Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
Contents Glossary




 

V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

B. HIGH-COST ASSUMPTIONS

Table V.B8—Summary of OASDI Benefit Payments
(High-cost alternative, calendar quarters 2001-10)
[In millions]
Calendar
period
Total
Retired workers and auxiliaries
Survivors of deceased workers
Disabled workers and auxiliaries
Special
age-72
benefi-
ciaries
Lump-
sum
pay-
ments
Total
Retired
workers
Depend-
ents
Total
Chil-
dren
Widowed
mothers
and
fathers
Aged
widows
and
widowers
and
aged
parents
Disabled
widows
and
widowers
Total
Disabled
workers
Depend-
ents
2001-I
$107,076.7
$72,105.8
$66,631.3
$5,474.5
$20,201.2
$3,254.8
$363.1
$16,238.6
$344.8
$14,710.0
$13,350.8
$1,359.2
$0.1
$59.6
2001-II
107,884.4
72,485.2
66,996.1
5,489.1
20,356.0
3,296.7
356.0
16,351.3
352.1
14,987.2
13,591.5
1,395.7
56.0
2001-III
108,289.1
72,649.9
67,154.4
5,495.4
20,366.6
3,222.8
360.5
16,429.4
353.8
15,219.9
13,837.3
1,382.5
52.8
2001-IV
109,120.7
73,170.6
67,650.6
5,520.0
20,435.8
3,241.3
365.6
16,477.7
351.3
15,465.7
14,064.8
1,400.9
48.5

2002-I
113,108.8
75,650.7
69,979.3
5,671.5
21,138.7
3,397.4
368.8
17,003.8
368.7
16,259.8
14,779.5
1,480.3
59.5
2002-II
114,020.6
76,130.8
70,438.3
5,692.5
21,312.2
3,441.0
362.1
17,132.8
376.4
16,521.6
15,009.1
1,512.5
56.0
2002-III
114,465.1
76,335.9
70,631.4
5,704.6
21,331.1
3,362.3
366.9
17,223.9
378.0
16,745.4
15,254.6
1,490.8
52.7
2002-IV
115,362.4
76,889.2
71,153.4
5,735.8
21,413.8
3,381.0
372.0
17,285.8
375.0
17,011.0
15,501.6
1,509.3
48.5

2003-I
120,142.6
79,819.6
73,900.1
5,919.5
22,237.2
3,553.4
376.7
17,913.1
394.0
18,026.2
16,414.7
1,611.5
59.5
2003-II
121,155.7
80,341.3
74,396.3
5,945.0
22,418.7
3,597.4
370.2
18,048.8
402.2
18,339.8
16,692.1
1,647.6
56.0
2003-III
121,651.5
80,553.0
74,592.4
5,960.7
22,436.5
3,512.2
375.5
18,144.9
403.9
18,609.2
16,985.7
1,623.5
52.7
2003-IV
122,617.0
81,121.4
75,124.5
5,996.8
22,523.1
3,529.9
380.8
18,211.7
400.8
18,924.0
17,279.7
1,644.3
48.5

2004-I
129,817.3
85,644.2
79,351.3
6,292.9
23,780.3
3,771.7
392.3
19,187.7
428.5
20,333.2
18,556.3
1,776.9
59.6
2004-II
130,968.1
86,260.0
79,942.6
6,317.3
23,981.6
3,816.7
385.8
19,341.4
437.7
20,670.5
18,853.9
1,816.6
56.0
2004-III
131,518.1
86,501.9
80,171.4
6,330.4
24,006.8
3,723.5
391.2
19,452.1
439.9
20,956.7
19,167.5
1,789.1
52.8
2004-IV
132,548.6
87,101.7
80,736.1
6,365.6
24,106.9
3,740.2
396.6
19,533.2
436.9
21,291.4
19,480.0
1,811.4
48.5

2005-I
141,670.3
92,856.4
86,117.0
6,739.4
25,687.5
4,027.6
411.9
20,777.4
470.5
23,066.7
21,092.1
1,974.6
59.7
2005-II
142,958.1
93,578.3
86,814.3
6,764.0
25,894.7
4,074.3
405.2
20,935.1
480.1
23,428.9
21,410.6
2,018.4
56.1
2005-III
143,582.3
93,880.7
87,104.5
6,776.1
25,914.8
3,972.9
411.0
21,048.6
482.4
23,734.0
21,746.4
1,987.6
52.9
2005-IV
144,702.4
94,545.6
87,733.7
6,811.9
26,016.0
3,988.8
416.6
21,131.5
479.1
24,092.1
22,080.5
2,011.7
48.6

