Description of Proposed Provision:
A2: Starting December 2019, reduce the annual COLA by 0.5 percentage point.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.06 | 12.89 | -1.17 | 257 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2021 | 14.14 | 12.91 | -1.22 | 242 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2022 | 14.23 | 12.94 | -1.30 | 227 | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2023 | 14.35 | 12.95 | -1.40 | 212 | -0.27 | -0.01 | 0.26 | ||
| 2024 | 14.47 | 12.98 | -1.49 | 197 | -0.34 | -0.01 | 0.32 | ||
| 2025 | 14.58 | 12.99 | -1.59 | 182 | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2026 | 14.70 | 13.11 | -1.59 | 167 | -0.46 | -0.02 | 0.44 | ||
| 2027 | 14.84 | 13.13 | -1.71 | 153 | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2028 | 15.00 | 13.14 | -1.86 | 140 | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2029 | 15.15 | 13.15 | -2.00 | 126 | -0.64 | -0.03 | 0.61 | ||
| 2030 | 15.29 | 13.16 | -2.12 | 112 | -0.70 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2031 | 15.41 | 13.18 | -2.24 | 98 | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2032 | 15.52 | 13.18 | -2.34 | 84 | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2033 | 15.61 | 13.19 | -2.42 | 70 | -0.84 | -0.05 | 0.80 | ||
| 2034 | 15.68 | 13.20 | -2.48 | 55 | -0.89 | -0.05 | 0.84 | ||
| 2035 | 15.73 | 13.20 | -2.52 | 40 | -0.93 | -0.05 | 0.87 | ||
| 2036 | 15.76 | 13.21 | -2.55 | 25 | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2037 | 15.79 | 13.21 | -2.58 | 9 | -1.00 | -0.06 | 0.94 | ||
| 2038 | 15.80 | 13.21 | -2.58 | ---- | -1.03 | -0.06 | 0.97 | ||
| 2039 | 15.78 | 13.21 | -2.57 | ---- | -1.05 | -0.06 | 0.99 | ||
| 2040 | 15.75 | 13.21 | -2.54 | ---- | -1.08 | -0.06 | 1.02 | ||
| 2041 | 15.71 | 13.21 | -2.50 | ---- | -1.10 | -0.06 | 1.04 | ||
| 2042 | 15.66 | 13.21 | -2.45 | ---- | -1.11 | -0.06 | 1.05 | ||
| 2043 | 15.61 | 13.21 | -2.40 | ---- | -1.13 | -0.06 | 1.06 | ||
| 2044 | 15.56 | 13.21 | -2.35 | ---- | -1.14 | -0.06 | 1.07 | ||
| 2045 | 15.51 | 13.20 | -2.31 | ---- | -1.15 | -0.06 | 1.08 | ||
| 2046 | 15.47 | 13.20 | -2.27 | ---- | -1.15 | -0.07 | 1.09 | ||
| 2047 | 15.44 | 13.20 | -2.24 | ---- | -1.16 | -0.07 | 1.09 | ||
| 2048 | 15.41 | 13.20 | -2.21 | ---- | -1.16 | -0.07 | 1.10 | ||
| 2049 | 15.39 | 13.20 | -2.19 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.07 | 1.10 | ||
| 2050 | 15.37 | 13.20 | -2.17 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.07 | 1.10 | ||
| 2051 | 15.36 | 13.20 | -2.16 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.07 | 1.10 | ||
| 2052 | 15.36 | 13.20 | -2.16 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.07 | 1.10 | ||
| 2053 | 15.37 | 13.20 | -2.17 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.07 | 1.10 | ||
