2006 OASDI Trustees Report

Contents Previous Next List of Tables List of Figures Index

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING
ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

The future income and cost of the OASDI program will depend on many demographic, economic, and program-specific factors. Trust fund income will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the working population and the level and distribution of earnings. Similarly, program cost will depend on how these factors affect the size and composition of the beneficiary population and the general level of benefits.

Basic assumptions are developed for several of these factors based on analysis of historical trends and conditions, and on expected future conditions. These factors include fertility, mortality, immigration, marriage, divorce, productivity, inflation, average earnings, unemployment, retirement, and disability incidence and termination. Other factors are projected using methods that reflect historical and expected future relationships to the basic assumptions. These include total population, life expectancy, labor force, gross domestic product, interest rates, and many program-specific factors. It should be noted that all factors included in any consistent set of assumptions are interrelated directly or indirectly. It is also important to note that these interrelationships can and do change over time.

The assumptions and methods used in this report are reexamined each year in light of recent experience and new information about future conditions, and are revised if warranted.

Because projections of these factors and their interrelationships are inherently uncertain, a range of estimates is shown in this report on the basis of three sets of assumptions, designated as intermediate (alternative II), low cost (alternative I), and high cost (alternative III). The intermediate set represents the Board's best estimate of the future course of the population and the economy. In terms of the net effect on the status of the OASDI program, the low cost is the most optimistic, and the high cost is the most pessimistic. The low and high cost sets of assumptions reflect significant potential changes in the interrelationship among factors, as well as changes in the values for individual factors. The probability is very low that all the assumptions and interactions would differ in the same direction from those expected. Outcomes with overall cost as low as (or lower than) the low cost scenario or as high as (or higher than) the high cost scenario are also very low probability.

Although these three sets of demographic and economic assumptions have been developed to provide a broad range of possible outcomes, the resulting estimates should be interpreted with care. The estimates are not intended to be specific predictions of the future financial status of the OASDI program, but rather, they are intended to be indicators of the expected trend and a reasonable range of future income and cost, under a variety of plausible demographic and economic conditions.

The values for each of the demographic, economic, and program-specific factors are assumed to move from recently experienced levels or trends, toward long-range ultimate values generally over the next 2 to 25 years. Ultimate values or trends reached by the end of the 75-year long-range period are generally maintained at these levels or trends for extrapolations beyond 75 years. One exception is for real wage growth, as described in section IV.B.5.

The ultimate values assumed after the first 2 to 25 years (and through the end of the 75-year long-range period) for both the demographic and the economic factors are intended to represent average annual experience or growth rates. Actual future values will exhibit fluctuations or cyclical patterns, as in the past.

The following sections discuss in abbreviated form the various assumptions and methods required to make the estimates of trust fund financial status which are the heart of this report.1 There are, of course, many interrelationships among these factors that make a sequential presentation somewhat misleading. Nevertheless, the following sections roughly follow the order used in building the trust fund estimates presented in chapter IV.

A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

The principal demographic assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and net immigration for the three alternatives are shown in table V.A1. The rationales for selecting these assumptions are discussed in the following three sections.

1. Fertility Assumptions

Fertility (birth rate) assumptions are developed for women by single year of age, from 14 to 49. They are applied to the total number of women in the population at each age, for all marital statuses.

Historically, fertility rates in the United States have fluctuated widely. The total fertility rate2 decreased from 3.3 children per woman after World War I to 2.1 during the Great Depression, rose to 3.7 in 1957, and then fell to 1.7 in 1976. After 1976, the total fertility rate began to rise again, reaching a level of 2.07 for 1990. Since then, the total fertility rate has remained fairly stable, around 2.0 children per woman.

These variations in fertility rates have resulted from changes in many factors, including social attitudes, economic conditions, and the use of birth-control methods. Future fertility rates may be expected to remain close to recent levels. The recent historical and projected trends in certain population characteristics, such as the rising percentages of women who have never married, of women who are divorced, and of young women who are in the labor force, are consistent with a continued relatively low fertility rate. Based on consideration of these factors, ultimate total fertility rates of 2.3, 2.0 and 1.7 children per woman were selected for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively. For each alternative, the total fertility rate is assumed to gradually trend from the estimated level of 2.05 for 2003, reaching the selected ultimate level for 2030 and later.

The ultimate total fertility rates for the intermediate and low cost assumptions are increased from the rates of 1.95 and 2.2 children per woman, respectively, in last year's report. The ultimate total fertility rate for the high cost assumption is unchanged from last year's report. The increase in the ultimate total fertility rates for the intermediate and low cost assumptions is based primarily on the persistently higher than previously assumed levels of total fertility rates in recent years. Since 1990, the total fertility rate has been at least 2.0 children per woman in all but three years and never below 1.97 children per woman.

