Long Range Solvency Provisions

Description of Proposed Provision:
E2.14: Apply OASDI 12.4 percent payroll tax rate on earnings above $250,000 starting in 2020, and tax all earnings once the current-law taxable maximum exceeds $250,000. Provide benefit credit for earnings above the current-law taxable maximum that are subject to the payroll tax, using a secondary PIA formula. This secondary PIA formula involves: (1) an "AIME+" derived from annual earnings from each year after 2019 that were in excess of that year's current-law taxable maximum; and (2) a formula factor of 2 percent on this newly computed "AIME+".

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll			Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll
Calendar year	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance	Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance
2018	13.81	12.64	-1.17	288	0.00	0.00	0.00
2019	13.95	12.87	-1.08	272	0.00	0.00	0.00
2020	14.12	14.23	0.11	256	0.00	1.34	1.34
2021	14.27	14.39	0.12	249	-0.00	1.47	1.48
2022	14.43	14.47	0.03	241	-0.00	1.52	1.52
2023	14.62	14.53	-0.08	234	-0.00	1.57	1.57
2024	14.80	14.61	-0.19	226	-0.00	1.62	1.62
2025	14.98	14.68	-0.30	218	-0.00	1.67	1.67
2026	15.16	14.85	-0.31	210	-0.00	1.72	1.72
2027	15.36	14.92	-0.44	203	-0.00	1.77	1.77
2028	15.58	15.00	-0.58	196	-0.00	1.83	1.83
2029	15.79	15.08	-0.71	189	-0.00	1.89	1.89
2030	15.98	15.16	-0.82	183	-0.00	1.96	1.96
2031	16.16	15.24	-0.92	177	-0.00	2.02	2.02
2032	16.32	15.32	-0.99	171	0.00	2.10	2.09
2033	16.45	15.41	-1.05	165	0.00	2.17	2.17
2034	16.57	15.49	-1.07	160	0.00	2.25	2.24
2035	16.65	15.56	-1.09	155	0.00	2.31	2.31
2036	16.72	15.57	-1.15	150	0.00	2.31	2.31
2037	16.79	15.58	-1.21	144	0.00	2.31	2.31
2038	16.83	15.59	-1.24	138	0.00	2.32	2.31
2039	16.84	15.59	-1.25	133	0.00	2.32	2.31
2040	16.83	15.59	-1.24	127	0.01	2.32	2.31
2041	16.82	15.59	-1.22	121	0.01	2.32	2.31
2042	16.78	15.59	-1.19	116	0.01	2.32	2.31
2043	16.74	15.59	-1.15	110	0.01	2.32	2.31
2044	16.70	15.59	-1.11	105	0.01	2.32	2.31
2045	16.67	15.59	-1.08	100	0.01	2.32	2.31
2046	16.64	15.59	-1.05	95	0.01	2.32	2.31
2047	16.61	15.59	-1.02	90	0.01	2.32	2.31
2048	16.59	15.59	-0.99	85	0.01	2.32	2.31
2049	16.57	15.59	-0.97	80	0.01	2.33	2.31
2050	16.55	15.59	-0.96	75	0.01	2.33	2.32
2051	16.54	15.60	-0.95	70	0.01	2.33	2.32
2052	16.55	15.60	-0.95	65	0.01	2.33	2.32
2053	16.56	15.60	-0.96	61	0.01	2.33	2.32
2054	16.57	15.60	-0.97	56	0.01	2.33	2.32
2055	16.60	15.61	-1.00	50	0.01	2.33	2.32
2056	16.64	15.61	-1.03	45	0.01	2.33	2.32
2057	16.68	15.62	-1.06	39	0.01	2.33	2.32
2058	16.73	15.62	-1.11	34	0.01	2.33	2.32
2059	16.77	15.63	-1.15	27	0.01	2.33	2.32
2060	16.82	15.63	-1.19	21	0.01	2.34	2.32
2061	16.87	15.63	-1.24	14	0.01	2.34	2.32
2062	16.92	15.64	-1.28	7	0.01	2.34	2.32
2063	16.98	15.64	-1.33	0	0.01	2.34	2.32
2064	17.03	15.65	-1.38	----	0.02	2.34	2.32
2065	17.08	15.65	-1.43	----	0.02	2.34	2.32
2066	17.14	15.66	-1.48	----	0.02	2.34	2.33
2067	17.20	15.67	-1.53	----	0.02	2.34	2.33
2068	17.26	15.67	-1.59	----	0.02	2.34	2.33
2069	17.32	15.68	-1.64	----	0.02	2.34	2.33
2070	17.38	15.68	-1.70	----	0.02	2.35	2.33
2071	17.44	15.69	-1.75	----	0.02	2.35	2.33
2072	17.49	15.69	-1.79	----	0.02	2.35	2.33
2073	17.53	15.70	-1.83	----	0.02	2.35	2.33
2074	17.57	15.70	-1.87	----	0.02	2.35	2.33
2075	17.60	15.70	-1.90	----	0.02	2.35	2.33
2076	17.63	15.71	-1.92	----	0.02	2.35	2.34
2077	17.64	15.71	-1.93	----	0.02	2.35	2.34
2078	17.64	15.71	-1.93	----	0.02	2.36	2.34
2079	17.64	15.71	-1.92	----	0.02	2.36	2.34
2080	17.62	15.71	-1.91	----	0.02	2.36	2.34
2081	17.61	15.71	-1.89	----	0.02	2.36	2.34
2082	17.59	15.71	-1.88	----	0.02	2.36	2.34
2083	17.57	15.71	-1.86	----	0.02	2.36	2.34
2084	17.56	15.72	-1.84	----	0.02	2.36	2.35
2085	17.55	15.72	-1.83	----	0.02	2.37	2.35
2086	17.55	15.72	-1.83	----	0.02	2.37	2.35
2087	17.55	15.72	-1.83	----	0.02	2.37	2.35
2088	17.57	15.72	-1.84	----	0.02	2.37	2.35
2089	17.59	15.72	-1.86	----	0.02	2.37	2.35
2090	17.62	15.73	-1.89	----	0.02	2.37	2.35
2091	17.66	15.73	-1.93	----	0.02	2.37	2.35
2092	17.70	15.73	-1.96	----	0.02	2.37	2.35
2093	17.75	15.74	-2.01	----	0.02	2.38	2.35

Summarized Estimates

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
Years	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance	Year of reserve depletion¹	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance
2018-2092	16.69%	15.98%	-0.72%	2063	0.01%	2.14%	2.13%
¹ Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.

Detailed Single Year Tables

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

Summarized Estimates