Description of Proposed Provision:
B4.5: For retired and disabled workers, reduce the maximum number of dropout years to 4 for workers newly eligible in 2020, to 3 for workers newly eligible in 2021, and to 2 for workers newly eligible in 2022 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 240 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2022 | 14.42 | 12.95 | -1.48 | 223 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2023 | 14.59 | 12.96 | -1.63 | 206 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2024 | 14.76 | 12.99 | -1.77 | 189 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2025 | 14.92 | 13.01 | -1.91 | 172 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2026 | 15.07 | 13.13 | -1.94 | 156 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2027 | 15.26 | 13.15 | -2.11 | 140 | -0.11 | -0.00 | 0.10 | ||
| 2028 | 15.45 | 13.17 | -2.29 | 124 | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2029 | 15.64 | 13.18 | -2.45 | 107 | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2030 | 15.80 | 13.19 | -2.61 | 91 | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2031 | 15.96 | 13.21 | -2.75 | 75 | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2032 | 16.09 | 13.22 | -2.88 | 58 | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2033 | 16.21 | 13.23 | -2.98 | 41 | -0.25 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2034 | 16.30 | 13.23 | -3.06 | 23 | -0.27 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2035 | 16.36 | 13.24 | -3.13 | 5 | -0.29 | -0.01 | 0.27 | ||
| 2036 | 16.42 | 13.24 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.30 | -0.02 | 0.29 | ||
| 2037 | 16.46 | 13.25 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.31 | ||
| 2038 | 16.48 | 13.25 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2039 | 16.48 | 13.25 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2040 | 16.46 | 13.25 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2041 | 16.43 | 13.25 | -3.18 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2042 | 16.38 | 13.25 | -3.13 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2043 | 16.33 | 13.25 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2044 | 16.28 | 13.25 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.39 | ||
| 2045 | 16.23 | 13.25 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.43 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2046 | 16.19 | 13.24 | -2.95 | ---- | -0.44 | -0.02 | 0.41 | ||
| 2047 | 16.16 | 13.24 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.45 | -0.02 | 0.42 | ||
| 2048 | 16.12 | 13.24 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.45 | -0.02 | 0.43 | ||
| 2049 | 16.09 | 13.24 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.02 | 0.44 | ||
| 2050 | 16.07 | 13.24 | -2.83 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2051 | 16.06 | 13.24 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2052 | 16.05 | 13.24 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2053 | 16.06 | 13.24 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2054 | 16.07 | 13.25 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2055 | 16.09 | 13.25 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2056 | 16.12 | 13.25 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2057 | 16.16 | 13.26 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2058 | 16.21 | 13.26 | -2.95 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2059 | 16.25 | 13.26 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2060 | 16.30 | 13.27 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2061 | 16.34 | 13.27 | -3.07 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2062 | 16.39 | 13.27 | -3.12 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2063 | 16.44 | 13.28 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2064 | 16.49 | 13.28 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2065 | 16.54 | 13.29 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2066 | 16.60 | 13.29 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2067 | 16.65 | 13.29 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2068 | 16.71 | 13.30 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2069 | 16.77 | 13.30 | -3.47 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2070 | 16.83 | 13.31 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2071 | 16.88 | 13.31 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2072 | 16.93 | 13.31 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2073 | 16.97 | 13.32 | -3.66 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2074 | 17.01 | 13.32 | -3.69 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2075 | 17.04 | 13.32 | -3.72 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2076 | 17.07 | 13.32 | -3.74 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2077 | 17.08 | 13.33 | -3.76 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2078 | 17.08 | 13.33 | -3.76 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2079 | 17.08 | 13.33 | -3.75 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2080 | 17.06 | 13.32 | -3.74 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2081 | 17.05 | 13.32 | -3.72 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2082 | 17.03 | 13.32 | -3.71 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2083 | 17.01 | 13.32 | -3.69 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2084 | 17.00 | 13.32 | -3.68 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2085 | 16.99 | 13.32 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2086 | 16.99 | 13.32 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2087 | 16.99 | 13.32 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2088 | 17.01 | 13.32 | -3.68 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2089 | 17.03 | 13.32 | -3.70 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2090 | 17.06 | 13.32 | -3.73 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2091 | 17.09 | 13.33 | -3.77 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2092 | 17.13 | 13.33 | -3.80 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2093 | 17.18 | 13.33 | -3.85 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.31% | 13.82% | -2.48% | 2035 | -0.38% | -0.02% | 0.36% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
|||||||||
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.