In addition, total fertility rates for years prior to 2030 are slightly higher than in last year's report due to incorporating additional birth data for 2003 and revised population data for 2000-03. These recent birth and population data result in slightly higher starting levels that remain at higher levels through 2029.

2. Mortality Assumptions

Mortality (death rate) assumptions are developed by single year of age, sex, and cause of death.

Death rates in the United States since 1900 have declined substantially, but at varying rates. Historical rates (for years 1900-2002) used in preparing this report were calculated for ages below 65 (and for all ages prior to 1968) using data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).3 For ages 65 and over, Medicare final data were used for years 1968 through 2002. Also used are death rates by cause of death produced by the NCHS for years 1979-2002.

The total age-sex-adjusted death rate4 declined at an average rate5 of 1.05 percent per year between 1900 and 2002. Between 1979 and 2002, the period for which death rates are analyzed by cause, the total age-sex-adjusted death rate (for all causes combined) declined at an average rate of 0.71 percent per year.

Historical death rates have declined more slowly for older ages than for the rest of the population. The age-sex-adjusted death rate for ages 65 and over declined at an average rate of 0.72 percent per year between 1900 and 2002. Between 1979 and 2002 the age-sex-adjusted death rate for these ages declined at an average annual rate of 0.47 percent.

Reductions in death rates have resulted from many factors, including increased medical knowledge and availability of health-care services, and improvements in sanitation and nutrition. Based on consideration of the expected rate of future progress in these and other areas, three alternative sets of ultimate annual percentage reductions in central death rates by age, sex, and cause of death were selected for 2030 and later. The intermediate set, which is used for alternative II, is considered to be the most likely to occur. The average annual percentage reductions used for alternative I are generally smaller than those for alternative II, while those used for alternative III are generally greater. These three sets of ultimate annual percentage reductions are unchanged from those used in last year's report.

After 2002, the reductions in central death rates for alternative II are assumed to change rapidly from the average annual reductions by age, sex, and cause of death observed between 1982 and 2002, to the ultimate annual percentage reductions by age, sex, and cause of death assumed for 2030 and later. The reductions in death rates under alternatives I and III are also assumed to change rapidly to their ultimate levels, but start from levels which are, respectively, 50 or 150 percent of the average annual reductions observed between 1982 and 2002.

Projections of age-sex-adjusted death rates are presented in table V.A1 for the total (all ages), for under age 65, and for ages 65 and over. Under the intermediate assumptions, these projected age-sex-adjusted death rates are slightly higher than the death rates in last year's report. New data for 2002 results in age-sex-adjusted death rates throughout the projection period that are slightly higher than those in last year's report.

After adjustment for changes in the age-sex distribution of the population, the resulting total death rates are projected to decline at ultimate average annual rates of about 0.33 percent, 0.70 percent, and 1.22 percent between 2030 and 2080 for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. In keeping with the patterns observed in the historical data, future rates of decline are assumed to be greater for younger ages than for older ages, but to a substantially lesser degree than in the past. Accordingly, age-sex-adjusted death rates for ages 65 and over are projected to decline at average annual rates of about 0.29 percent, 0.67 percent, and 1.16 percent between 2030 and 2080 for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively.

There is a wide range of opinion among experts on the likely rate of future decline in death rates. For example, the 2003 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods appointed by the Social Security Advisory Board believed that ultimate rates of decline in mortality will be higher than the rates of decline assumed for the intermediate projections in this report. Others believe that biological and social factors may slow future rates of decline in mortality. Evolving mortality trends and developments in health care and life style will be closely monitored to determine what further modifications to the assumed ultimate rates of decline in mortality may be warranted for future reports.

3. Immigration Assumptions

Legal immigration6 increased after World War II to around 300,000 persons per year and remained around that level until shortly after 1960. With the Immigration Act of 1965 and other related changes, annual legal immigration increased to about 400,000 and remained fairly stable until 1977. Between 1977 and 1990, legal immigration once again increased, averaging about 580,0007 per year. The Immigration Act of 1990, which took effect in fiscal year 1992, restructured the immigration categories and increased significantly the number of immigrants who may legally enter the United States. Legal immigration averaged about 837,000 2 persons per year during the period 1992 through 2004. The number of legal immigrants in 2004 is estimated to be 946,000 persons.

