Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

E. OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS

Table III.E8—Average Monthly Benefit to Mother and Father Beneficiaries
In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status
(By gender, calendar years 1975-2010)
[Numbers in thousands]
Year
  Benefit
increase
(percent)
In force
beginning of year
Awards
during year
Terminations
during year
In force
end of year
Current-payment status
end of year
  Number
  Average
benefit
  Number
  Average
benefit
  Number
  Ratio to
average
benefit
in force
beginning
of year
  Average
benefit
  Number
  Average
benefit
  Ratio to
average
benefit
in force
end of
year
  Average
benefit
Mothers
1975
8.0
643.9
$136.00
111.4
$153.39
110.3
0.9571
$140.58
645.0
$149.08
0.9902
$147.62
1980
14.3
620.4
216.02
99.9
247.60
110.6
.9655
238.39
609.7
248.57
1.0026
249.21
1985
3.1
417.8
327.14
67.0
324.39
80.1
.9479
319.69
404.6
338.63
1.0017
339.20
1986
1.3
404.6
338.63
64.1
332.88
84.1
.9698
332.68
384.7
343.60
1.0031
344.67
1987
4.2
384.7
343.60
59.0
352.82
75.7
.9813
351.35
367.9
358.57
1.0018
359.23
1988
4.0
367.9
358.57
57.9
365.60
69.9
.9734
363.00
355.9
373.67
1.0029
374.74
1989
4.7
355.9
373.67
54.3
385.44
62.7
.9637
377.04
347.5
392.89
1.0053
394.97
1990
5.4
347.5
392.89
52.6
407.24
60.2
.9761
404.20
339.9
414.80
1.0050
416.88
1991
3.7
339.9
414.80
52.5
419.45
57.7
.9827
422.71
334.7
429.75
1.0061
432.35
1992
3.0
334.7
429.75
51.0
432.39
58.9
.9922
439.17
326.8
441.67
1.0086
445.46
1993
2.6
326.8
441.67
51.0
444.23
56.8
.9930
449.97
321.0
452.30
1.0084
456.10
1994
2.8
321.0
452.30
49.5
462.43
57.7
.9685
450.33
312.8
467.26
1.0099
471.90
1995
2.6
312.8
467.26
46.6
473.80
53.8
.9766
468.21
305.6
480.53
1.0099
485.28
1996
2.9
305.6
480.53
43.5
507.26
54.2
.8654
427.89
294.9
508.59
1.0216
519.56
1997
2.1
294.9
508.59
39.3
531.13
52.0
.9722
504.85
282.2
523.57
1.0246
536.45
1998
1.3
282.2
523.57
38.1
543.99
48.2
.9757
517.50
272.2
534.56
1.0278
549.43
1999
1 2.5
272.2
534.56
37.5
580.29
47.1
.9844
538.85
262.6
553.63
1.0299
570.19
2000
3.5
262.6
553.63
35.9
611.64
46.3
.9801
561.60
252.2
580.60
1.0328
599.67
2001
2.8
252.2
580.60
36.4
635.56
44.2
.9769
583.07
244.3
605.11
1.0328
624.99
2002
2.9
244.3
605.11
36.0
665.59
43.2
.9767
608.16
237.1
631.82
1.0328
652.57
2003
3.0
237.1
631.82
35.7
697.58
41.8
.9751
634.57
231.0
660.94
1.0328
682.65
2004
3.1
231.0
660.94
35.4
731.83
40.9
.9738
663.58
225.5
692.58
1.0328
715.32
2005
3.2
225.5
692.58
35.0
769.08
40.0
.9730
695.42
220.5
726.86
1.0328
750.74
2006
3.3
220.5
726.86
34.5
805.71
39.2
.9710
729.09
215.8
763.57
1.0328
788.65
2007
3.3
215.8
763.57
34.0
843.45
38.4
.9699
765.05
211.4
801.88
1.0328
828.22
2008
3.3
211.4
801.88
33.6
883.15
37.7
.9696
803.19
207.3
841.79
1.0328
869.44
2009
3.3
207.3
841.79
33.2
924.37
37.3
.9699
843.43
203.3
883.32
1.0328
912.33
2010
3.3
203.3
883.32
32.8
968.16
36.5
.9704
885.45
199.6
926.57
1.0328
957.00
Fathers2
1975
8.0
...
...
4.9
99.59
.2
...
108.02
4.6
99.17
.9036
89.61
1980
14.3
21.0
142.29
7.9
151.50
5.8
.9141
148.67
23.1
162.35
.8808
142.99
1985
3.1
27.2
210.92
5.3
205.48
4.7
.9753
212.08
27.8
216.10
.9045
195.47
1986
1.3
27.8
216.10
5.2
216.40
6.9
.8050
176.23
26.1
229.61
.8909
204.57
1987
4.2
26.1
229.61
5.1
235.17
5.0
.8942
213.95
26.1
243.35
.8868
215.80
1988
4.0
26.1
243.35
4.8
248.68
5.0
.8861
224.25
25.9
257.85
.8906
229.63
1989
4.7
25.9
257.85
4.5
268.89
4.1
.9021
243.53
26.4
273.86
.9034
247.39
1990
5.4
