Description of Proposed Provision:
E1.3: Reduce the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 11.4 percent in 2018 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.02 | -1.47 | 287 | 0.00 | -0.91 | -0.91 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 11.99 | -1.71 | 266 | 0.00 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2020 | 13.86 | 12.00 | -1.85 | 246 | 0.00 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.03 | -1.99 | 226 | 0.00 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 12.06 | -2.19 | 205 | 0.00 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2023 | 14.55 | 12.09 | -2.46 | 184 | 0.00 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 12.12 | -2.71 | 163 | 0.00 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 12.14 | -2.96 | 141 | 0.00 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2026 | 15.38 | 12.18 | -3.20 | 119 | 0.00 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2027 | 15.62 | 12.19 | -3.43 | 96 | 0.00 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2028 | 15.86 | 12.21 | -3.65 | 73 | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2029 | 16.07 | 12.22 | -3.85 | 50 | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2030 | 16.27 | 12.24 | -4.03 | 27 | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2031 | 16.45 | 12.25 | -4.20 | 3 | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.96 | ||
| 2032 | 16.61 | 12.26 | -4.35 | ---- | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2033 | 16.75 | 12.27 | -4.48 | ---- | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2034 | 16.86 | 12.28 | -4.58 | ---- | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2035 | 16.94 | 12.28 | -4.66 | ---- | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2036 | 17.00 | 12.29 | -4.71 | ---- | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2037 | 17.03 | 12.29 | -4.74 | ---- | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2038 | 17.03 | 12.29 | -4.74 | ---- | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2039 | 17.01 | 12.29 | -4.72 | ---- | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2040 | 16.98 | 12.29 | -4.69 | ---- | 0.01 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2041 | 16.93 | 12.29 | -4.64 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2042 | 16.88 | 12.28 | -4.59 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.97 | ||
| 2043 | 16.82 | 12.28 | -4.54 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.98 | ||
| 2044 | 16.78 | 12.28 | -4.50 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.98 | ||
| 2045 | 16.74 | 12.28 | -4.46 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.98 | ||
| 2046 | 16.70 | 12.28 | -4.42 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.98 | ||
| 2047 | 16.67 | 12.28 | -4.39 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.98 | ||
| 2048 | 16.64 | 12.27 | -4.36 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.98 | ||
| 2049 | 16.61 | 12.27 | -4.34 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.98 | ||
| 2050 | 16.59 | 12.27 | -4.32 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.98 | ||
| 2051 | 16.58 | 12.27 | -4.31 | ---- | 0.02 | -0.96 | -0.98 | ||
| 2052 | 16.58 | 12.27 | -4.31 | ---- | 0.03 | -0.96 | -0.99 | ||
| 2053 | 16.60 | 12.27 | -4.32 | ---- | 0.03 | -0.96 | -0.99 | ||
| 2054 | 16.62 | 12.28 | -4.34 | ---- | 0.03 | -0.96 | -0.99 | ||
| 2055 | 16.65 | 12.28 | -4.37 | ---- | 0.03 | -0.96 | -0.99 | ||
| 2056 | 16.69 | 12.28 | -4.41 | ---- | 0.03 | -0.96 | -0.99 | ||
| 2057 | 16.73 | 12.28 | -4.44 | ---- | 0.03 | -0.96 | -0.99 | ||
| 2058 | 16.77 | 12.29 | -4.49 | ---- | 0.03 | -0.96 | -0.99 | ||
| 2059 | 16.82 | 12.29 | -4.53 | ---- | 0.03 | -0.96 | -0.99 | ||
| 2060 | 16.86 | 12.29 | -4.57 | ---- | 0.03 | -0.96 | -0.99 | ||
| 2061 | 16.91 | 12.30 | -4.61 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2062 | 16.96 | 12.30 | -4.66 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2063 | 17.01 | 12.30 | -4.71 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2064 | 17.06 | 12.30 | -4.75 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2065 | 17.11 | 12.31 | -4.80 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2066 | 17.16 | 12.31 | -4.85 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2067 | 17.21 | 12.31 | -4.90 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2068 | 17.26 | 12.32 | -4.95 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2069 | 17.32 | 12.32 | -5.00 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2070 | 17.37 | 12.32 | -5.04 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2071 | 17.41 | 12.33 | -5.09 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2072 | 17.46 | 12.33 | -5.13 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2073 | 17.49 | 12.33 | -5.16 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.00 | ||
| 2074 | 17.52 | 12.33 | -5.19 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2075 | 17.55 | 12.33 | -5.21 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2076 | 17.56 | 12.34 | -5.23 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2077 | 17.57 | 12.34 | -5.23 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2078 | 17.57 | 12.34 | -5.23 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2079 | 17.56 | 12.34 | -5.23 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2080 | 17.55 | 12.33 | -5.22 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2081 | 17.55 | 12.33 | -5.22 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2082 | 17.55 | 12.33 | -5.22 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2083 | 17.56 | 12.33 | -5.22 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2084 | 17.57 | 12.33 | -5.24 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2085 | 17.59 | 12.33 | -5.26 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2086 | 17.63 | 12.34 | -5.29 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2087 | 17.66 | 12.34 | -5.32 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.96 | -1.01 | ||
| 2088 | 17.70 | 12.34 | -5.36 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.97 | -1.01 | ||
| 2089 | 17.74 | 12.34 | -5.40 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.97 | -1.01 | ||
| 2090 | 17.79 | 12.35 | -5.45 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.97 | -1.01 | ||
| 2091 | 17.84 | 12.35 | -5.49 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.97 | -1.01 | ||
| 2092 | 17.89 | 12.35 | -5.53 | ---- | 0.04 | -0.97 | -1.01 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.69% | 12.89% | -3.80% | 2031 | 0.02% | -0.95% | -0.97% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.