For 2004, net legal immigration (after considering emigration) is estimated to be about 710,000 persons. Net other immigration is estimated to be 400,000 persons. For 2005, net legal immigration is estimated to be 675,000 for the intermediate, 720,000 for low cost and 630,000 for the high cost assumptions. Net other immigration for 2005 is estimated to be 400,000 persons for all three assumptions.

The ultimate annual net immigration assumptions are unchanged from those in last year's report. After 2005, the annual number of net legal immigrants is projected to reach the ultimate level in 2007. The ultimate level of annual net other immigrants is projected to be reached in 2026 under the intermediate and low cost assumptions and in 2016 under the high cost assumptions.

The total level of net immigration (legal and other, combined) under the intermediate projection is assumed to be 1,075,000 persons in 2006, and 900,000 persons8 in 2026 and for each year afterward. For the low cost assumptions, net immigration is assumed to increase slightly from a level of 1,270,000 persons in 2006 to an ultimate level of 1,300,000 persons9 for each year 2026 and later. Under the high cost assumptions, net immigration is assumed to be 810,000 persons in 2006, and 672,500 persons10 for each year after 2015.

There is a very wide range of opinion about the future course of immigration for the United States. Some, like the 2003 Technical Panel mentioned in the previous section, believe that immigration will increase substantially in the future. Others believe that potential immigrants may be attracted to other countries or that the U.S. borders could be tightened in the future.

Table V.A1.-Principal Demographic Assumptions, Calendar Years 1940-2080 
Calendar year
Total
fertility
rate1
 
Age-sex-adjusted death rate 2
per 100,000, by age
 
Net immigration
 
Total
Under 65
65 and over
Legal 3
Other 4
Historical data:
 
1940
2.23
 
1,779.1
673.0
9,569.0
 
45,950
 
 
1945
2.42
 
1,586.6
601.8
8,522.4
 
55,069
 
 
1950
3.03
 
1,435.6
499.4
8,028.3
 
170,594
 
 
1955
3.50
 
1,334.2
442.8
7,612.2
 
209,779
 
 
1960
3.61
 
1,330.9
436.9
7,626.7
 
201,276
 
 
1965
2.88
 
1,304.6
430.0
7,464.0
 
232,400
 
 
1970
2.43
 
1,224.3
422.6
6,870.7
 
278,928
 
 
1975
1.77
 
1,099.0
369.5
6,236.4
 
294,303
 
 
1980
1.82
 
1,035.9
331.9
5,993.6
 
410,348
375,000
 
1985
1.84
 
984.2
303.6
5,777.6
 
433,449
375,000
 
1990
2.07
 
931.2
289.4
5,451.1
 
501,065
550,000
                   
 
1991
2.06
 
918.8
286.2
5,373.5
 
548,000
550,000
 
1992
2.04
 
906.2
280.2
5,315.3
 
620,986
550,000
 
1993
2.02
 
928.0
283.1
5,470.0
 
644,696
550,000
 
1994
2.00
 
916.2
280.5
5,392.7
 
583,390
550,000
 
1995
1.98
 
913.9
277.3
5,397.5
 
573,719
550,000
 
1996
1.98
 
900.4
266.1
5,367.2
 
662,284
550,000
 
1997
1.97
 
885.1
253.6
5,332.5
 
571,800
550,000
 
1998
2.00
 
878.3
246.9
5,325.2
 
489,360
550,000
 
1999
2.01
 
884.3
245.0
5,386.6
 
523,037
550,000
 
2000
2.06
 
875.6
243.4
5,328.3
 
677,579
550,000
 
2001
2.03
 
867.4
243.6
5,260.7
 
798,126
550,000
 
2002
2.02
 
863.6
242.7
5,236.6
 
730,689
550,000
 
20035/
2.05
 
860.6
234.1
5,272.2
 
574,429
550,000
 
20045
2.04
 
856.4
231.3
5,258.7
 
709,606
400,000
 
20055/
2.03
 
852.5
228.6
5,246.9
 
675,000
400,000
Intermediate:
 
2010
2.03
 
829.2
216.4
5,145.1
 
600,000
400,000
 
2015
2.02
 
798.7
205.9
4,974.0
 
600,000
400,000
 
2020
2.01
 
767.1
196.2
4,787.2
 
600,000
350,000
 
2025
2.01
 
736.4
187.3
4,604.0
 
600,000
350,000
 
2030
2.00
 
707.4
178.9
4,429.7
 
600,000
300,000
 
2035
2.00
 
680.1
171.0
4,265.4
 
600,000
300,000
 
2040
2.00
 
654.5
163.6
4,111.7
 
600,000
300,000
 
2045
2.00
 
630.6
156.7
3,967.5
 
600,000
300,000
 
2050
2.00
 
608.0
150.2
3,832.2
 
600,000
300,000
 
2055
2.00
 
586.8
144.1
3,705.0
 
600,000
300,000
 
2060
2.00
 
566.9
138.3
3,585.3
 
600,000
300,000
 
2065
2.00
 
548.1
132.8
3,472.5
 
600,000
300,000
 
2070
2.00
 
530.3
127.6
3,366.1
 
600,000
300,000
 
2075
2.00
 
513.5
122.8
3,265.5
 
600,000
300,000
 
2080
2.00
 
497.6
118.1
3,170.4
 
600,000
300,000
Low Cost:
 
