Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
Contents Glossary




 

II. ASSUMPTIONS

Table II.5—Interest Rates for Special Public-Debt Obligations Issuable to the OASI and DI Trust Funds
(Calendar years 1970-20101)
[Percent]
Month
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
January
7.750
6.125
5.625
6.125
6.750
7.125
7.250
6.375
7.625
9.000
February
7.875
5.875
5.875
6.375
6.750
7.125
7.250
7.125
7.750
8.750
March
7.000
5.625
5.750
6.500
6.875
6.875
7.250
7.125
7.875
9.000
April
7.000
5.250
6.000
6.625
7.375
7.250
7.125
7.125
8.000
8.875
May
7.625
6.000
5.875
6.500
7.750
7.625
7.125
7.125
8.000
9.000
June
7.625
6.125
5.750
6.625
7.625
7.375
7.500
7.125
8.250
8.750
July
7.500
6.625
6.000
6.750
7.875
7.375
7.375
7.000
8.375
8.500
August
7.375
6.750
5.875
7.500
8.000
7.500
7.250
7.125
8.375
8.750
September
7.250
6.000
6.125
7.000
8.125
7.625
7.125
7.000
8.250
9.000
October
7.000
5.875
6.125
6.500
7.750
7.875
7.125
7.125
8.375
9.250
November
7.000
5.625
6.125
6.625
7.625
7.375
6.875
7.375
8.875
10.500
December
6.125
5.875
6.000
6.625
7.375
7.625
6.500
7.375
8.625
10.000
Average nominal rate
7.260
5.979
5.927
6.646
7.490
7.396
7.146
7.083
8.198
9.115
OASDI effective rate
5.074
5.286
5.406
5.754
6.218
6.593
6.731
6.958
7.199
7.524
Month
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
January
10.000
11.875
13.500
10.500
11.750
11.500
9.125
7.500
8.875
9.250
February
10.750
12.125
13.750
10.875
11.500
11.125
9.250
7.375
8.250
9.000
March
12.375
12.875
13.625
10.375
11.875
11.875
8.375
7.375
8.125
9.375
April
12.250
12.500
13.625
10.625
12.375
11.625
7.625
7.625
8.625
9.375
May
10.375
13.500
13.250
10.250
12.625
11.375
7.625
8.375
8.875
9.125
June
9.750
13.000
13.250
10.750
13.750
10.375
8.375
8.625
9.250
8.750
July
9.625
13.250
13.875
10.875
13.750
10.250
7.750
8.500
8.875
8.250
August
10.125
14.000
13.250
11.750
12.875
10.625
7.750
8.750
9.125
7.875
September
11.125
14.875
12.250
11.875
12.750
10.375
7.250
9.000
9.250
8.375
October
11.500
15.250
11.625
11.375
12.375
10.375
7.750
9.625
8.875
8.500
November
12.000
14.250
10.625
11.625
11.625
10.125
7.625
9.000
8.625
8.000
December
12.125
12.500
10.750
11.500
11.500
9.750
7.375
9.000
9.125
8.000
Average nominal rate
11.000
13.333
12.781
11.031
12.396
10.781
7.990
8.396
8.823
8.656
OASDI effective rate
8.568
9.947
11.178
10.768
11.601
11.213
11.091
10.063
9.773
9.572
Month
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
January
8.125
8.125
6.875
6.875
6.000
8.000
5.875
6.625
6.000
5.000
February
8.500
8.125
7.250
6.500
5.750
7.750
5.875
6.625
5.750
5.000
March
8.625
8.125
7.375
6.250
6.250
7.375
6.375
6.750
5.875
5.625
April
8.750
8.125
7.625
6.250
6.875
7.375
6.625
7.125
6.000
5.625
May
9.125
8.125
7.625
6.125
7.125
7.250
6.875
6.875
6.000
5.625
June
8.750
8.125
7.375
6.250
7.250
6.500
7.000
6.875
5.875
6.000
July
8.500
8.250
7.125
5.875
7.375
6.500
6.875
6.750
5.750
6.125
August
8.375
8.250
6.750
5.875
7.125
6.625
6.875
6.250
5.750
6.250
September
8.875
7.875
6.625
5.625
7.250
6.500
7.125
6.625
5.375
6.250
October
8.875
7.500
6.500
5.625
7.750
6.375
6.875
6.375
4.875
6.250
November
8.625
7.500
6.875
5.625
7.875
6.250
6.500
6.125
5.125
6.250
December
8.375
7.375
7.000
5.875
8.000
6.000
6.250
6.125
5.125
6.375
Average nominal rate
8.625
7.958
7.083
6.063
7.052
6.875
6.594
6.594
5.625
5.865
OASDI effective rate
9.324
9.090
8.744
8.322
8.040
7.846
7.615
7.500
7.228
6.948
Month
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
January
6.625
5.375
6.000
6.125
6.125
6.125
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
February
6.750
5.500
6.000
6.000
6.125
6.125
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
March
6.500
5.500
6.000
6.000
6.125
6.125
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
April
6.250
5.250
6.000
6.000
6.125
6.125
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
May
6.375
5.375
6.000
6.000
6.125
6.125
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
June
6.500
5.500
6.000
6.000
6.125
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
July
6.250
5.625
6.000
6.000
6.125
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
August
6.125
5.750
6.000
6.000
6.125
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
September
6.000
5.750
6.000
6.000
6.125
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
October
6.000
5.875
6.000
6.000
6.250
6.125
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
November
5.875
6.000
6.000
6.000
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
December
5.625
6.000
6.000
6.000
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
Average nominal rate
6.240
5.625
6.000
6.010
6.156
6.188
6.250
6.250
6.250
6.250
OASDI effective rate
6.851
6.634
6.488
6.398
6.341
6.321
6.313
6.310
6.315
6.319

1 Nominal rates for 2010 (not shown) are same as 2009. OASDI effective rate estimated to be 6.322 percent.

Sources:

Historical nominal interest rates from unpublished monthly report, Department of the Treasury; future rates projected by Office of the Chief Actuary. These rates apply only to new investments for the month shown. The average nominal interest rate is the average of the 12 monthly rates.

Historical effective interest rates based on Social Security administrative records; projected rates earned by the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are based on a dollar-weighted rate of return over 6-month periods.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.


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December 26, 2001