Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001 
                    Actuarial Study No. 115 
                    Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.  | 
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|   Calendar period  | 
      In force beginning of period  | 
      Awards during period  | 
      Terminations during period  | 
      In force end of period  | 
      Current-payment status end of period  | 
  |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|   8.0  | 
      127.3  | 
      $79.49  | 
      124.1  | 
      $83.24  | 
      95.1  | 
      0.9546  | 
      $81.95  | 
      156.3  | 
      $86.15  | 
      1.0086  | 
      $86.89  | 
  |
|   6.4  | 
      156.3  | 
      86.15  | 
      143.6  | 
      88.66  | 
      125.5  | 
      .9290  | 
      85.15  | 
      174.5  | 
      93.89  | 
      1.0048  | 
      94.34  | 
  |
|   5.9  | 
      174.5  | 
      93.89  | 
      150.3  | 
      97.15  | 
      144.1  | 
      .9362  | 
      93.08  | 
      180.7  | 
      102.59  | 
      1.0019  | 
      102.78  | 
  |
|   6.5  | 
      180.7  | 
      102.59  | 
      148.9  | 
      106.17  | 
      142.6  | 
      .9476  | 
      103.53  | 
      187.0  | 
      112.00  | 
      1.0137  | 
      113.53  | 
  |
|   9.9  | 
      187.0  | 
      112.00  | 
      145.6  | 
      121.55  | 
      152.5  | 
      .9430  | 
      116.07  | 
      180.1  | 
      127.85  | 
      1.0156  | 
      129.85  | 
  |
|   14.3  | 
      180.1  | 
      127.85  | 
      145.9  | 
      140.44  | 
      145.1  | 
      .9303  | 
      135.95  | 
      181.0  | 
      150.04  | 
      1.0159  | 
      152.43  | 
  |
|   11.2  | 
      181.0  | 
      150.04  | 
      138.1  | 
      154.45  | 
      141.9  | 
      .9207  | 
      153.61  | 
      177.2  | 
      167.78  | 
      1.0306  | 
      172.92  | 
  |
|   7.4  | 
      177.2  | 
      167.78  | 
      104.4  | 
      164.48  | 
      175.9  | 
      1.0500  | 
      189.21  | 
      105.7  | 
      152.25  | 
      1.0211  | 
      155.46  | 
  |
|   3.5  | 
      105.7  | 
      152.25  | 
      70.6  | 
      171.89  | 
      114.1  | 
      1.1230  | 
      176.96  | 
      62.2  | 
      138.28  | 
      1.0414  | 
      144.00  | 
  |
|   3.5  | 
      62.2  | 
      138.28  | 
      61.9  | 
      181.73  | 
      83.2  | 
      1.2086  | 
      172.97  | 
      41.0  | 
      140.89  | 
      1.0632  | 
      149.80  | 
  |
|   3.1  | 
      41.0  | 
      140.89  | 
      55.6  | 
      188.76  | 
      69.4  | 
      1.1370  | 
      165.15  | 
      27.2  | 
      186.90  | 
      1.0535  | 
      196.90  | 
  |
|   1.3  | 
      27.2  | 
      186.90  | 
      52.5  | 
      193.11  | 
      53.5  | 
      1.0350  | 
      195.95  | 
      26.3  | 
      186.69  | 
      1.0812  | 
      201.84  | 
  |
|   4.2  | 
      26.3  | 
      186.69  | 
      54.0  | 
      201.41  | 
      53.2  | 
      1.0509  | 
      204.44  | 
      27.0  | 
      195.94  | 
      1.0891  | 
      213.40  | 
  |
|   4.0  | 
      27.0  | 
      195.94  | 
      61.4  | 
      213.17  | 
      56.3  | 
      1.0405  | 
      212.03  | 
      32.2  | 
      209.38  | 
      1.0888  | 
      227.98  | 
  |
|   4.7  | 
      32.2  | 
      209.38  | 
      56.7  | 
      225.79  | 
      57.2  | 
      1.0326  | 
      226.37  | 
      31.7  | 
      220.53  | 
      1.0910  | 
      240.59  | 
  |
|   5.4  | 
      31.7  | 
      220.53  | 
      58.4  | 
      231.50  | 
      58.3  | 
      1.0183  | 
      236.68  | 
      31.8  | 
      226.54  | 
      1.1036  | 
      250.00  | 