2010
2.11
 
854.4
223.3
5,298.9
 
850,000
550,000
 
2015
2.15
 
844.5
217.6
5,259.4
 
850,000
550,000
 
2020
2.20
 
830.7
211.9
5,188.8
 
850,000
500,000
 
2025
2.25
 
816.0
206.3
5,109.8
 
850,000
500,000
 
2030
2.30
 
801.3
200.9
5,029.8
 
850,000
450,000
 
2035
2.30
 
787.0
195.8
4,951.1
 
850,000
450,000
 
2040
2.30
 
773.3
190.8
4,875.2
 
850,000
450,000
 
2045
2.30
 
760.0
186.1
4,802.0
 
850,000
450,000
 
2050
2.30
 
747.3
181.6
4,731.4
 
850,000
450,000
 
2055
2.30
 
735.0
177.2
4,663.3
 
850,000
450,000
 
2060
2.30
 
723.2
173.0
4,597.6
 
850,000
450,000
 
2065
2.30
 
711.8
169.0
4,534.1
 
850,000
450,000
 
2070
2.30
 
700.8
165.2
4,472.8
 
850,000
450,000
 
2075
2.30
 
690.2
161.4
4,413.6
 
850,000
450,000
 
2080
2.30
 
679.9
157.9
4,356.3
 
850,000
450,000
High Cost:
 
2010
1.95
 
803.3
208.7
4,990.5
 
472,500
250,000
 
2015
1.89
 
750.5
191.8
4,685.2
 
472,500
250,000
 
2020
1.82
 
699.5
176.6
4,381.6
 
472,500
200,000
 
2025
1.76
 
652.0
162.9
4,096.4
 
472,500
200,000
 
2030
1.70
 
608.4
150.4
3,833.4
 
472,500
200,000
 
2035
1.70
 
568.4
139.0
3,591.9
 
472,500
200,000
 
2040
1.70
 
531.8
128.7
3,371.1
 
472,500
200,000
 
2045
1.70
 
498.4
119.2
3,168.8
 
472,500
200,000
 
2050
1.70
 
467.7
110.5
2,983.2
 
472,500
200,000
 
2055
1.70
 
439.5
102.5
2,812.7
 
472,500
200,000
 
2060
1.70
 
413.6
95.2
2,655.8
 
472,500
200,000
 
2065
1.70
 
389.8
88.5
2,511.3
 
472,500
200,000
 
2070
1.70
 
367.8
82.3
2,378.0
 
472,500
200,000
 
2075
1.70
 
347.5
76.7
2,254.7
 
472,500
200,000
 
2080
1.70
 
328.7
71.4
2,140.7
 
472,500
200,000

1The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2030.

2The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2000, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

3Historical estimates of net legal immigration assume a 25 percent reduction in legal immigration due to legal emigration. Estimates do not include persons legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

4Net other annual immigration is estimated to have averaged 375,000 persons over the period 1980-89 and 550,000 over the period 1990-99.

5Preliminary or estimated.

4. Total Population Estimates

Combining the above assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and net immigration with assumptions on marriage and divorce based on data from the NCHS, projections were made of the population in the Social Security area by age, sex, and marital status as of January 1 of each year 2005 through 2080. The starting Social Security area population for January 1, 2004, is based on the Census Bureau's estimate of the residents of the 50 States and D.C., and U.S. Armed Forces overseas. The base estimate is adjusted for net census undercount and increased for other U.S. citizens living abroad (including residents of U.S. territories) and for non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social Security benefits. This starting population was then projected using assumed rates of birth, death, marriage and divorce, and assumed levels of net immigration.

Table V.A2 shows the historical and projected population as of July 1 by broad age group, for the three alternatives. Also shown are aged and total dependency ratios (see table footnotes for definitions).

