Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.7: Progressive price indexing (40th percentile) of PIA factors for individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2025 through 2062: Create a new bend point at the 40th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 40th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 40th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status. Young survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving spouses with a child in care) are not affected.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.50 | 215 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 13.08 | -1.74 | 199 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.10 | -2.00 | 182 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.37 | 13.14 | -2.23 | 165 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.61 | 13.15 | -2.46 | 148 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.85 | 13.17 | -2.68 | 130 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2029 | 16.05 | 13.18 | -2.87 | 112 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2030 | 16.25 | 13.19 | -3.05 | 94 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2031 | 16.42 | 13.21 | -3.21 | 76 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2032 | 16.56 | 13.22 | -3.35 | 57 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2033 | 16.68 | 13.22 | -3.45 | 38 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2034 | 16.76 | 13.23 | -3.53 | 18 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2035 | 16.82 | 13.23 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2036 | 16.85 | 13.24 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2037 | 16.85 | 13.24 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2038 | 16.82 | 13.24 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2039 | 16.75 | 13.24 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2040 | 16.68 | 13.23 | -3.45 | ---- | -0.28 | -0.02 | 0.27 | ||
| 2041 | 16.59 | 13.23 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.33 | -0.02 | 0.31 | ||
| 2042 | 16.49 | 13.22 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2043 | 16.39 | 13.22 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.39 | ||
| 2044 | 16.29 | 13.21 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2045 | 16.20 | 13.21 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2046 | 16.11 | 13.20 | -2.90 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2047 | 16.02 | 13.20 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.59 | ||
| 2048 | 15.93 | 13.19 | -2.73 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
| 2049 | 15.84 | 13.19 | -2.65 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2050 | 15.76 | 13.19 | -2.57 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2051 | 15.68 | 13.18 | -2.50 | ---- | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2052 | 15.62 | 13.18 | -2.44 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.05 | 0.89 | ||
| 2053 | 15.56 | 13.18 | -2.39 | ---- | -1.01 | -0.06 | 0.95 | ||
| 2054 | 15.52 | 13.17 | -2.34 | ---- | -1.07 | -0.06 | 1.01 | ||
| 2055 | 15.48 | 13.17 | -2.30 | ---- | -1.14 | -0.06 | 1.08 | ||
| 2056 | 15.44 | 13.17 | -2.27 | ---- | -1.21 | -0.07 | 1.15 | ||
| 2057 | 15.41 | 13.17 | -2.24 | ---- | -1.29 | -0.07 | 1.21 | ||
| 2058 | 15.38 | 13.17 | -2.21 | ---- | -1.36 | -0.08 | 1.28 | ||
| 2059 | 15.35 | 13.17 | -2.19 | ---- | -1.43 | -0.08 | 1.35 | ||
| 2060 | 15.33 | 13.17 | -2.16 | ---- | -1.50 | -0.09 | 1.42 | ||
| 2061 | 15.30 | 13.17 | -2.14 | ---- | -1.57 | -0.09 | 1.48 | ||
| 2062 | 15.28 | 13.17 | -2.12 | ---- | -1.64 | -0.09 | 1.55 | ||
| 2063 | 15.26 | 13.16 | -2.10 | ---- | -1.71 | -0.10 | 1.61 | ||
| 2064 | 15.24 | 13.16 | -2.08 | ---- | -1.78 | -0.10 | 1.68 | ||
| 2065 | 15.22 | 13.16 | -2.06 | ---- | -1.84 | -0.11 | 1.74 | ||
| 2066 | 15.21 | 13.16 | -2.05 | ---- | -1.91 | -0.11 | 1.80 | ||
| 2067 | 15.19 | 13.16 | -2.03 | ---- | -1.97 | -0.11 | 1.86 | ||
| 2068 | 15.18 | 13.16 | -2.02 | ---- | -2.04 | -0.12 | 1.92 | ||
| 2069 | 15.18 | 13.16 | -2.02 | ---- | -2.10 | -0.12 | 1.98 | ||
| 2070 | 15.17 | 13.16 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.16 | -0.12 | 2.03 | ||
| 2071 | 15.16 | 13.16 | -2.00 | ---- | -2.21 | -0.13 | 2.08 | ||
| 2072 | 15.15 | 13.16 | -1.99 | ---- | -2.26 | -0.13 | 2.13 | ||
| 2073 | 15.14 | 13.16 | -1.98 | ---- | -2.31 | -0.13 | 2.18 | ||
| 2074 | 15.13 | 13.16 | -1.97 | ---- | -2.35 | -0.13 | 2.22 | ||
| 2075 | 15.11 | 13.16 | -1.95 | ---- | -2.39 | -0.14 | 2.26 | ||
| 2076 | 15.09 | 13.16 | -1.93 | ---- | -2.43 | -0.14 | 2.29 | ||
| 2077 | 15.06 | 13.16 | -1.91 | ---- | -2.46 | -0.14 | 2.32 | ||
| 2078 | 15.03 | 13.16 | -1.88 | ---- | -2.49 | -0.14 | 2.35 | ||
| 2079 | 15.00 | 13.15 | -1.85 | ---- | -2.51 | -0.14 | 2.37 | ||
| 2080 | 14.98 | 13.15 | -1.82 | ---- | -2.54 | -0.15 | 2.39 | ||
| 2081 | 14.95 | 13.15 | -1.80 | ---- | -2.55 | -0.15 | 2.41 | ||
| 2082 | 14.93 | 13.15 | -1.78 | ---- | -2.57 | -0.15 | 2.43 | ||
| 2083 | 14.92 | 13.15 | -1.77 | ---- | -2.59 | -0.15 | 2.44 | ||
| 2084 | 14.92 | 13.15 | -1.77 | ---- | -2.61 | -0.15 | 2.46 | ||
| 2085 | 14.92 | 13.15 | -1.78 | ---- | -2.63 | -0.15 | 2.48 | ||
| 2086 | 14.94 | 13.15 | -1.79 | ---- | -2.64 | -0.15 | 2.49 | ||
| 2087 | 14.96 | 13.15 | -1.81 | ---- | -2.66 | -0.15 | 2.51 | ||
| 2088 | 14.98 | 13.15 | -1.83 | ---- | -2.68 | -0.15 | 2.52 | ||
| 2089 | 15.01 | 13.15 | -1.86 | ---- | -2.69 | -0.15 | 2.54 | ||
| 2090 | 15.04 | 13.16 | -1.89 | ---- | -2.71 | -0.16 | 2.55 | ||
| 2091 | 15.08 | 13.16 | -1.92 | ---- | -2.72 | -0.16 | 2.56 | ||
| 2092 | 15.11 | 13.16 | -1.95 | ---- | -2.73 | -0.16 | 2.58 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.63% | 13.78% | -1.85% | 2034 | -1.04% | -0.06% | 0.98% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.