| 2054 | 15.39 | 13.21 | -2.18 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.07 | 1.11 | ||
| 2055 | 15.42 | 13.21 | -2.21 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.07 | 1.11 | ||
| 2056 | 15.45 | 13.21 | -2.24 | ---- | -1.18 | -0.07 | 1.11 | ||
| 2057 | 15.49 | 13.22 | -2.27 | ---- | -1.18 | -0.07 | 1.11 | ||
| 2058 | 15.53 | 13.22 | -2.31 | ---- | -1.18 | -0.07 | 1.11 | ||
| 2059 | 15.58 | 13.22 | -2.35 | ---- | -1.18 | -0.07 | 1.12 | ||
| 2060 | 15.62 | 13.23 | -2.39 | ---- | -1.19 | -0.07 | 1.12 | ||
| 2061 | 15.66 | 13.23 | -2.43 | ---- | -1.19 | -0.07 | 1.13 | ||
| 2062 | 15.71 | 13.23 | -2.48 | ---- | -1.20 | -0.07 | 1.13 | ||
| 2063 | 15.76 | 13.24 | -2.52 | ---- | -1.21 | -0.07 | 1.14 | ||
| 2064 | 15.80 | 13.24 | -2.56 | ---- | -1.21 | -0.07 | 1.14 | ||
| 2065 | 15.85 | 13.24 | -2.61 | ---- | -1.22 | -0.07 | 1.15 | ||
| 2066 | 15.90 | 13.25 | -2.65 | ---- | -1.23 | -0.07 | 1.15 | ||
| 2067 | 15.95 | 13.25 | -2.70 | ---- | -1.23 | -0.07 | 1.16 | ||
| 2068 | 16.00 | 13.26 | -2.75 | ---- | -1.24 | -0.07 | 1.17 | ||
| 2069 | 16.06 | 13.26 | -2.80 | ---- | -1.25 | -0.07 | 1.17 | ||
| 2070 | 16.11 | 13.26 | -2.85 | ---- | -1.25 | -0.07 | 1.18 | ||
| 2071 | 16.16 | 13.27 | -2.89 | ---- | -1.26 | -0.07 | 1.19 | ||
| 2072 | 16.20 | 13.27 | -2.93 | ---- | -1.27 | -0.07 | 1.19 | ||
| 2073 | 16.24 | 13.27 | -2.97 | ---- | -1.27 | -0.07 | 1.20 | ||
| 2074 | 16.27 | 13.28 | -3.00 | ---- | -1.28 | -0.07 | 1.21 | ||
| 2075 | 16.30 | 13.28 | -3.02 | ---- | -1.29 | -0.07 | 1.21 | ||
| 2076 | 16.32 | 13.28 | -3.04 | ---- | -1.29 | -0.08 | 1.22 | ||
| 2077 | 16.33 | 13.28 | -3.05 | ---- | -1.30 | -0.08 | 1.22 | ||
| 2078 | 16.32 | 13.28 | -3.04 | ---- | -1.30 | -0.08 | 1.23 | ||
| 2079 | 16.31 | 13.28 | -3.03 | ---- | -1.31 | -0.08 | 1.23 | ||
| 2080 | 16.30 | 13.28 | -3.02 | ---- | -1.31 | -0.08 | 1.23 | ||
| 2081 | 16.28 | 13.28 | -3.00 | ---- | -1.31 | -0.08 | 1.24 | ||
| 2082 | 16.26 | 13.28 | -2.98 | ---- | -1.31 | -0.08 | 1.24 | ||
| 2083 | 16.24 | 13.28 | -2.96 | ---- | -1.32 | -0.08 | 1.24 | ||
| 2084 | 16.22 | 13.27 | -2.95 | ---- | -1.32 | -0.08 | 1.24 | ||
| 2085 | 16.21 | 13.27 | -2.94 | ---- | -1.32 | -0.08 | 1.24 | ||
| 2086 | 16.21 | 13.27 | -2.93 | ---- | -1.32 | -0.08 | 1.24 | ||
| 2087 | 16.21 | 13.27 | -2.94 | ---- | -1.32 | -0.08 | 1.24 | ||
| 2088 | 16.22 | 13.27 | -2.95 | ---- | -1.32 | -0.08 | 1.25 | ||
| 2089 | 16.24 | 13.28 | -2.97 | ---- | -1.33 | -0.08 | 1.25 | ||
| 2090 | 16.27 | 13.28 | -2.99 | ---- | -1.33 | -0.08 | 1.25 | ||
| 2091 | 16.31 | 13.28 | -3.03 | ---- | -1.33 | -0.08 | 1.25 | ||
| 2092 | 16.35 | 13.28 | -3.06 | ---- | -1.33 | -0.08 | 1.25 | ||
| 2093 | 16.39 | 13.29 | -3.10 | ---- | -1.33 | -0.08 | 1.26 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 15.68% | 13.79% | -1.90% | 2037 | -1.00% | -0.06% | 0.94% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.