In August of 2002, the Social Security Administration's
Office of the Chief Actuary
began development of a stochastic model to to project a probability
distribution for future outcomes of the financial status of the Social
Security Trust Funds. The first version of this model (Version 2002.1) was
completed in February 2003. It was based on the intermediate assumptions and
the methods of the 2002 Trustees Report.
Appendix E of the most
recent Trustees Report presents an overview of the most recent
methodology and results of our stochastic model.
In addition, Actuarial Study #117
provides a more extensive description based on the 2004 version of the
model and its results.