Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.13: For retired worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2024 (excluding disabled workers), add a new bend point at the wage-indexed equivalent of the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution minus $100 (for 2015 eligibility) and change the PIA factors to 95/32/15/5. Also move the current-law first bend point from the wage-indexed equivalent of $885 in 2017 to $1,125 in 2017. Phase this provision in over 10 years (2024-2033). The phase-in would work on a weighted-average basis: 90% of CL formula + 10% of proposal formula for 2024, 80% of CL formula + 20% of proposal formula for 2025, and so on.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.50 | 215 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 13.08 | -1.74 | 199 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.10 | -2.00 | 182 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.37 | 13.14 | -2.24 | 165 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.62 | 13.15 | -2.47 | 148 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.86 | 13.17 | -2.69 | 130 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2029 | 16.08 | 13.18 | -2.89 | 112 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2030 | 16.28 | 13.20 | -3.08 | 94 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2031 | 16.46 | 13.21 | -3.25 | 75 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2032 | 16.62 | 13.22 | -3.40 | 56 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2033 | 16.75 | 13.23 | -3.52 | 36 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2034 | 16.86 | 13.23 | -3.62 | 16 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2035 | 16.93 | 13.24 | -3.69 | ---- | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2036 | 16.99 | 13.24 | -3.75 | ---- | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2037 | 17.02 | 13.25 | -3.77 | ---- | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2038 | 17.01 | 13.25 | -3.76 | ---- | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2039 | 16.98 | 13.25 | -3.73 | ---- | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2040 | 16.93 | 13.25 | -3.68 | ---- | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2041 | 16.87 | 13.24 | -3.63 | ---- | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2042 | 16.81 | 13.24 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2043 | 16.75 | 13.24 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2044 | 16.69 | 13.23 | -3.46 | ---- | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2045 | 16.65 | 13.23 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2046 | 16.60 | 13.23 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2047 | 16.56 | 13.23 | -3.33 | ---- | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2048 | 16.52 | 13.23 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0.09 | ||
| 2049 | 16.49 | 13.23 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.10 | -0.01 | 0.09 | ||
| 2050 | 16.47 | 13.23 | -3.24 | ---- | -0.10 | -0.01 | 0.09 | ||
| 2051 | 16.45 | 13.23 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.10 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2052 | 16.45 | 13.23 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2053 | 16.46 | 13.23 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2054 | 16.47 | 13.23 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2055 | 16.50 | 13.23 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2056 | 16.53 | 13.23 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2057 | 16.57 | 13.24 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2058 | 16.61 | 13.24 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2059 | 16.66 | 13.24 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2060 | 16.70 | 13.25 | -3.45 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2061 | 16.74 | 13.25 | -3.50 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2062 | 16.79 | 13.25 | -3.54 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2063 | 16.84 | 13.25 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2064 | 16.88 | 13.26 | -3.63 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2065 | 16.93 | 13.26 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2066 | 16.98 | 13.26 | -3.72 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2067 | 17.03 | 13.27 | -3.77 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2068 | 17.08 | 13.27 | -3.81 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2069 | 17.14 | 13.27 | -3.86 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2070 | 17.19 | 13.28 | -3.91 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2071 | 17.23 | 13.28 | -3.95 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2072 | 17.27 | 13.28 | -3.99 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2073 | 17.31 | 13.28 | -4.02 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2074 | 17.34 | 13.29 | -4.05 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2075 | 17.36 | 13.29 | -4.07 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2076 | 17.38 | 13.29 | -4.09 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2077 | 17.38 | 13.29 | -4.09 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2078 | 17.38 | 13.29 | -4.09 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2079 | 17.37 | 13.29 | -4.08 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2080 | 17.36 | 13.29 | -4.07 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2081 | 17.36 | 13.29 | -4.07 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2082 | 17.36 | 13.29 | -4.07 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2083 | 17.36 | 13.29 | -4.08 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2084 | 17.38 | 13.29 | -4.09 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2085 | 17.40 | 13.29 | -4.11 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2086 | 17.43 | 13.29 | -4.14 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2087 | 17.47 | 13.29 | -4.17 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2088 | 17.51 | 13.30 | -4.21 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2089 | 17.55 | 13.30 | -4.25 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2090 | 17.60 | 13.30 | -4.29 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2091 | 17.64 | 13.31 | -4.34 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2092 | 17.69 | 13.31 | -4.38 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.59% | 13.83% | -2.76% | 2034 | -0.07% | -0.00% | 0.07% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.