Detailed Single Year Tables
Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.13: For retired worker beneficiaries newly eligible in 2028 (excluding disabled workers), add a new bend point at the wage-indexed equivalent of the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution minus $100 (for 2015 eligibility) and change the PIA factors to 95/32/15/5. Also move the current-law first bend point from the wage-indexed equivalent of $996 in 2021 to $1,266 in 2021. Phase this provision in over 10 years (2028-2037). The phase-in would work on a weighted-average basis: 90% of CL formula + 10% of proposal formula for 2028, 80% of CL formula + 20% of proposal formula for 2029, and so on.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2021 | 14.11 | 12.31 | -1.81 | 253 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.30 | 12.93 | -1.38 | 231 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.43 | 12.91 | -1.52 | 214 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.64 | 12.94 | -1.69 | 196 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 14.86 | 12.96 | -1.90 | 178 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.10 | 13.08 | -2.03 | 159 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.10 | -2.26 | 141 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.62 | 13.14 | -2.49 | 122 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2029 | 15.87 | 13.17 | -2.70 | 104 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2030 | 16.11 | 13.19 | -2.92 | 85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2031 | 16.29 | 13.21 | -3.08 | 66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2032 | 16.44 | 13.22 | -3.22 | 46 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2033 | 16.57 | 13.23 | -3.34 | 27 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2034 | 16.67 | 13.24 | -3.43 | 7 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2035 | 16.75 | 13.24 | -3.50 | ---- | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2036 | 16.81 | 13.25 | -3.56 | ---- | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2037 | 16.88 | 13.26 | -3.62 | ---- | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2038 | 16.93 | 13.26 | -3.66 | ---- | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2039 | 16.96 | 13.27 | -3.69 | ---- | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | ||
| 2040 | 16.98 | 13.27 | -3.71 | ---- | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | ||
| 2041 | 17.01 | 13.27 | -3.74 | ---- | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2042 | 17.03 | 13.27 | -3.75 | ---- | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2043 | 17.02 | 13.28 | -3.75 | ---- | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2044 | 17.02 | 13.28 | -3.74 | ---- | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2045 | 17.01 | 13.28 | -3.73 | ---- | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2046 | 17.01 | 13.28 | -3.73 | ---- | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2047 | 17.02 | 13.28 | -3.74 | ---- | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2048 | 17.03 | 13.28 | -3.75 | ---- | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2049 | 17.04 | 13.28 | -3.76 | ---- | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2050 | 17.05 | 13.29 | -3.77 | ---- | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2051 | 17.07 | 13.29 | -3.78 | ---- | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0.09 | ||
| 2052 | 17.09 | 13.29 | -3.80 | ---- | -0.10 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2053 | 17.11 | 13.29 | -3.82 | ---- | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2054 | 17.14 | 13.30 | -3.84 | ---- | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2055 | 17.17 | 13.30 | -3.87 | ---- | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2056 | 17.21 | 13.30 | -3.91 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2057 | 17.25 | 13.31 | -3.94 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2058 | 17.30 | 13.31 | -3.99 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2059 | 17.35 | 13.31 | -4.03 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2060 | 17.40 | 13.32 | -4.08 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2061 | 17.45 | 13.32 | -4.12 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2062 | 17.50 | 13.33 | -4.17 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2063 | 17.54 | 13.33 | -4.21 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2064 | 17.59 | 13.34 | -4.25 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2065 | 17.63 | 13.34 | -4.30 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2066 | 17.68 | 13.34 | -4.34 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2067 | 17.73 | 13.35 | -4.38 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2068 | 17.78 | 13.35 | -4.43 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2069 | 17.83 | 13.35 | -4.48 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2070 | 17.89 | 13.36 | -4.53 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2071 | 17.94 | 13.36 | -4.58 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2072 | 17.99 | 13.37 | -4.62 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2073 | 18.04 | 13.37 | -4.67 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2074 | 18.09 | 13.37 | -4.71 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2075 | 18.13 | 13.38 | -4.75 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2076 | 18.16 | 13.38 | -4.78 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2077 | 18.18 | 13.38 | -4.80 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2078 | 18.18 | 13.38 | -4.80 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2079 | 18.18 | 13.38 | -4.79 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2080 | 18.16 | 13.38 | -4.77 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2081 | 18.13 | 13.38 | -4.75 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2082 | 18.10 | 13.38 | -4.72 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2083 | 18.05 | 13.38 | -4.67 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2084 | 18.00 | 13.38 | -4.62 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2085 | 17.94 | 13.37 | -4.57 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2086 | 17.88 | 13.37 | -4.51 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2087 | 17.81 | 13.36 | -4.44 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2088 | 17.74 | 13.36 | -4.37 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2089 | 17.67 | 13.36 | -4.31 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2090 | 17.61 | 13.35 | -4.26 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2091 | 17.56 | 13.35 | -4.21 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2092 | 17.53 | 13.35 | -4.18 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2093 | 17.51 | 13.35 | -4.16 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2094 | 17.50 | 13.35 | -4.15 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2095 | 17.50 | 13.35 | -4.15 | ---- | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2096 | 17.50 | 13.35 | -4.15 | ---- | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2021-2095 | 17.21% | 13.77% | -3.44% | 2034 | -0.10% | -0.01% | 0.09% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.