Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

E. OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS

Table III.E9—Average Monthly Benefit to Parents of Deceased Workers
In Force, Awarded, Terminated, and In Current-Payment Status
(By gender, calendar years 1975-2010)
[Numbers in thousands]
Year
  Benefit
increase
(percent)
In force
beginning of year
Awards
during year
Terminations
during year
In force
end of year
Current-payment status
end of year
  Number
  Average
benefit
  Number
  Average
benefit
  Number
  Ratio to
average
benefit
in force
beginning
of year
  Average
benefit
  Number
  Average
benefit
  Ratio to
average
benefit
in force
end of
year
  Average
benefit
Male
1975
8.0
1.1
$142.85
0.1
$173.10
0.1
0.9884
$152.48
1.0
$155.77
0.9826
$153.07
1980
14.3
.8
215.27
.1
229.80
.1
.9086
223.56
.7
248.42
.9996
248.32
1985
3.1
.6
333.63
339.63
.1
.8527
293.32
.6
350.63
1.0018
351.25
1986
1.3
.6
350.63
349.02
.1
.8687
308.54
.6
358.90
1.0052
360.76
1987
4.2
.6
358.90
344.28
.1
.7906
295.67
.5
380.98
1.0084
384.19
1988
4.0
.5
380.98
416.05
.1
.8711
345.14
.5
405.88
1.0136
411.40
1989
4.7
.5
405.88
386.52
.7343
312.07
.5
433.41
1.0154
440.08
1990
5.4
.5
433.41
456.60
.1
.8063
368.33
.5
466.39
1.0107
471.40
1991
3.7
.5
466.39
488.88
.8984
434.52
.5
489.43
1.0199
499.15
1992
3.0
.5
489.43
.1
492.60
.9623
485.11
.5
504.58
1.0262
517.81
1993
2.6
.5
504.58
477.20
.8352
432.41
.5
522.97
1.0193
533.06
1994
2.8
.5
522.97
510.70
.8125
436.80
.5
544.61
1.0290
560.42
1995
2.6
.5
544.61
552.58
.9601
536.50
.5
560.13
1.0317
577.89
1996
2.9
.5
560.13
514.01
.8297
478.21
.4
581.27
1.0343
601.21
1997
2.1
.4
581.27
557.59
.8874
526.67
.4
598.62
1.0345
619.30
1998
1.3
.4
598.62
598.56
1.0442
633.21
.4
603.27
1.0336
623.53
1999
2 2.5
.4
603.27
604.35
.9790
604.80
.4
618.25
1.0388
642.26
2000
3.5
.4
618.25
643.40
.9432
603.55
.4
642.60
1.0424
669.83
2001
2.8
.4
642.60
669.39
.8662
572.17
.4
669.51
1.0424
697.88
2002
2.9
.4
669.51
694.68
.7994
550.76
.4
702.36
1.0424
732.13
2003
3.0
.4
702.36
720.80
.7925
573.31
.4
737.06
1.0424
768.29
2004
3.1
.4
737.06
752.39
.7785
591.62
.3
774.78
1.0424
807.61
2005
3.2
.3
774.78
785.59
.7773
621.47
.3
814.85
1.0424
849.38
2006
3.3
.3
814.85
819.37
.7761
653.26
.3
857.13
1.0424
893.45
2007
3.3
.3
857.13
859.26
.7626
675.21
.3
902.24
1.0424
940.48
2008
3.3
.3
902.24
898.83
.7729
720.39
.3
948.48
1.0424
988.68
2009
3.3
.3
948.48
941.23
.7657
750.26
.3
997.26
1.0424
1,039.52
2010
3.3
.3
997.26
985.95
.7569
779.78
.3
1,048.78
1.0424
1,093.23
Female
1975
8.0
22.1
158.20
.9
205.40
2.4
.9906
169.24
20.6
172.55
1.0010
172.73
1980
14.3
15.4
239.54
.7
317.00
1.8
.9676
264.91
14.2
276.94
1.0017
277.41
1985
3.1
10.1
363.96
.3
374.44
1.2
.9486
355.95
9.2
377.73
1.0054
379.77
1986
1.3
9.2
377.73
.3
388.00
1.1
.9415
360.26
8.4
385.79
1.0068
388.41
1987
4.2
8.4
385.79
.2
447.59
1.0
.9587
385.37
7.6
405.69
1.0076
408.76
1988
4.0
7.6
405.69
.2
456.06
.9
.9480
399.97
7.0
425.79
1.0088
429.52
1989
4.7
7.0
425.79
.2
468.29
.9
.9448
421.18
6.4
449.94
1.0100
454.46
1990
5.4
6.4
449.94
.2
519.47
.7
.9786
464.07
5.8
477.13
1.0123
483.02
1991
3.7
5.8
477.13
.2
534.90
.6
.9409
465.56
5.4
499.70
1.0139
506.63
1992
3.0
5.4
499.70
.2
544.24
.6
.9590
493.61
5.0
518.63
1.0164
527.15
