ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 117
The following table presents the plot points for Figure IV.13--
Male Disability Incidence Rate, Calendar Years 1970-2078

Plot points--Historical
Year
Actual
1970
5.290
1971
5.830
1972
6.600
1973
7.770
1974
8.310
1975
7.940
1976
7.580
1977
6.510
1978
6.320
1979
5.660
1980
5.420
1981
4.670
1982
4.220
1983
4.620
1984
4.850
1985
5.100
1986
5.130
1987
5.040
1988
4.940
1989
4.930
1990
4.980
1991
5.560
1992
6.410
1993
6.200
1994
6.030
1995
5.640
1996
5.320
1997
4.780
1998
4.750
1999
4.730
2000
4.610
2001
4.970
2002
5.260
2003
5.340

Plot points--Projected
Year
Expected
Alternative II
95%
Confidence Interval
for annual values
95%
Confidence Interval
for cumulative average
Lower bound
Upper bound
Lower bound
Upper bound
2004
5.258
4.538
5.966
4.538
5.966
2005
5.239
3.978
6.542
4.293
6.220
2006
5.288
3.624
7.022
4.120
6.427
2007
5.331
3.361
7.267
4.004
6.594
2008
5.375
3.306
7.427
3.942
6.685
2009
5.403
3.339
7.478
3.915
6.732
2010
5.428
3.341
7.449
3.939
6.770
2011
5.461
3.423
7.499
3.974
6.735
2012
5.497
3.453
7.561
4.025
6.682
2013
5.534
3.461
7.625
4.085
6.649
2014
5.595
3.452
7.711
4.152
6.619
2015
5.656
3.506
7.801
4.213
6.597
2016
5.719
3.583
7.795
4.278
6.563
2017
5.783
3.646
7.901
4.337
6.539
2018
5.843
3.734
7.928
4.402
6.520
2019
5.903
3.840
7.976
4.475
6.500
2020
5.963
3.869
7.976
4.534
6.501
2021
6.042
3.929
8.035
4.588
6.512
2022
6.122
4.007
8.108
4.656
6.518
2023
6.202
4.068
8.171
4.713
6.505
2024
6.215
4.088
8.283
4.767
6.508
2025
6.228
4.081
8.321
4.813
6.524
2026
6.244
4.168
8.374
4.858
6.535
2027
6.244
4.109
8.408
4.882
6.544
2028
6.245
4.086
8.386
4.909
6.548
2029
6.247
4.050
8.449
4.946
6.560
2030
6.247
4.125
8.531
4.977
6.575
2031
6.246
4.113
8.503
4.999
6.589
2032
6.244
4.134
8.392
5.023
6.599
2033
6.241
4.117
8.367
5.053
6.612
2034
6.239
4.173
8.376
5.082
6.609
2035
6.238
4.169
8.367
5.110
6.611
2036
6.239
4.117
8.322
5.137
6.613
2037
6.244
4.154
8.364
5.158
6.602
2038
6.246
4.158
8.434
5.177
6.604
2039
6.248
4.155
8.404
5.193
6.606
2040
6.248
4.162
8.398
5.212
6.604
2041
6.248
4.151
8.404
5.235
6.609
2042
6.248
4.154
8.364
5.254
6.615
2043
6.247
4.175
8.379
5.269
6.623
2044
6.246
4.194
8.370
5.274
6.622
2045
6.244
4.164
8.372
5.297
6.614
2046
6.244
4.154
8.345
5.311
6.615
2047
6.246
4.156
8.345
5.329
6.608
2048
6.248
4.172
8.348
5.348
6.606
2049
6.250
4.145
8.379
5.358
6.600
2050
6.250
4.029
8.407
5.368
6.598
2051
6.248
4.081
8.456
5.378
6.605
2052
6.250
4.128
8.401
5.383
6.599
2053
6.249
4.090
8.380
5.390
6.594
2054
6.248
4.086
8.381
5.400
6.593
2055
6.246
4.105
8.336
5.405
6.589
2056
6.242
4.092
8.321
5.413
6.594
2057
6.244
4.103
8.328
5.431
6.594
2058
6.245
4.100
8.437
5.443
6.604
2059
6.248
4.101
8.384
5.451
6.603
2060
6.249
4.109
8.391
5.464
6.596
2061
6.248
4.099
8.373
5.473
6.594
2062
6.248
4.084
8.371
5.481
6.587
2063
6.246
4.070
8.337
5.489
6.585
2064
6.244
4.021
8.380
5.501
6.582
2065
6.243
4.027
8.324
5.499
6.576
2066
6.246
4.050
8.316
5.504
6.572
2067
6.246
4.068
8.297
5.509
6.570
2068
6.246
4.084
8.347
5.512
6.573
2069
6.246
4.026
8.315
5.519
6.574
2070
6.247
4.050
8.346
5.527
6.571
2071
6.247
4.104
8.369
5.530
6.571
2072
6.247
4.133
8.386
5.542
6.569
2073
6.247
4.161
8.365
5.547
6.567
2074
6.247
4.199
8.343
5.557
6.565
2075
6.247
4.140
8.298
5.563
6.566
2076
6.247
4.154
8.299
5.570
6.561
2077
6.247
4.155
8.377
5.575
6.561
2078
6.247
4.127
8.420
5.578
6.561