ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 117
The following table presents the plot points for
Figure IV.1--Total Fertility Rate, Calendar Years 1917-2078
Plot points--Historical
Year
Actual
1917
3.3333
1918
3.3122
1919
3.0677
1920
3.2633
1921
3.3262
1922
3.1094
1923
3.1012
1924
3.1207
1925
3.0116
1926
2.9007
1927
2.8243
1928
2.6598
1929
2.5320
1930
2.5325
1931
2.4017
1932
2.3186
1933
2.1720
1934
2.2320
1935
2.1887
1936
2.1456
1937
2.1733
1938
2.2217
1939
2.1717
1940
2.2290
1941
2.3315
1942
2.5548
1943
2.6402
1944
2.4945
1945
2.4218
1946
2.8579
1947
3.1812
1948
3.0262
1949
3.0362
1950
3.0280
1951
3.1991
1952
3.2865
1953
3.3494
1954
3.4612
1955
3.4983
1956
3.6047
1957
3.6824
1958
3.6289
1959
3.6382
1960
3.6057
1961
3.5639
1962
3.4233
1963
3.2978
1964
3.1709
1965
2.8816
1966
2.6704
1967
2.5255
1968
2.4310
1969
2.4229
1970
2.4317
1971
2.2454
1972
1.9936
1973
1.8625
1974
1.8244
1975
1.7703
1976
1.7448
1977
1.7950
1978
1.7644
1979
1.8167
1980
1.8195
1981
1.8048
1982
1.8136
1983
1.7828
1984
1.7922
1985
1.8434
1986
1.8347
1987
1.8648
1988
1.9220
1989
1.9988
1990
2.0681
1991
2.0582
1992
2.0427
1993
2.0181
1994
2.0023
1995
1.9809
1996
1.9799
1997
1.9737
1998
2.0022
1999
2.0084
2000
2.0557
2001
2.0284
2002
2.0069
Plot points--Projected
Year
Expected
Alternative II
95%
Confidence Interval
for annual values
95%
Confidence Interval
for cumulative average
Lower bound
Upper bound
Lower bound
Upper bound
2003
2.0195
—
—
—
—
2004
2.0167
1.8424
2.1951
1.8424
2.1951
2005
2.0139
1.7266
2.3095
1.7958
2.2430
2006
2.0112
1.6428
2.3718
1.7620
2.2668
2007
2.0084
1.5798
2.4256
1.7291
2.2912
2008
2.0056
1.5082
2.4830
1.6974
2.3161
2009
2.0028
1.4414
2.5480
1.6555
2.3476
2010
2.0000
1.3756
2.6195
1.6230
2.3825
2011
1.9973
1.3210
2.6761
1.5911
2.4105
2012
1.9945
1.2558
2.7218
1.5658
2.4321
2013
1.9917
1.2019
2.7611
1.5348
2.4582
2014
1.9889
1.1503
2.8052
1.5086
2.4819
2015
1.9861
1.1131
2.8462
1.4888
2.4992
2016
1.9833
1.0759
2.8789
1.4625
2.5180
2017
1.9806
1.0604
2.8915
1.4400
2.5354
2018
1.9778
1.0339
2.9074
1.4230
2.5483
2019
1.9750
1.0070
2.9261
1.4057
2.5667
2020
1.9723
0.9840
2.9548
1.3897
2.5775
2021
1.9695
0.9660
2.9358
1.3821
2.5856
2022
1.9667
0.9632
2.9446
1.3690
2.5944
2023
1.9639
0.9703
2.9521
1.3617
2.5994
2024
1.9611
0.9858
2.9662
1.3529
2.6025
2025
1.9584
0.9803
2.9488
1.3480
2.6040
2026
1.9556
0.9822
2.9394
1.3464
2.6098
2027
1.9528
0.9628
2.9247
1.3472
2.6081
2028
1.9500
0.9592
2.9457
1.3480
2.6049
2029
1.9500
0.9429
2.9386
1.3504
2.6032
2030
1.9500
0.9486
2.9435
1.3527
2.6005
2031
1.9500
0.9606
2.9215
1.3539
2.5886
2032
1.9500
0.9729
2.9449
1.3599
2.5870
2033
1.9500
0.9673
2.9588
1.3619
2.5787
2034
1.9500
0.9631
2.9513
1.3700
2.5683
2035
1.9500
0.9527
2.9607
1.3772
2.5548
2036
1.9500
0.9380
2.9699
1.3880
2.5416
2037
1.9500
0.9086
2.9985
1.3953
2.5318
2038
1.9500
0.8905
3.0048
1.4033
2.5225
2039
1.9500
0.9038
2.9912
1.4120
2.5126
2040
1.9500
0.8942
3.0043
1.4213
2.5035
2041
1.9500
0.8890
3.0112
1.4299
2.4904
2042
1.9500
0.8850
3.0298
1.4392
2.4797
2043
1.9500
0.8905
3.0218
1.4507
2.4680
2044
1.9500
0.8813
3.0305
1.4635
2.4622
2045
1.9500
0.8904
3.0320
1.4682
2.4501
2046
1.9500
0.8952
3.0207
1.4796
2.4434
2047
1.9500
0.8997
3.0293
1.4890
2.4316
2048
1.9500
0.8757
3.0269
1.4949
2.4268
2049
1.9500
0.8655
3.0199
1.5083
2.4199
2050
1.9500
0.8738
3.0277
1.5149
2.4064
2051
1.9500
0.8809
3.0193
1.5266
2.3975
2052
1.9500
0.8849
3.0231
1.5332
2.3921
2053
1.9500
0.8752
3.0406
1.5415
2.3857
2054
1.9500
0.8868
3.0379
1.5475
2.3788
2055
1.9500
0.8698
3.0596
1.5526
2.3738
2056
1.9500
0.9011
3.0527
1.5581
2.3666
2057
1.9500
0.8895
3.0548
1.5612
2.3605
2058
1.9500
0.8891
3.0638
1.5618
2.3567
2059
1.9500
0.8709
3.0641
1.5659
2.3515
2060
1.9500
0.8503
3.0707
1.5741
2.3460
2061
1.9500
0.8664
3.0510
1.5753
2.3436
2062
1.9500
0.8815
3.0449
1.5796
2.3401
2063
1.9500
0.8872
3.0538
1.5824
2.3390
2064
1.9500
0.8723
3.0436
1.5829
2.3371
2065
1.9500
0.8837
3.0479
1.5840
2.3349
2066
1.9500
0.8948
3.0513
1.5872
2.3330
2067
1.9500
0.8733
3.0535
1.5847
2.3279
2068
1.9500
0.8761
3.0412
1.5846
2.3227
2069
1.9500
0.8838
3.0712
1.5870
2.3216
2070
1.9500
0.8711
3.0621
1.5901
2.3203
2071
1.9500
0.8448
3.0636
1.5912
2.3197
2072
1.9500
0.8314
3.0607
1.5924
2.3183
2073
1.9500
0.8213
3.0538
1.5940
2.3151
2074
1.9500
0.8077
3.0556
1.5970
2.3133
2075
1.9500
0.8136
3.0507
1.5983
2.3126
2076
1.9500
0.7943
3.0536
1.6016
2.3110
2077
1.9500
0.8155
3.0466
1.6048
2.3080
2078
1.9500
0.8189
3.0700
1.6061
2.3077