  Number
  Excess
  Percent of
number in force
  Number
1975
2,433.2
0.190
4.6
...
19.364
0.9
3.7
...
1976
2,397.4
.389
9.3
...
23.410
2.2
7.1
...
1977
2,362.3
.609
14.4
...
26.838
3.9
10.5
...
1978
2,291.5
.777
17.8
...
29.494
5.3
12.6
...
1979
2,233.4
.939
21.0
...
31.016
6.5
14.5
...
1980
2,170.2
1.062
23.1
...
30.800
7.1
16.0
...
1981
2,103.4
1.237
26.0
...
32.799
8.5
17.5
...
1982
2,042.3
1.380
28.2
...
34.765
9.8
18.4
...
1983
1,501.0
1.742
26.1
...
33.518
8.8
17.4
...
1984
1,475.7
1.842
27.2
...
36.368
9.9
17.3
...
1985
1,454.2
1.909
27.8
...
37.108
10.3
17.5
...
1986
1,429.7
1.826
26.1
...
40.117
10.5
15.6
...
1987
1,410.1
1.853
26.1
...
42.513
11.1
15.0
...
1988
1,407.1
1.842
25.9
...
42.149
10.9
15.0
...
1989
1,419.7
1.857
26.4
...
41.110
10.8
15.5
...
1990
1,435.6
1.851
26.6
...
41.714
11.1
15.5
...
1991
1,456.6
1.873
27.3
...
40.292
11.0
16.3
...
1992
1,483.5
1.697
25.2
...
37.515
9.4
15.7
...
1993
1,510.3
1.615
24.4
...
35.333
8.6
15.8
...
1994
1,537.4
1.534
23.6
...
34.774
8.2
15.4
...
1995
1,556.5
1.507
23.5
...
35.327
8.3
15.2
...
1996
1,566.6
1.441
22.6
...
52.026
11.7
10.8
...
1997
1,568.6
1.368
21.5
...
51.997
11.2
10.3
...
1998
1,570.7
1.337
21.0
...
52.298
11.0
10.0
...
1999
1,573.8
1.314
20.7
...
52.118
10.8
9.9
...
2000
1,578.8
1.296
20.5
...
52.016
10.6
9.8
...
2001-II
1,586.3
1.285
20.4
0.004
54.872
11.2
9.2
-0.057
2001-IV
1,578.0
1.277
20.1
...
51.929
10.5
9.7
...
2002-II
1,585.2
1.266
20.1
.004
54.802
11.0
9.1
-.057
2002-IV
1,576.7
1.258
19.8
...
51.866
10.3
9.5
...
2003-II
1,582.6
1.249
19.8
.004
54.737
10.8
8.9
-.057
2003-IV
1,572.8
1.242
19.5
...
51.792
10.1
9.4
...
2004-II
1,576.8
1.234
19.5
.004
54.676
10.6
8.8
-.057
2004-IV
1,565.1
1.230
19.2
...
51.736
10.0
9.3
...
2005-II
1,566.4
1.224
19.2
.004
54.634
10.5
8.7
-.057
2005-IV
1,552.1
1.221
19.0
...
51.702
9.8
9.2
...
2006-II
1,551.4
1.217
18.9
.004
54.602
10.3
8.6
-.057
2006-IV
1,535.3
1.215
18.7
...
51.667
9.6
9.0
...
2007-II
1,534.6
1.211
18.6
.004
54.567
10.1
8.4
-.057
2007-IV
1,518.7
1.209
18.4
...
51.628
9.5
8.9
...
2008-II
1,518.8
1.204
18.3
.004
54.545
10.0
8.3
-.057
2008-IV
1,503.8
1.202
18.1
...
51.621
9.3
8.7
...
2009-II
1,504.9
1.197
18.0
.004
54.542
9.8
8.2
-.057
2009-IV
1,491.1
1.194
17.8
...
51.621
9.2
8.6
...
2010-II
1,493.3
1.188
17.7
.004
54.538
9.7
8.1
-.057
2010-IV
1,480.6
1.184
17.5
...
51.614
9.1
8.5
...

1 This benefit was not payable until March 19, 1975.

2 1982 and earlier includes all minor and disabled children of deceased workers; 1983 and later includes minor children under age 16 and all disabled children of deceased workers.

Sources:

Numbers of minor and disabled children of deceased workers shown earlier.

Ratios of number in force to number of minor and disabled children computed by dividing corresponding numbers.

Historical numbers in force from In Force Table; future end of December figures computed by applying single year of age award rates (awards per minor survivor child under age 16 and disabled survivor child awards) and termination rates; future end of June figures interpolated using last historical ratio of June figure to average of December figures (excess).

Historical ratios of number withheld to number in force computed by dividing corresponding numbers; future end of December ratios projected to remain at last known rate by single year of age; future end of June ratios computed by dividing corresponding numbers.

Historical numbers withheld computed by subtracting number in current-payment status from number in force; future end of December figures computed by applying applicable percentage to number in force; future June figures computed by subtracting number in current-payment status from number in force.

Historical numbers in current-payment status from 1-A Table Current-Payment Supplement; future end of December figures computed by subtracting number withheld from number in force; future end of June figures interpolated using last historical ratio of June figure to average of December figures (excess).

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.


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December 26, 2001