  |
|   3.7  | 
      31.8  | 
      226.54  | 
      60.2  | 
      236.04  | 
      58.2  | 
      1.0170  | 
      238.92  | 
      33.8  | 
      231.37  | 
      1.0945  | 
      253.23  | 
  |
|   3.0  | 
      33.8  | 
      231.37  | 
      65.9  | 
      237.42  | 
      62.7  | 
      1.0055  | 
      239.62  | 
      37.0  | 
      235.32  | 
      1.1132  | 
      261.96  | 
  |
|   2.6  | 
      37.0  | 
      235.32  | 
      70.9  | 
      242.40  | 
      68.7  | 
      1.0132  | 
      244.61  | 
      39.1  | 
      238.91  | 
      1.1131  | 
      265.94  | 
  |
|   2.8  | 
      39.1  | 
      238.91  | 
      74.1  | 
      248.34  | 
      72.6  | 
      1.0148  | 
      249.24  | 
      40.6  | 
      245.80  | 
      1.1138  | 
      273.77  | 
  |
|   2.6  | 
      40.6  | 
      245.80  | 
      75.6  | 
      259.23  | 
      74.5  | 
      1.0283  | 
      259.32  | 
      41.7  | 
      254.10  | 
      1.1182  | 
      284.13  | 
  |
|   2.9  | 
      41.7  | 
      254.10  | 
      76.5  | 
      270.49  | 
      74.3  | 
      1.0245  | 
      267.86  | 
      43.9  | 
      267.90  | 
      1.1010  | 
      294.96  | 
  |
|   2.1  | 
      43.9  | 
      267.90  | 
      75.8  | 
      279.19  | 
      77.0  | 
      1.0183  | 
      278.52  | 
      42.8  | 
      275.89  | 
      1.1100  | 
      306.25  | 
  |
|   1.3  | 
      42.8  | 
      275.89  | 
      82.4  | 
      285.92  | 
      80.1  | 
      1.0215  | 
      285.49  | 
      45.1  | 
      281.88  | 
      1.1106  | 
      313.06  | 
  |
|   1 2.5  | 
      45.1  | 
      281.88  | 
      84.3  | 
      295.37  | 
      84.0  | 
      1.0215  | 
      294.85  | 
      45.4  | 
      291.14  | 
      1.0983  | 
      319.75  | 
  |
|   3.5  | 
      45.4  | 
      291.14  | 
      81.4  | 
      312.60  | 
      81.2  | 
      1.0384  | 
      312.89  | 
      45.6  | 
      303.36  | 
      1.1076  | 
      336.01  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      45.6  | 
      303.36  | 
      24.8  | 
      319.65  | 
      9.6  | 
      .9600  | 
      291.23  | 
      60.8  | 
      311.92  | 
      1.1063  | 
      345.09  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      60.8  | 
      311.92  | 
      19.9  | 
      319.94  | 
      30.4  | 
      1.0000  | 
      311.92  | 
      50.3  | 
      315.09  | 
      1.1063  | 
      348.60  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      50.3  | 
      315.09  | 
      16.6  | 
      320.24  | 
      38.1  | 
      1.0200  | 
      321.39  | 
      28.8  | 
      309.72  | 
      1.1063  | 
      342.65  | 
  |
|   2.8  | 
      28.8  | 
      309.72  | 
      21.5  | 
      329.51  | 
      5.9  | 
      .9200  | 
      292.93  | 
      44.4  | 
      327.19  | 
      1.1063  | 
      361.98  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      44.4  | 
      327.19  | 
      25.9  | 
      331.14  | 
      9.7  | 
      .9600  | 
      314.10  | 
      60.5  | 
      330.99  | 
      1.1063  | 
      366.18  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      60.5  | 
      330.99  | 
      20.7  | 
      332.77  | 
      30.4  | 
      1.0000  | 
      330.99  | 
      50.7  | 
      331.71  | 
      1.1063  | 
      366.98  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      50.7  | 
      331.71  | 
      17.2  | 
      334.40  | 
      38.6  | 
      1.0200  | 
      338.34  | 
      29.4  | 
      324.59  | 
      1.1063  | 
      359.11  | 
  |
|   2.9  | 
      29.4  | 
      324.59  | 
      22.4  | 
      345.78  | 
      6.1  | 
      .9200  | 
      307.30  | 