Table V.A2.-Social Security Area Population as of July 1 and Dependency Ratios,
Calendar Years 1950-2080 
Calendar year
Population (in thousands)
 
Dependency ratio
Under 20
20-64
65 and
over
Total
Aged 1
Total 2
Historical data:
 
1950
54,466
92,841
12,811
160,118
 
0.138
0.725
 
1960
73,076
99,818
17,278
190,172
 
.173
.905
 
1965
80,132
104,795
19,091
204,018
 
.182
.947
 
1970
80,684
113,158
20,923
214,765
 
.185
.898
 
1975
78,437
122,857
23,305
224,599
 
.190
.828
 
1980
74,568
134,428
26,237
235,233
 
.195
.750
 
1985
73,211
144,957
29,167
247,335
 
.201
.706
 
1990
75,060
153,368
32,029
260,458
 
.209
.698
 
1995
79,621
160,844
34,322
274,786
 
.213
.708
 
2000
82,581
170,275
35,431
288,287
 
.208
.693
 
20053
83,963
181,457
36,902
302,323
 
.203
.666
Intermediate:
 
2010
84,895
190,083
39,762
314,741
 
.209
.656
 
2015
85,796
195,496
45,910
327,202
 
.235
.674
 
2020
87,547
198,213
53,510
339,269
 
.270
.712
 
2025
88,597
199,789
62,343
350,729
 
.312
.755
 
2030
90,133
200,644
70,017
360,794
 
.349
.798
 
2035
91,288
203,518
74,645
369,451
 
.367
.815
 
2040
92,268
207,416
77,172
376,856
 
.372
.817
 
2045
93,199
211,166
79,014
383,379
 
.374
.816
 
2050
94,318
213,935
81,257
389,510
 
.380
.821
 
2055
95,550
216,474
83,651
395,675
 
.386
.828
 
2060
96,760
218,777
86,543
402,079
 
.396
.838
 
2065
97,897
221,816
88,980
408,693
 
.401
.842
 
2070
98,968
224,244
92,103
415,315
 
.411
.852
 
2075
100,039
227,337
94,451
421,827
 
.415
.856
 
2080
101,159
230,137
96,918
428,214
 
.421
.861
Low Cost:
 
2010
85,973
191,168
39,692
316,833
 
0.208
0.657
 
2015
88,679
197,977
45,601
332,257
 
.230
.678
 
2020
92,960
202,147
52,815
347,922
 
.261
.721
 
2025
97,235
205,286
61,098
363,618
 
.298
.771
 
2030
102,342
208,219
68,059
378,621
 
.327
.818
 
2035
107,043
213,877
71,892
392,811
 
.336
.837
 
2040
111,418
221,232
73,670
406,320
 
.333
.837
 
2045
115,772
229,058
74,965
419,795
 
.327
.833
 
2050
120,368
236,575
76,931
433,874
 
.325
.834
 
2055
125,278
244,420
79,252
448,950
 
.324
.837
 
2060
130,437
252,563
82,088
465,088
 
.325
.841
 
2065
135,597
262,150
84,373
482,120
 
.322
.839
 
2070
140,681
271,923
87,226
499,830
 
.321
.838
 
2075
145,804
282,746
89,634
518,184
 
.317
.833
 
2080
151,116
293,433
92,711
537,259
 
.316
.831
High Cost:
 
2010
83,919
189,254
39,854
313,027
 
.211
.654
 
2015
83,222
193,753
46,302
323,277
 
.239
.669
 
2020
82,716
195,532
54,398
332,646
 
.278
.701
 
2025
80,894
196,074
63,956
340,924
 
.326
.739
 
2030
79,403
195,523
72,591
347,517
 
.371
.777
 
2035
77,668
196,363
78,331
352,363
 
.399
.794
 
2040
76,040
197,608
81,995
355,644
 
.415
.800
 
2045
74,518
198,124
84,844
357,486
 
.428
.804
 
2050
73,323
197,061
87,860
358,244
 
.446
.818
 
2055
72,209
195,349
90,799
358,358
 
.465
.834
 
2060
70,946
193,039
94,181
358,166
 
.488
.855
 
2065
69,654
190,977
97,158
357,790
 
.509
.873
 
2070
68,427
187,736
100,942
357,105
 
.538
.902
 
2075
67,308
185,048
103,612
355,968
 
.560
.924
 
2080
66,274
182,183
105,844
354,301
 
.581
.945

1Population aged 65 and over, divided by population aged 20-64.

2Sum of population aged 65 and over, and population under age 20, divided by population aged 20-64.

3Preliminary or estimated.

Notes:
1. Historical data are subject to revision.

2. Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

5. Life Expectancy Estimates

Life expectancy, or average remaining number of years expected prior to death, is a useful analytical concept. Life expectancy is calculated in two different forms, for two separate purposes.

