Description of Proposed Provision:
E1.8: Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2020-2025, until the rate reaches 13.0 percent for 2025 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 13.05 | -0.80 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 13.18 | -0.84 | 245 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.30 | -0.95 | 232 | -0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.43 | -1.12 | 219 | -0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 13.56 | -1.27 | 205 | -0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.67 | -1.43 | 191 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2026 | 15.37 | 13.71 | -1.66 | 178 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2027 | 15.62 | 13.72 | -1.89 | 164 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2028 | 15.85 | 13.74 | -2.11 | 149 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2029 | 16.06 | 13.75 | -2.31 | 134 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2030 | 16.26 | 13.77 | -2.50 | 120 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2031 | 16.45 | 13.78 | -2.67 | 104 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2032 | 16.60 | 13.79 | -2.81 | 89 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2033 | 16.74 | 13.80 | -2.94 | 73 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2034 | 16.84 | 13.81 | -3.04 | 56 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2035 | 16.92 | 13.81 | -3.11 | 39 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2036 | 16.98 | 13.82 | -3.17 | 21 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2037 | 17.02 | 13.82 | -3.20 | 3 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2038 | 17.02 | 13.82 | -3.20 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2039 | 16.99 | 13.82 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2040 | 16.96 | 13.82 | -3.14 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2041 | 16.91 | 13.82 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2042 | 16.85 | 13.82 | -3.04 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2043 | 16.80 | 13.81 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2044 | 16.75 | 13.81 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2045 | 16.71 | 13.81 | -2.90 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2046 | 16.67 | 13.81 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2047 | 16.64 | 13.81 | -2.83 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2048 | 16.61 | 13.81 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2049 | 16.58 | 13.81 | -2.77 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2050 | 16.56 | 13.80 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2051 | 16.54 | 13.80 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.58 | ||
| 2052 | 16.54 | 13.81 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2053 | 16.56 | 13.81 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2054 | 16.58 | 13.81 | -2.77 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2055 | 16.61 | 13.81 | -2.79 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2056 | 16.64 | 13.81 | -2.83 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2057 | 16.68 | 13.82 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2058 | 16.72 | 13.82 | -2.90 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2059 | 16.77 | 13.82 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2060 | 16.81 | 13.83 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2061 | 16.86 | 13.83 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2062 | 16.90 | 13.83 | -3.07 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2063 | 16.95 | 13.84 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2064 | 17.00 | 13.84 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2065 | 17.05 | 13.84 | -3.20 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.59 | ||
| 2066 | 17.10 | 13.85 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2067 | 17.15 | 13.85 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2068 | 17.20 | 13.85 | -3.35 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2069 | 17.25 | 13.86 | -3.40 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2070 | 17.30 | 13.86 | -3.44 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2071 | 17.35 | 13.86 | -3.49 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2072 | 17.39 | 13.87 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.57 | 0.60 | ||
| 2073 | 17.42 | 13.87 | -3.56 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2074 | 17.46 | 13.87 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2075 | 17.48 | 13.87 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2076 | 17.49 | 13.87 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2077 | 17.50 | 13.87 | -3.63 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2078 | 17.50 | 13.87 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2079 | 17.49 | 13.87 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.02 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2080 | 17.49 | 13.87 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2081 | 17.48 | 13.87 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2082 | 17.48 | 13.87 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2083 | 17.49 | 13.87 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2084 | 17.50 | 13.87 | -3.63 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2085 | 17.53 | 13.88 | -3.65 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2086 | 17.56 | 13.88 | -3.68 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2087 | 17.59 | 13.88 | -3.71 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2088 | 17.63 | 13.88 | -3.75 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2089 | 17.68 | 13.89 | -3.79 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2090 | 17.72 | 13.89 | -3.83 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2091 | 17.77 | 13.89 | -3.88 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
| 2092 | 17.82 | 13.90 | -3.92 | ---- | -0.03 | 0.58 | 0.60 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.65% | 14.36% | -2.29% | 2037 | -0.01% | 0.52% | 0.54% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.