      45.7  | 
      343.35  | 
      1.1063  | 
      379.86  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      45.7  | 
      343.35  | 
      26.7  | 
      347.73  | 
      10.0  | 
      .9600  | 
      329.62  | 
      62.4  | 
      347.44  | 
      1.1063  | 
      384.38  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      62.4  | 
      347.44  | 
      21.4  | 
      349.68  | 
      31.4  | 
      1.0000  | 
      347.44  | 
      52.3  | 
      348.35  | 
      1.1063  | 
      385.39  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      52.3  | 
      348.35  | 
      17.8  | 
      351.63  | 
      39.8  | 
      1.0200  | 
      355.31  | 
      30.3  | 
      341.15  | 
      1.1063  | 
      377.42  | 
  |
|   3.0  | 
      30.3  | 
      341.15  | 
      23.2  | 
      364.19  | 
      6.3  | 
      .9200  | 
      323.29  | 
      47.2  | 
      361.42  | 
      1.1063  | 
      399.85  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      47.2  | 
      361.42  | 
      27.6  | 
      366.15  | 
      10.4  | 
      .9600  | 
      346.96  | 
      64.4  | 
      365.77  | 
      1.1063  | 
      404.66  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      64.4  | 
      365.77  | 
      22.1  | 
      368.10  | 
      32.5  | 
      1.0000  | 
      365.77  | 
      54.1  | 
      366.72  | 
      1.1063  | 
      405.72  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      54.1  | 
      366.72  | 
      18.4  | 
      370.06  | 
      41.1  | 
      1.0200  | 
      374.06  | 
      31.3  | 
      359.06  | 
      1.1063  | 
      397.24  | 
  |
|   3.1  | 
      31.3  | 
      359.06  | 
      23.9  | 
      383.55  | 
      6.5  | 
      .9200  | 
      340.59  | 
      48.7  | 
      380.69  | 
      1.1063  | 
      421.18  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      48.7  | 
      380.69  | 
      28.6  | 
      385.35  | 
      10.7  | 
      .9600  | 
      365.47  | 
      66.6  | 
      385.14  | 
      1.1063  | 
      426.10  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      66.6  | 
      385.14  | 
      22.9  | 
      387.14  | 
      33.6  | 
      1.0000  | 
      385.14  | 
      55.9  | 
      385.96  | 
      1.1063  | 
      427.00  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      55.9  | 
      385.96  | 
      19.1  | 
      388.94  | 
      42.5  | 
      1.0200  | 
      393.68  | 
      32.4  | 
      377.59  | 
      1.1063  | 
      417.74  | 
  |
|   3.2  | 
      32.4  | 
      377.59  | 
      24.8  | 
      403.24  | 
      6.7  | 
      .9200  | 
      358.51  | 
      50.5  | 
      400.49  | 
      1.1063  | 
      443.08  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      50.5  | 
      400.49  | 
      29.6  | 
      404.71  | 
      11.1  | 
      .9600  | 
      384.47  | 
      68.9  | 
      404.88  | 
      1.1063  | 
      447.93  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      68.9  | 
      404.88  | 
      23.7  | 
      406.18  | 
      34.7  | 
      1.0000  | 
      404.88  | 
      57.9  | 
      405.41  | 
      1.1063  | 
      448.52  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      57.9  | 
      405.41  | 
      19.7  | 
      407.65  | 
      44.0  | 
      1.0200  | 
      413.52  | 
      33.6  | 
      396.10  | 
      1.1063  | 
      438.23  | 
  |
|   3.3  | 
      33.6  | 
      396.10  | 
      25.6  | 
      422.62  | 
      7.0  | 
      .9200  | 
      376.46  | 
      52.2  | 
      420.15  | 
      1.1063  | 
      464.83  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      52.2  | 