Period life expectancy is calculated for a given year using the actual or expected death rates at each age for that year. It is a useful summary statistic for illustrating the overall level of the death rates experienced in a single year. It is thus closely related to the age-sex-adjusted death rate that is discussed in section V.A.2. Period life expectancy for a particular year may be viewed as the expected remaining life at a selected age only if it is assumed that there is no change in death rates after that year.

Cohort life expectancy truly answers the question "What is the expected average remaining lifetime for an individual at a selected age in a given year?" Cohort life expectancy is calculated using death rates not from a single year, but from the series of years in which the individual will actually reach each succeeding age if he or she survives. Cohort life expectancy is shown in table V.A4 for those born on January 1 of each calendar year, and for those attaining age 65 on January 1 of each calendar year.

Tables V.A3 and V.A4 present historical and projected life expectancy calculated on both period and cohort bases. Cohort life expectancy is somewhat greater than period life expectancy for the same year. This is because death rates for any given age tend to decline as time passes and the cohort grows older.

Table V.A3.-Period Life Expectancy 1
Calendar
year
Low Cost
 
Intermediate
 
High Cost
At birth
 
At age 65
At birth
 
At age 65
At birth
 
At age 65
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Historical data:
 
1940
           
61.4
65.7
 
11.9
13.4
           
 
1945
           
62.9
68.4
 
12.6
14.4
           
 
1950
           
65.6
71.1
 
12.8
15.1
           
 
1955
         
66.7
72.8
 
13.1
15.6
           
 
1960
           
66.7
73.2
 
12.9
15.9
           
 
1965
           
66.8
73.8
 
12.9
16.3
           
 
1970
           
67.1
74.9
 
13.1
17.1
           
 
1975
           
68.7
76.6
 
13.7
18.0
           
 
1980
           
69.9
77.5
 
14.0
18.4
           
 
1985
           
71.1
78.2
 
14.4
18.6
           
 
1990
           
71.8
78.9
 
15.1
19.1
           
 
 
1991
           
72.0
79.0
 
15.2
19.2
           
 
1992
           
72.3
79.2
 
15.3
19.3
           
 
1993
           
72.1
79.0
 
15.2
19.0
           
 
1994
           
72.3
79.1
 
15.3
19.1
           
 
1995
           
72.5
79.1
 
15.4
19.1
           
 
1996
           
73.0
79.2
 
15.5
19.1
           
 
1997
           
73.4
79.4
 
15.6
19.1
           
 
1998
           
73.7
79.4
 
15.7
19.1
           
 
1999
           
73.8
79.3
 
15.7
19.0
           
 
2000
           
74.0
79.4
 
15.9
19.0
           
 
2001
           
74.1
79.5
 
16.1
19.1
           
 
2002 
           
74.2
79.5
 
16.2
19.1
           
 
2003 2
           
74.5
79.5
 
16.2
19.0
           
 
2004 2
           
74.7
79.6
 
16.2
19.0
           
 
2005 2
           
74.8
79.6
 
16.3
19.0
           
Projected:
 
