2026 Annual Report of the SSI Program

D. Federal SSI Payments as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

This section presents estimated annual SSI program expenditures as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), which provides an additional perspective to assess the cost of the program relative to the size of the national economy. The estimates in this section can be viewed as the estimated proportion of the total output of the U.S. economy needed to provide Federal SSI payments.

As table IV.D1 and figure IV.D1 show, during the early 1990s, total Federal SSI payments as a percentage of GDP grew rapidly (to 0.33 percent of GDP in 1996) due to a combination of factors (see section IV.B). Following legislation enacted in 1996¹, SSI expenditures decreased as a percentage of GDP beginning in 1997 and continued to decline through 2000.

Federal SSI payments as a share of GDP increased slightly after 2000, partly because of a slowdown in economic growth over that period, but declined gradually from 2002 to 2007 due to relatively slower growth in the number of SSI recipients. Beginning in 2007, however, this trend reversed due to an increase in program recipients and a temporary decline in real GDP during the economic recession that began in that year.

Federal SSI payments as a percentage of GDP has generally decreased since 2012 as the number of SSI recipients has declined and the economy has recovered and remained strong, excepting a decline in GDP in 2020 during a brief COVID-19 pandemic-related recession from which the economy recovered rapidly.

Federal SSI payments as a share of GDP is projected to continue this gradual downward trend throughout the projection period until it reaches 0.15 percent of GDP by 2050 due to the net effect of two factors. First, Federal SSI payments, after adjusting for growth in prices, are projected to grow roughly in line with the SSI recipient population (see section IV.C). Second, using the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report intermediate assumptions, the effect of the real growth in GDP is projected to be greater than the effect of projected increases in SSI recipients.

 

Figure IV.D1.—SSI Federal Payments, by Age Group, as a Percentage of GDP, Calendar Years 1975‑2050

[D]

 

Table IV.D1.—SSI Federal Payments as a Percentage of GDP, Calendar Years 1975‑2050  