1993
2.6
5.0
518.63
.2
556.91
.6
.9351
497.60
4.7
537.37
1.0205
548.39
1994
2.8
4.7
537.37
.2
572.44
.5
.9436
521.26
4.3
556.99
1.0240
570.36
1995
2.6
4.3
556.99
.2
619.06
.5
.9612
549.31
4.0
576.11
1.0278
592.12
1996
2.9
4.0
576.11
.1
620.16
.4
.9526
564.75
3.7
597.13
1.0296
614.80
1997
2.1
3.7
597.13
.1
635.72
.4
.8991
548.16
3.5
616.97
1.0331
637.36
1998
1.3
3.5
616.97
.1
683.32
.3
.9594
599.63
3.3
629.78
1.0381
653.79
1999
2 2.5
3.3
629.78
.1
699.52
.3
.9482
611.48
3.1
650.56
1.0410
677.24
2000
3.5
3.1
650.56
.1
719.40
.3
.9692
652.56
2.9
677.12
1.0448
707.47
2001
2.8
2.9
677.12
.1
748.46
.3
.9458
658.36
2.7
701.70
1.0448
733.15
2002
2.9
2.7
701.70
.1
776.74
.3
.9464
683.37
2.5
727.85
1.0448
760.47
2003
3.0
2.5
727.85
.1
805.94
.3
.9469
709.87
2.3
755.81
1.0448
789.68
2004
3.1
2.3
755.81
.1
841.27
.2
.9459
737.10
2.1
786.14
1.0448
821.37
2005
3.2
2.1
786.14
.1
878.39
.2
.9447
766.43
2.0
819.08
1.0448
855.79
2006
3.3
2.0
819.08
.1
916.16
.2
.9426
797.53
1.9
854.93
1.0448
893.25
2007
3.3
1.9
854.93
.1
960.76
.2
.9414
831.37
1.8
893.09
1.0448
933.11
2008
3.3
1.8
893.09
.1
1,005.00
.2
.9392
866.48
1.7
933.75
1.0448
975.60
2009
3.3
1.7
933.75
.1
1,052.41
.2
.9389
905.59
1.6
976.64
1.0448
1,020.41
2010
3.3
1.6
976.64
.1
1,102.41
.2
.9367
945.04
1.5
1,022.19
1.0448
1,068.00

1 Fewer than 50.

2 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent.

Sources:

Number in force and number awarded shown earlier.

Number terminated calculated as in force beginning of year plus awards during year minus in force end of year.

Average benefit awarded, shown earlier.

Historical ratio of average terminated benefit to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures where the average benefit in force at the beginning of the year has been adjusted to the end-of-year rate; future ratios projected based on historical trend.

Historical average terminated benefit computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of year times average benefit in force, plus number of awards times average benefit awarded at beginning-of-year rate, minus number in force at end of year times average benefit in force at beginning-of-year rates, by (b) number of terminations. Future average terminated benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force at beginning of year.

Historical average benefit in force from 1-A Table In Force Supplement. Future average benefit in force at end of year computed by dividing (a) number in force at beginning of year times average benefit in force at end-of-year rate, plus number of awards times average benefit awarded at end-of-year rate, minus number of terminations times average terminated benefit at end of year rate, by (b) number in force at end of year.

Historical ratio of average benefit in current-payment status to average benefit in force computed by division of corresponding figures; future ratios projected based on historical trend.

Historical average benefit in current-payment status from 1-A Table Current-Payment Supplement; future average benefit computed by applying applicable ratio to average benefit in force.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.


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December 26, 2001