2010
75.1
79.6
 
16.4
18.9
 
75.5
79.9
 
16.6
19.1
 
75.9
80.2
 
16.9
19.4
 
2015
75.4
79.7
 
16.5
19.0
 
76.0
80.3
 
17.0
19.4
 
76.8
81.0
 
17.4
19.8
 
2020
75.6
79.9
 
16.6
19.1
 
76.6
80.7
 
17.3
19.7
 
77.7
81.7
 
18.0
20.3
 
2025
75.9
80.2
 
16.8
19.2
 
77.1
81.2
 
17.6
20.0
 
78.6
82.4
 
18.5
20.9
 
2030
76.2
80.4
 
16.9
19.3
 
77.6
81.6
 
17.9
20.2
 
79.4
83.1
 
19.0
21.4
 
2035
76.4
80.6
 
17.0
19.4
 
78.1
82.0
 
18.2
20.5
 
80.2
83.8
 
19.5
21.9
 
2040
76.7
80.8
 
17.1
19.5
 
78.5
82.4
 
18.4
20.8
 
80.9
84.5
 
20.0
22.4
 
2045
76.9
81.0
 
17.2
19.6
 
79.0
82.8
 
18.7
21.1
 
81.7
85.1
 
20.5
22.8
 
2050
77.2
81.1
 
17.3
19.8
 
79.4
83.1
 
19.0
21.3
 
82.4
85.8
 
21.0
23.3
 
2055
77.4
81.3
 
17.5
19.9
 
79.8
83.5
 
19.3
21.6
 
83.1
86.4
 
21.5
23.8
 
2060
77.6
81.5
 
17.6
20.0
 
80.3
83.9
 
19.5
21.9
 
83.7
86.9
 
22.0
24.2
 
2065
77.8
81.7
 
17.7
20.1
 
80.7
84.2
 
19.8
22.1
 
84.4
87.5
 
22.4
24.6
 
2070
78.0
81.8
 
17.8
20.2
 
81.0
84.5
 
20.0
22.3
 
85.0
88.0
 
22.8
25.1
 
2075
78.2
82.0
 
17.9
20.3
 
81.4
84.8
 
20.3
22.6
 
85.6
88.6
 
23.3
25.5
 
2080
78.4
82.2
 
18.0
20.4
 
81.8
85.1
 
20.5
22.8
 
86.2
89.1
 
23.7
25.9

1The period life expectancy at a given age for a given year represents the average number of years of life remaining if a group of persons at that age were to experience the mortality rates for that year over the course of their remaining lives.

2Preliminary or estimated.

Table V.A4.-Cohort Life Expectancy 1
Calendar
year
Low Cost
 
Intermediate
 
High Cost
At birth2
 
At age 65  3
At birth2
 
At age 65 3
At birth2
 
At age 65  3
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
1940
69.3
75.3
 
