Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001 
                    Actuarial Study No. 115 
                    Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.  | 
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|   Year  | 
     
   65-NRA1
 
 | 
    |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|   Male  | 
  ||||||||||||
|   1.9  | 
      3.7  | 
      3.1  | 
      3.0  | 
      3.2  | 
      3.5  | 
      2.8  | 
      2.3  | 
      1.6  | 
      0.1  | 
      25.1  | 
  ||
|   1.0  | 
      3.5  | 
      5.3  | 
      6.9  | 
      8.2  | 
      10.1  | 
      11.0  | 
      11.1  | 
      4.1  | 
      .1  | 
      61.3  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      1.9  | 
      2.2  | 
      1.9  | 
      1.6  | 
      1.5  | 
      1.7  | 
      1.8  | 
      2.2  | 
      .1  | 
      15.4  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      2.0  | 
      3.0  | 
      3.1  | 
      2.7  | 
      2.4  | 
      2.0  | 
      2.0  | 
      3.0  | 
      .1  | 
      20.8  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      1.5  | 
      2.5  | 
      2.6  | 
      2.4  | 
      2.0  | 
      1.8  | 
      2.0  | 
      2.8  | 
      .1  | 
      18.1  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      1.7  | 
      2.8  | 
      2.9  | 
      2.7  | 
      2.4  | 
      2.0  | 
      2.0  | 
      3.1  | 
      .1  | 
      20.1  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      1.6  | 
      2.8  | 
      3.1  | 
      2.8  | 
      2.4  | 
      2.1  | 
      1.9  | 
      2.6  | 
      .1  | 
      19.9  | 
  ||
|   .6  | 
      2.0  | 
      3.7  | 
      4.1  | 
      3.6  | 
      3.2  | 
      2.4  | 
      1.9  | 
      2.4  | 
      .1  | 
      24.0  | 
  ||
|   .8  | 
      2.9  | 
      4.8  | 
      5.6  | 
      5.2  | 
      4.0  | 
      2.9  | 
      2.2  | 
      2.4  | 
      .1  | 
      30.9  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.0  | 
      5.0  | 
      6.2  | 
      5.6  | 
      4.5  | 
      3.1  | 
      2.1  | 
      2.3  | 
      .1  | 
      32.6  | 
  ||
|   .9  | 
      4.5  | 
      8.8  | 
      13.8  | 
      16.1  | 
      14.4  | 
      9.1  | 
      5.0  | 
      3.7  | 
      .4  | 
      76.6  | 
  ||
|   .6  | 
      2.8  | 
      4.2  | 
      5.6  | 
      5.6  | 
      4.6  | 
      3.0  | 
      1.7  | 
      1.9  | 
      .1  | 
      30.2  | 
  ||
|   .6  | 
      2.8  | 
      4.6  | 
      5.9  | 
      6.3  | 
      5.5  | 
      3.9  | 
      2.8  | 
      2.4  | 
      .2  | 
      34.9  | 
  ||
|   .6  | 
      3.0  | 
      5.5  | 
      7.6  | 
      7.9  | 
      6.7  | 
      4.9  | 
      2.9  | 
      2.5  | 
      .2  | 
      41.8  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.2  | 
      4.1  | 
      5.6  | 
      6.2  | 
      5.4  | 
      4.0  | 
      2.4  | 
      2.1  | 
      .2  | 
      32.7  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.1  | 
      3.6  | 
      4.9  | 
      5.6  | 
      5.1  | 
      3.7  | 
      2.4  | 
      2.0  | 
      .2  | 
      30.1  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      1.9  | 
      3.1  | 
      4.3  | 
      5.0  | 
      4.7  | 
      3.4  | 
      2.2  | 
      1.9  | 
      .2  | 
      27.3  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.0  | 
      3.0  | 
      4.1  | 
      5.0  | 
      4.8  | 
      3.5  | 
      2.4  | 
      2.0  | 
      .3  | 
      27.6  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.1  | 
      2.9  | 
      3.9  | 
      4.8  | 
      4.8  | 
      3.6  | 
      2.4  | 
      2.0  | 
      .3  | 
      27.3  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.2  | 
      2.8  | 
      3.8  | 
      4.5  | 
      4.7  | 
      3.6  | 
      2.5  | 
      2.1  | 
      .4  | 
      27.0  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.2  | 
      2.7  | 
      3.6  | 
      4.2  | 
      4.6  | 
      3.6  | 
      2.4  | 
      2.2  | 
      .4  | 
      26.5  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.3  | 
      2.8  | 
      3.5  | 
      4.1  | 
      4.6  | 
      3.7  | 
      2.5  | 
      2.3  | 
      .5  | 
      26.8  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.3  | 
