The information that follows was not produced by SSA's Office of the Chief Actuary. Please contact the listed organization directly with comments or questions. Some of the documents listed below are in PDF and require Adobe Acrobat Reader or equivalent software.
Congressional Budget Office
"Quantifying Uncertainty in the Analysis of Long-Term Social Security Projections" was published November 2005.
Lee, Anderson, and Tuljapurkar
"Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund" (PDF format) was published in January 2003 by Shripad Tuljapurkar and Michael Anderson of Mountain View Research, in conjunction with Ronald Lee and the Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging at the University of California, Berkeley.
Policy Simulation Group
Stochastic simulation model developed by Martin Holmer of the Policy Simulation Group
SSA's Office of Policy
Stochastic Models of the Social Security Trust Funds compares results from the stochastic models presented here.