26.4
273.86
4.6
291.67
4.4
.9363
270.27
26.6
292.18
.9055
264.56
1991
3.7
26.6
292.18
4.9
304.53
4.2
.9358
283.56
27.3
306.28
.9146
280.12
1992
3.0
27.3
306.28
5.1
318.54
7.2
.9783
308.63
25.2
318.03
.9421
299.63
1993
2.6
25.2
318.03
5.0
337.27
5.8
.9956
324.85
24.4
328.88
.9587
315.30
1994
2.8
24.4
328.88
4.8
351.04
5.7
.9383
317.24
23.6
345.76
.9666
334.21
1995
2.6
23.6
345.76
4.7
367.05
4.8
.9258
328.43
23.5
362.64
.9688
351.33
1996
2.9
23.5
362.64
4.1
403.82
5.0
.7753
289.31
22.6
397.41
1.0460
415.68
1997
2.1
22.6
397.41
3.6
424.84
4.7
.9441
383.08
21.5
413.98
1.0577
437.88
1998
1.3
21.5
413.98
3.8
435.85
4.2
.9492
398.08
21.0
426.62
1.0624
453.22
1999
1 2.5
21.0
426.62
3.8
459.55
4.1
.9569
418.02
20.7
444.67
1.0663
474.13
2000
3.5
20.7
444.67
3.8
496.11
4.1
.9571
440.49
20.5
470.91
1.0676
502.76
2001
2.8
20.5
470.91
3.8
515.51
4.1
.9478
458.81
20.1
495.05
1.0676
528.54
2002
2.9
20.1
495.05
3.7
539.87
4.0
.9487
483.28
19.8
520.44
1.0676
555.64
2003
3.0
19.8
520.44
3.7
565.81
4.0
.9486
508.48
19.5
547.29
1.0676
584.31
2004
3.1
19.5
547.29
3.6
593.60
3.9
.9472
534.44
19.2
575.93
1.0676
614.88
2005
3.2
19.2
575.93
3.6
623.81
3.9
.9466
562.61
19.0
606.49
1.0676
647.51
2006
3.3
19.0
606.49
3.6
653.53
3.8
.9460
592.66
18.7
638.62
1.0676
681.82
2007
3.3
18.7
638.62
3.5
684.14
3.8
.9458
623.92
18.4
671.74
1.0676
717.18
2008
3.3
18.4
671.74
3.5
716.33
3.7
.9458
656.31
18.1
705.98
1.0676
753.73
2009
3.3
18.1
705.98
3.4
749.77
3.7
.9458
689.76
17.8
741.39
1.0676
791.54
2010
3.3
17.8
741.39
3.4
785.29
3.6
.9463
724.76
17.5
778.12
1.0676
830.75

1 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent.

2 This benefit was not payable until March 19, 1975.

Sources:

· Number in force and number awarded shown earlier.

· Number terminated calculated as in force beginning of year plus awards during year minus in force end of year.

· Average benefit awarded, shown earlier.

· Historical ratio of average terminated benefit to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures where the average benefit in force at the beginning of the year has been adjusted to the end-of-year rate; future ratios projected based on historical trend.

· Historical average terminated benefit computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of year times average benefit in force, plus number of awards times average benefit awarded at beginning-of-year rate, minus number in force at end of year times average benefit in force at beginning-of-year rates, by (b) number of terminations. Future average terminated benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force at beginning of year.

· Historical average benefit in force from 1-A Table In Force Supplement. Future average benefit in force at end of year computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of year times average benefit in force at end-of-year rate, plus number of awards times average benefit awarded at end-of-year rate, minus number of terminations times average terminated benefit at end of year rate, by (b) number in force at end of year.

· Historical ratio of average benefit in current-payment status to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures; future ratios projected based on historical trend.

· Historical average benefit in current-payment status from 1-A Table Current-Payment Supplement; future average benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.

Contents Glossary

List of Studies
December 26, 2001