      420.15  | 
      30.4  | 
      423.96  | 
      11.5  | 
      .9600  | 
      403.34  | 
      71.2  | 
      424.48  | 
      1.1063  | 
      469.62  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      71.2  | 
      424.48  | 
      24.3  | 
      425.29  | 
      35.8  | 
      1.0000  | 
      424.48  | 
      59.7  | 
      424.81  | 
      1.1063  | 
      469.98  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      59.7  | 
      424.81  | 
      20.3  | 
      426.62  | 
      45.4  | 
      1.0200  | 
      433.30  | 
      34.6  | 
      414.72  | 
      1.1063  | 
      458.82  | 
  |
|   3.3  | 
      34.6  | 
      414.72  | 
      26.4  | 
      442.08  | 
      7.2  | 
      .9200  | 
      394.15  | 
      53.8  | 
      439.69  | 
      1.1063  | 
      486.44  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      53.8  | 
      439.69  | 
      31.3  | 
      443.42  | 
      11.8  | 
      .9600  | 
      422.10  | 
      73.3  | 
      444.11  | 
      1.1063  | 
      491.34  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      73.3  | 
      444.11  | 
      25.1  | 
      444.76  | 
      36.9  | 
      1.0000  | 
      444.11  | 
      61.5  | 
      444.38  | 
      1.1063  | 
      491.63  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      61.5  | 
      444.38  | 
      20.9  | 
      446.10  | 
      46.8  | 
      1.0200  | 
      453.27  | 
      35.6  | 
      433.72  | 
      1.1063  | 
      479.85  | 
  |
|   3.3  | 
      35.6  | 
      433.72  | 
      27.2  | 
      462.21  | 
      7.4  | 
      .9200  | 
      412.21  | 
      55.4  | 
      459.77  | 
      1.1063  | 
      508.66  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      55.4  | 
      459.77  | 
      32.3  | 
      463.57  | 
      12.2  | 
      .9600  | 
      441.38  | 
      75.5  | 
      464.36  | 
      1.1063  | 
      513.73  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      75.5  | 
      464.36  | 
      25.8  | 
      464.93  | 
      38.0  | 
      1.0000  | 
      464.36  | 
      63.3  | 
      464.60  | 
      1.1063  | 
      514.00  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      63.3  | 
      464.60  | 
      21.5  | 
      466.30  | 
      48.1  | 
      1.0200  | 
      473.89  | 
      36.7  | 
      453.41  | 
      1.1063  | 
      501.63  | 
  |
|   3.3  | 
      36.7  | 
      453.41  | 
      28.0  | 
      483.09  | 
      7.6  | 
      .9200  | 
      430.92  | 
      57.0  | 
      480.59  | 
      1.1063  | 
      531.70  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      57.0  | 
      480.59  | 
      33.2  | 
      484.58  | 
      12.5  | 
      .9600  | 
      461.37  | 
      77.7  | 
      485.39  | 
      1.1063  | 
      537.01  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      77.7  | 
      485.39  | 
      26.6  | 
      486.06  | 
      39.1  | 
      1.0000  | 
      485.39  | 
      65.2  | 
      485.66  | 
      1.1063  | 
      537.31  | 
  |
|   ...  | 
      65.2  | 
      485.66  | 
      22.2  | 
      487.54  | 
      49.6  | 
      1.0200  | 
      495.38  | 
      37.8  | 
      474.01  | 
      1.1063  | 
      524.42  | 
  |
|   3.3  | 
      37.8  | 
      474.01  | 
      28.8  | 
      505.16  | 
      7.8  | 
      .9200  | 
      450.50  | 
      58.8  | 
      502.48  | 
      1.1063  | 
      555.92  | 
  |
1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent.  | 
  
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
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List of Studies
December 26, 2001