2006-I
151,456.8
98,722.2
91,660.4
7,061.7
27,151.3
4,209.3
424.1
22,012.1
505.8
25,523.4
23,378.5
2,144.9
59.9
2006-II
152,794.8
99,473.8
92,384.2
7,089.6
27,372.9
4,256.4
417.4
22,183.4
515.8
25,891.8
23,701.1
2,190.7
56.3
2006-III
153,449.5
99,800.1
92,696.2
7,103.9
27,394.9
4,146.1
423.4
22,307.6
517.9
26,201.4
24,044.8
2,156.6
53.0
2006-IV
154,663.9
100,540.9
93,397.9
7,143.1
27,503.4
4,160.3
428.9
22,400.0
514.2
26,570.9
24,389.0
2,181.9
48.7

2007-I
161,747.2
104,924.4
97,523.4
7,401.1
28,688.9
4,387.7
436.5
23,322.4
542.3
28,073.8
25,753.6
2,320.2
60.1
2007-II
163,154.8
105,711.0
98,277.1
7,433.9
28,941.4
4,435.1
429.9
23,524.7
551.7
28,446.0
26,078.0
2,368.1
56.5
2007-III
163,858.3
106,070.6
98,619.2
7,451.4
28,977.8
4,313.3
436.1
23,675.7
552.7
28,756.7
26,426.2
2,330.4
53.2
2007-IV
165,225.0
106,936.0
99,440.5
7,495.5
29,107.6
4,325.0
441.5
23,793.9
547.3
29,132.6
26,775.9
2,356.7
48.9

2008-I
173,288.2
111,984.2
104,198.5
7,785.8
30,435.0
4,567.7
450.0
24,840.6
576.7
30,808.6
28,298.8
2,509.9
60.3
2008-II
174,901.7
112,944.5
105,125.0
7,819.5
30,720.0
4,616.1
443.5
25,073.7
586.6
31,180.5
28,620.1
2,560.3
56.7
2008-III
175,734.6
113,418.7
105,583.3
7,835.4
30,773.3
4,481.9
450.0
25,253.9
587.5
31,489.2
28,969.7
2,519.4
53.4
2008-IV
177,327.2
114,476.5
106,596.0
7,880.5
30,931.2
4,491.4
455.5
25,402.8
581.6
31,870.4
29,323.1
2,547.3
49.1

2009-I
186,589.9
120,366.0
112,163.6
8,202.5
32,421.5
4,750.8
465.0
26,592.4
613.4
33,741.8
31,021.1
2,720.7
60.6
2009-II
188,454.5
121,584.7
113,346.3
8,238.4
32,742.3
4,801.2
458.3
26,859.6
623.2
34,070.5
31,295.2
2,775.3
57.0
2009-III
189,441.6
122,234.5
113,981.3
8,253.2
32,819.2
4,656.6
464.9
27,074.2
623.5
34,334.3
31,603.1
2,731.1
53.7
2009-IV
191,317.6
123,576.5
115,275.9
8,300.5
33,013.0
4,665.5
470.2
27,260.7
616.6
34,678.9
31,917.7
2,761.2
49.3

2010-I
201,311.0
129,971.8
121,339.4
8,632.3
34,610.8
4,930.6
479.5
28,552.0
648.7
36,667.5
33,719.3
2,948.2
60.9
2010-II
203,120.2
131,081.6
122,415.0
8,666.6
34,946.6
4,983.0
472.7
28,832.2
658.7
37,034.7
34,027.8
3,007.0
57.3
2010-III
204,124.8
131,710.3
123,031.7
8,678.6
35,030.6
4,831.5
479.6
29,060.8
658.7
37,329.9
34,371.0
2,958.9
54.0
2010-IV
206,296.8
133,298.4
124,573.5
8,725.0
35,237.8
4,840.7
485.1
29,260.8
651.2
37,711.0
34,720.0
2,991.0
49.6

1 Less than $50,000.

Sources:

All detail columns projected by methods described in text and in earlier tables describing projections for the intermediate set of assumptions.

Totals and subtotals computed by addition of corresponding detail.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report high-cost set of assumptions.


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December 26, 2001