2023 OASDI Trustees Report

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Since the Trustees submitted the 2022 report to Congress, there have been no changes in law, policy, or regulation that are expected to have significant financial effects on the OASDI program. However, there have been a number of notable regulatory and judicial developments related to immigration policy.
At the time of the 2022 report, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services had paused processing of first-time applications under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy but continued to process renewal applications. Since then, there have been several regulatory and judicial developments:
Changes in DACA policy affect OASDI program operations because those who apply for and receive deferred action status are eligible for work authorization, which leads to additional workers covered by the OASDI program, increased payroll tax revenue, and subsequently increased benefit cost. The estimates presented in last year’s report reflected the assumption that the DACA program would be fully in effect by the middle of 2022, consistent with the Administration’s intent. Because of the court challenges, the estimates in this year’s report incorporate an additional one-year delay in the resumption of processing new applications, to the middle of 2023. This change is estimated to have negligible financial effects on the OASDI program over both the short-range and long-range projection periods.
Sections IV.A.4 and IV.B.6 of this report provide further description of the magnitude of effects on the financial status of the OASDI program.

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