12.7
14.7
 
69.6
75.7
 
12.7
14.7
 
70.0
76.2
 
12.7
14.7
1945
70.8
76.6
 
13.0
15.4
 
71.3
77.2
 
13.0
15.4
 
71.9
78.0
 
13.0
15.4
1950
71.8
77.6
 
13.1
16.2
 
72.5
78.4
 
13.1
16.2
 
73.4
79.4
 
13.1
16.2
1955
72.3
78.0
 
13.1
16.7
 
73.2
79.0
 
13.1
16.7
 
74.4
80.3
 
13.1
16.7
1960
72.8
78.3
 
13.2
17.4
 
73.9
79.5
 
13.2
17.4
 
75.4
81.1
 
13.2
17.4
1965
73.4
78.6
 
13.5
18.0
 
74.8
80.1
 
13.5
18.0
 
76.6
81.9
 
13.5
18.0
1970
74.2
79.2
 
13.8
18.5
 
75.9
80.8
 
13.8
18.5
 
78.0
83.0
 
13.8
18.5
1975
74.9
79.7
 
14.2
18.7
 
76.8
81.5
 
14.2
18.7
 
79.2
84.0
 
14.2
18.7
1980
75.6
80.1
 
14.7
18.7
 
77.7
82.2
 
14.7
18.7
 
80.5
84.9
 
14.7
18.7
1985
76.0
80.5
 
15.2
18.8
 
78.4
82.7
 
15.2
18.8
 
81.5
85.8
 
15.2
18.9
1990
76.4
80.8
 
15.6
18.8
 
79.0
83.2
 
15.7
19.0
 
82.4
86.5
 
15.8
19.1
 
1991
76.5
80.8
 
15.7
18.8
 
79.1
83.3
 
15.8
19.0
 
82.6
86.7
 
15.9
19.1
1992
76.6
80.9
 
15.8
18.8
 
79.2
83.4
 
15.9
19.0
 
82.8
86.8
 
16.0
19.2
1993
76.6
80.9
 
15.9
18.9
 
79.3
83.5
 
16.0
19.0
 
83.0
87.0
 
16.1
19.2
1994
76.7
81.0
 
15.9
18.9
 
79.5
83.6
 
16.1
19.1
 
83.2
87.1
 
16.2
19.3
1995
76.8
81.1
 
16.0
18.9
 
79.6
83.7
 
16.2
19.1
 
83.4
87.3
 
16.3
19.4
1996
76.9
81.1
 
16.1
18.9
 
79.7
83.8
 
16.3
19.2
 
83.6
87.4
 
16.5
19.4
1997
76.9
81.2
 
16.2
18.9
 
79.8
83.9
 
16.4
19.2
 
83.7
87.6
 
16.6
19.5
1998
77.0
81.2
 
16.2
18.9
 
79.9
83.9
 
16.5
19.3
 
83.9
87.7
 
16.7
19.6
1999
77.0
81.3
 
16.3
18.9
 
80.0
84.0
 
16.6
19.3
 
84.0
87.8
 
16.9
19.7
2000 
77.1
81.3
 
16.4
19.0
 
80.1
84.1
 
16.7
19.4
 
84.2
88.0
 
17.0
19.8
2001 
77.2
81.3
 
16.4
19.0
 
80.2
84.2
 
16.7
19.4
 
84.3
88.1
 
17.1
19.9
2002 
77.2
81.4
 
16.4
19.0
 
80.2
84.2
 
16.8
19.5
 
84.5
88.2
 
17.2
20.0
2003
77.3
81.4
 
16.5
19.0
 
80.4
84.3
 
16.9
19.5
 
84.6
88.4
 
17.3
20.1
2004
77.3
81.5
 
16.5
19.0
 
80.5
84.4
 
17.0
19.6
 
84.8
88.5
 
17.5
20.2
2005
77.4
81.5
 
16.5
19.0
 
80.6
84.5
 
17.0
19.6
 
85.0
88.6
 
17.6
20.3
 
2010
77.6
81.7
 
16.7
19.1
 
81.0
84.9
 
17.4
19.9
 
85.7
89.3
 
18.2
20.8
2015
77.9
81.9
 
16.8
19.3
 
81.4
85.2
 
17.7
20.2
 
86.4
89.9
 
18.8
21.3
2020
78.1
82.1
 
16.9
19.4
 
81.9
85.5
 
18.0
20.5
 
87.1
90.4
 
19.3
21.9
2025
78.3
82.2
 
17.0
19.5
 
82.2
85.9
 
18.3
20.8
 
87.7
91.0
 
19.9
22.4
2030
78.5
82.4
 
17.2
19.6
 
82.6
86.2
 
18.6
21.1
 
88.3
91.5
 
20.4
22.9
2035
78.7
82.6
 
17.3
19.7
 
83.0
86.5
 
18.9
21.4
 
88.9
92.0
 
21.0
23.4
2040
78.9
82.7
 
17.4
19.8
 
83.3
86.8
 
19.2
21.6
 
89.5
92.5
 
21.5
23.9
2045
79.1
82.9
 
17.5
20.0
 
83.7
87.1
 
19.4
21.9
 
90.0
93.0
 
22.0
24.4
2050
79.3
83.0
 
17.6
20.1
 
84.0
87.4
 
19.7
22.1
 
90.6
93.4
 
22.5
24.9
2055
79.5
83.2
 
17.7
20.2
 
84.4
87.6
 
20.0
22.4
 
91.1
93.9
 
22.9
25.3
2060
79.7
83.3
 
17.8
20.3
 
84.7
87.9
 
20.2
22.6
 
91.6
94.3
 
23.4
25.8
2065
79.9
83.4
 
17.9
20.4
 
85.0
88.1
 
20.5
22.9
 
92.1
94.8
 
23.9
26.2
2070
80.0
83.6
 
18.0
20.5
 
85.3
88.4
 
20.7
23.1
 
92.5
95.2
 
24.3
26.6
2075
80.2
83.7
 
18.1
20.6
 
85.6
88.6
 
21.0
23.3
 
93.0
95.6
 
24.8
27.1
2080
80.3
83.8
 
18.2
20.7
 
85.9
88.9
 
21.2
23.6
 
93.5
96.0
 
25.2
27.5

1The cohort life expectancy at a given age for a given year represents the average number of years of life remaining if a group of persons at that age were to experience the mortality rates for the series of years in which they reach each succeeding age.

2Cohort life expectancy at birth for those born on January 1 of the calendar year is based on a combination of actual and estimated death rates for birth years prior to 2003. For birth years after 2002, these values are based solely on estimated death rates.

3Age 65 cohort life expectancy for those attaining age 65 on January 1 of the calendar years before 1975 is based on actual data. For 1975 through 2002, these values are based on a combination of actual and estimated death rates. After 2002, these values are based solely on estimated death rates.


1Further details about the assumptions, methods, and actuarial estimates are contained in Actuarial Studies published by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration. A complete list of available studies may be found on the Social Security website at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/actstud.html. To obtain copies of such Studies, or of this report, submit a request via our Internet request form; or write to: Office of the Chief Actuary, 700 Altmeyer Building, 6401 Security Boulevard, Baltimore, MD 21235; or call (410) 965-3015. This entire report, along with supplemental year-by-year tables, may also be found at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/TR06/index.html.

2Defined to be the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. A rate of 2.1 would ultimately result in a nearly constant population if net immigration were zero and if death rates were constant.

3These rates reflect NCHS data on deaths and Census estimates of population.

4Calculated here as the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2000, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex for the selected year.

5Average rate of decline is calculated as the annual geometric rate of reduction between the first and last years of the period.

6Consistent with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, legal immigrants are individuals admitted to the U.S. for legal permanent residence.

7Excludes those persons admitted under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

8600,000 net legal immigrants plus 300,000 net other immigrants.

9850,000 net legal immigrants plus 450,000 net other immigrants.

10472,500 net legal immigrants plus 200,000 net other immigrants.


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