Calendar year		GDPa (In billions)	Blind or disabled, by age group						Aged, by age group		Totals
			0-17	18-34	35-49	50-64	65-74	75 or older	65-74	75 or older	Blind or disabled	Aged	All
Historical data:
	1975	$1,685	0.008	0.032	0.030	0.065	0.011	0.001	0.048	0.061	0.147	0.109	0.256
	1980	2,857	.014	.033	.026	.050	.019	.001	.022	.043	.142	.066	.207
	1985	4,339	.017	.040	.029	.044	.019	.004	.016	.034	.153	.050	.203
	1990	5,963	.020	.045	.040	.047	.016	.007	.017	.025	.175	.042	.217
	1991	6,158	.028	.051	.048	.053	.017	.007	.019	.026	.205	.046	.250
	1992	6,520	.049	.060	.055	.058	.017	.007	.020	.026	.246	.046	.292
	1993	6,859	.057	.065	.061	.061	.017	.007	.022	.026	.269	.047	.316
	1994	7,287	.058	.062	.064	.062	.017	.007	.022	.025	.270	.047	.316
	1995	7,640	.061	.062	.068	.064	.018	.007	.021	.025	.280	.046	.326
	1996	8,073	.062	.062	.069	.066	.018	.007	.021	.024	.283	.045	.328
	1997	8,578	.057	.058	.065	.063	.017	.007	.019	.024	.269	.042	.311
	1998	9,063	.055	.057	.066	.064	.017	.007	.017	.023	.265	.041	.306
	1999	9,631	.050	.053	.064	.063	.017	.007	.016	.023	.254	.039	.293
	2000	10,251	.047	.050	.063	.061	.017	.007	.014	.022	.244	.037	.281
	2001	10,582	.048	.051	.065	.064	.017	.007	.014	.023	.251	.037	.289
	2002	10,929	.049	.050	.065	.065	.017	.007	.013	.023	.253	.036	.289
	2003	11,456	.050	.050	.063	.066	.017	.007	.012	.023	.253	.035	.288
	2004	12,217	.050	.049	.061	.065	.017	.007	.011	.022	.247	.033	.280
	2005	13,039	.050	.048	.059	.065	.016	.007	.011	.021	.244	.032	.276
	2006	13,816	.050	.048	.056	.065	.016	.007	.010	.021	.242	.031	.273
	2007	14,474	.051	.049	.054	.066	.016	.007	.010	.021	.243	.030	.273
	2008	14,770	.053	.052	.055	.070	.017	.007	.010	.021	.254	.031	.285
	2009	14,478	.060	.059	.060	.080	.018	.008	.011	.023	.284	.033	.317
	2010	15,049	.060	.060	.058	.082	.018	.008	.010	.022	.285	.032	.317
	2011	15,600	.060	.060	.056	.083	.018	.008	.010	.021	.284	.031	.314
	2012	16,254	.061	.061	.054	.085	.018	.009	.009	.021	.288	.030	.318
	2013	16,881	.060	.061	.052	.086	.019	.009	.009	.020	.287	.030	.316
	2014	17,608	.058	.059	.048	.085	.019	.009	.009	.020	.278	.029	.308
	2015	18,295	.055	.057	.046	.085	.019	.009	.009	.019	.271	.029	.300
	2016	18,805	.052	.055	.044	.083	.019	.009	.009	.019	.262	.028	.291
	2017	19,612	.048	.052	.041	.081	.019	.009	.009	.018	.251	.027	.279
	2018	20,657	.045	.050	.039	.078	.019	.009	.009	.018	.240	.027	.267
	2019	21,540	.044	.048	.038	.076	.020	.009	.009	.017	.235	.026	.261
	2020	21,375	.044	.049	.038	.076	.021	.009	.009	.018	.237	.027	.264
	2021	23,726	.038	.044	.033	.067	.020	.009	.008	.016	.210	.024	.234
	2022	26,055	.035	.041	.031	.061	.020	.008	.008	.015	.196	.023	.219
	2023	27,812	.035	.040	.031	.059	.021	.009	.008	.016	.195	.024	.219
	2024	29,298	.035	.039	.031	.056	.021	.009	.008	.016	.191	.024	.215
	2025	30,781	.035	.038	.030	.054	.021	.009	.008	.016	.187	.024	.211
Projected:
	2026	32,289	.035	.036	.029	.051	.021	.009	.008	.016	.182	.024	.205
	2027	33,495	.034	.035	.029	.049	.021	.009	.008	.016	.179	.023	.202
	2028	34,730	.034	.034	.029	.048	.021	.009	.007	.016	.176	.023	.199
	2029	36,049	.034	.033	.029	.046	.021	.010	.007	.016	.174	.023	.197
	2030	37,466	.034	.032	.029	.045	.021	.010	.007	.016	.171	.023	.194
	2031	38,956	.033	.032	.029	.044	.020	.010	.007	.016	.168	.023	.191
	2032	40,519	.033	.031	.028	.043	.020	.010	.007	.016	.166	.023	.189
	2033	42,151	.033	.031	.028	.043	.019	.011	.006	.016	.164	.023	.186
	2034	43,845	.032	.030	.028	.042	.019	.011	.006	.016	.161	.023	.184
	2035	45,582	.031	.030	.028	.041	.018	.011	.006	.017	.159	.023	.182
	2036	47,386	.031	.029	.027	.041	.018	.011	.006	.017	.157	.023	.180
	2037	49,255	.030	.029	.027	.040	.017	.011	.006	.017	.155	.023	.178
	2038	51,197	.030	.029	.027	.040	.016	.012	.006	.017	.153	.023	.176
	2039	53,202	.029	.028	.026	.040	.016	.012	.006	.017	.151	.023	.174
	2040	55,285	.028	.028	.026	.040	.015	.012	.006	.017	.149	.023	.171
	2041	57,435	.028	.027	.025	.040	.015	.012	.005	.017	.147	.022	.170
	2042	59,666	.028	.027	.025	.040	.014	.012	.005	.017	.145	.022	.168
	2043	61,972	.027	.026	.024	.040	.014	.011	.005	.017	.144	.022	.166
	2044	64,347	.027	.026	.024	.039	.014	.011	.005	.017	.142	.022	.163
	2045	66,806	.027	.025	.024	.039	.014	.011	.005	.017	.140	.022	.161
	2046	69,351	.026	.025	.023	.038	.014	.011	.005	.017	.138	.021	.159
	2047	71,986	.026	.024	.023	.038	.014	.011	.004	.017	.137	.021	.158
	2048	74,716	.026	.024	.023	.038	.014	.011	.004	.016	.135	.021	.156
	2049	77,542	.026	.023	.023	.037	.014	.011	.004	.016	.133	.021	.154
	2050	80,467	.025	.023	.022	.037	.014	.010	.004	.016	.132	.020	.152

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a

Projected values in current dollars based on the intermediate economic assumptions of the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report.

Notes: 

1. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.
2. Historical GDP amounts subject to revision.

3. A complete table of historical and projected values is available at www.ssa.gov/OACT/ssir/SSI26.

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1

Public Law 104-121 and Public Law 104-193 modified several SSI eligibility rules. See section V.A for more information.