Description of Proposed Provision:
E1.9: Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) by 0.1 percentage point each year from 2021-2044, until the rate reaches 14.8 percent in 2044. Then increase the payroll tax rate an additional 0.1 percentage point in each year from 2083-2087, until the rate reaches 15.3 percent for 2087 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 13.08 | -0.93 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.21 | -1.05 | 231 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.33 | -1.21 | 217 | -0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 13.46 | -1.36 | 203 | -0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.58 | -1.52 | 188 | -0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 | ||
| 2026 | 15.37 | 13.70 | -1.67 | 174 | -0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 | ||
| 2027 | 15.62 | 13.81 | -1.80 | 160 | -0.00 | 0.66 | 0.66 | ||
| 2028 | 15.85 | 13.92 | -1.93 | 146 | -0.00 | 0.76 | 0.76 | ||
| 2029 | 16.06 | 14.03 | -2.03 | 133 | -0.00 | 0.85 | 0.85 | ||
| 2030 | 16.26 | 14.14 | -2.12 | 120 | -0.00 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||
| 2031 | 16.44 | 14.25 | -2.20 | 107 | -0.00 | 1.04 | 1.04 | ||
| 2032 | 16.60 | 14.35 | -2.25 | 94 | -0.00 | 1.14 | 1.14 | ||
| 2033 | 16.74 | 14.46 | -2.28 | 81 | -0.00 | 1.23 | 1.24 | ||
| 2034 | 16.84 | 14.56 | -2.28 | 68 | -0.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 | ||
| 2035 | 16.92 | 14.66 | -2.26 | 55 | -0.01 | 1.42 | 1.43 | ||
| 2036 | 16.98 | 14.76 | -2.22 | 43 | -0.01 | 1.51 | 1.52 | ||
| 2037 | 17.01 | 14.86 | -2.16 | 30 | -0.01 | 1.61 | 1.62 | ||
| 2038 | 17.01 | 14.95 | -2.06 | 18 | -0.01 | 1.70 | 1.71 | ||
| 2039 | 16.99 | 15.05 | -1.94 | 7 | -0.01 | 1.80 | 1.81 | ||
| 2040 | 16.95 | 15.14 | -1.81 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.89 | 1.90 | ||
| 2041 | 16.90 | 15.23 | -1.67 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.98 | 2.00 | ||
| 2042 | 16.85 | 15.32 | -1.53 | ---- | -0.01 | 2.08 | 2.09 | ||
| 2043 | 16.79 | 15.41 | -1.38 | ---- | -0.01 | 2.17 | 2.19 | ||
| 2044 | 16.74 | 15.50 | -1.24 | ---- | -0.01 | 2.27 | 2.28 | ||
| 2045 | 16.70 | 15.51 | -1.20 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2046 | 16.66 | 15.51 | -1.16 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2047 | 16.63 | 15.51 | -1.12 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2048 | 16.60 | 15.51 | -1.09 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2049 | 16.57 | 15.50 | -1.06 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2050 | 16.55 | 15.50 | -1.04 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.29 | ||
| 2051 | 16.53 | 15.50 | -1.03 | ---- | -0.02 | 2.27 | 2.30 | ||
| 2052 | 16.53 | 15.51 | -1.03 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.27 | 2.30 | ||
| 2053 | 16.54 | 15.51 | -1.03 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.27 | 2.30 | ||
| 2054 | 16.56 | 15.51 | -1.05 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.27 | 2.30 | ||
| 2055 | 16.59 | 15.51 | -1.08 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.27 | 2.31 | ||
| 2056 | 16.62 | 15.51 | -1.11 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.27 | 2.31 | ||
| 2057 | 16.66 | 15.52 | -1.14 | ---- | -0.03 | 2.28 | 2.31 | ||
| 2058 | 16.70 | 15.52 | -1.18 | ---- | -0.04 | 2.28 | 2.31 | ||
| 2059 | 16.75 | 15.53 | -1.22 | ---- | -0.04 | 2.28 | 2.32 | ||
| 2060 | 16.79 | 15.53 | -1.26 | ---- | -0.04 | 2.28 | 2.32 | ||
| 2061 | 16.83 | 15.53 | -1.30 | ---- | -0.04 | 2.28 | 2.32 | ||
| 2062 | 16.88 | 15.54 | -1.34 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.28 | 2.32 | ||
| 2063 | 16.92 | 15.54 | -1.38 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.28 | 2.32 | ||
| 2064 | 16.97 | 15.54 | -1.42 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.28 | 2.33 | ||
| 2065 | 17.01 | 15.55 | -1.47 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.28 | 2.33 | ||
| 2066 | 17.06 | 15.55 | -1.51 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.28 | 2.33 | ||
| 2067 | 17.11 | 15.55 | -1.56 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.28 | 2.33 | ||
| 2068 | 17.16 | 15.56 | -1.61 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.28 | 2.34 | ||
| 2069 | 17.22 | 15.56 | -1.65 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.28 | 2.34 | ||
| 2070 | 17.26 | 15.57 | -1.70 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.28 | 2.34 | ||
| 2071 | 17.31 | 15.57 | -1.74 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.28 | 2.34 | ||
| 2072 | 17.35 | 15.57 | -1.78 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.35 | ||
| 2073 | 17.38 | 15.58 | -1.81 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.35 | ||
| 2074 | 17.41 | 15.58 | -1.83 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.35 | ||
| 2075 | 17.43 | 15.58 | -1.85 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.35 | ||
| 2076 | 17.45 | 15.58 | -1.87 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.36 | ||
| 2077 | 17.45 | 15.58 | -1.87 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.28 | 2.36 | ||
| 2078 | 17.45 | 15.58 | -1.87 | ---- | -0.07 | 2.29 | 2.36 | ||
| 2079 | 17.44 | 15.58 | -1.86 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.29 | 2.36 | ||
| 2080 | 17.43 | 15.58 | -1.85 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.29 | 2.36 | ||
| 2081 | 17.43 | 15.58 | -1.84 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.29 | 2.36 | ||
| 2082 | 17.43 | 15.58 | -1.84 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.29 | 2.37 | ||
| 2083 | 17.43 | 15.68 | -1.76 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.38 | 2.46 | ||
| 2084 | 17.45 | 15.77 | -1.68 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.47 | 2.55 | ||
| 2085 | 17.47 | 15.87 | -1.60 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.57 | 2.65 | ||
| 2086 | 17.50 | 15.96 | -1.54 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.66 | 2.74 | ||
| 2087 | 17.53 | 16.06 | -1.47 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.76 | 2.84 | ||
| 2088 | 17.57 | 16.07 | -1.50 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.76 | 2.85 | ||
| 2089 | 17.62 | 16.07 | -1.54 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.76 | 2.85 | ||
| 2090 | 17.66 | 16.08 | -1.59 | ---- | -0.08 | 2.77 | 2.85 | ||
| 2091 | 17.71 | 16.08 | -1.63 | ---- | -0.09 | 2.77 | 2.85 | ||
| 2092 | 17.76 | 16.08 | -1.67 | ---- | -0.09 | 2.77 | 2.85 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.63% | 15.57% | -1.06% | 2039 | -0.03% | 1.73% | 1.76% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.