      2.9  | 
      3.4  | 
      4.0  | 
      4.5  | 
      3.7  | 
      2.5  | 
      2.4  | 
      .6  | 
      26.8  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.3  | 
      3.0  | 
      3.3  | 
      3.9  | 
      4.4  | 
      3.8  | 
      2.6  | 
      2.5  | 
      .6  | 
      26.8  | 
  ||
|   Female  | 
  ||||||||||||
|   .3  | 
      .7  | 
      .6  | 
      .6  | 
      .9  | 
      1.3  | 
      1.8  | 
      1.7  | 
      1.5  | 
      9.3  | 
  |||
|   .3  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.8  | 
      2.5  | 
      3.1  | 
      4.4  | 
      4.2  | 
      4.7  | 
      1.6  | 
      23.8  | 
  |||
|   .2  | 
      .9  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.0  | 
      .9  | 
      .9  | 
      .9  | 
      .9  | 
      1.1  | 
      8.0  | 
  |||
|   .2  | 
      .9  | 
      1.2  | 
      1.3  | 
      1.4  | 
      1.3  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.2  | 
      9.6  | 
  |||
|   .2  | 
      .6  | 
      1.0  | 
      1.2  | 
      1.2  | 
      1.2  | 
      .9  | 
      1.0  | 
      1.3  | 
      8.6  | 
  |||
|   .2  | 
      .7  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.4  | 
      1.5  | 
      1.4  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.0  | 
      1.2  | 
      9.7  | 
  |||
|   .2  | 
      .7  | 
      1.2  | 
      1.4  | 
      1.5  | 
      1.4  | 
      1.2  | 
      1.0  | 
      1.1  | 
      9.8  | 
  |||
|   .3  | 
      .9  | 
      1.6  | 
      1.8  | 
      2.0  | 
      1.9  | 
      1.4  | 
      1.1  | 
      .9  | 
      11.9  | 
  |||
|   .4  | 
      1.5  | 
      2.3  | 
      2.6  | 
      2.9  | 
      2.5  | 
      1.9  | 
      1.2  | 
      1.0  | 
      16.3  | 
  |||
|   .4  | 
      1.5  | 
      2.5  | 
      3.1  | 
      3.2  | 
      2.9  | 
      2.1  | 
      1.3  | 
      1.0  | 
      18.0  | 
  |||
|   .5  | 
      2.0  | 
      3.7  | 
      5.4  | 
      5.8  | 
      5.2  | 
      3.5  | 
      1.9  | 
      1.3  | 
      .1  | 
      29.4  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      1.5  | 
      2.5  | 
      3.4  | 
      4.1  | 
      3.8  | 
      2.8  | 
      1.6  | 
      1.1  | 
      .1  | 
      21.4  | 
  ||
|   .4  | 
      1.6  | 
      2.4  | 
      3.6  | 
      4.1  | 
      4.2  | 
      3.2  | 
      2.0  | 
      1.4  | 
      .1  | 
      22.9  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      1.6  | 
      3.1  | 
      4.3  | 
      5.1  | 
      5.0  | 
      4.0  | 
      2.5  | 
      1.5  | 
      .1  | 
      27.7  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      1.3  | 
      2.4  | 
      3.2  | 
      4.0  | 
      4.0  | 
      3.2  | 
      2.1  | 
      1.2  | 
      .1  | 
      21.8  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      1.2  | 
      2.1  | 
      2.8  | 
      3.6  | 
      3.8  | 
      3.0  | 
      2.0  | 
      1.2  | 
      .1  | 
      20.0  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.9  | 
      2.5  | 
      3.2  | 
      3.4  | 
      2.8  | 
      1.9  | 
      1.1  | 
      .1  | 
      18.1  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.8  | 
      2.4  | 
      3.2  | 
      3.5  | 
      2.8  | 
      2.0  | 
      1.2  | 
      .1  | 
      18.4  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.7  | 
      2.3  | 
      3.1  | 
      3.5  | 
      2.9  | 
      2.0  | 
      1.2  | 
      .1  | 
      18.2  | 
  ||
|   .3  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.7  | 
      2.3  | 
      3.0  | 
      3.4  | 
      2.9  | 
      2.0  | 
      1.2  | 
      .2  | 
      18.1  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.6  | 
      2.2  | 
      2.8  | 
      3.3  | 
      2.9  | 
      2.0  | 
      1.3  | 
      .2  | 
      17.7  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.7  | 
      2.1  | 
      2.7  | 
      3.4  | 
      2.9  | 
      2.1  | 
      1.4  | 
      .3  | 
      17.9  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.7  | 
      2.1  | 
      2.6  | 
      3.3  | 
      3.0  | 
      2.1  | 
      1.4  | 
      .3  | 
      17.9  | 
  ||
|   .2  | 
      1.1  | 
      1.7  | 
      2.0  | 
      2.6  | 
      3.2  | 
      3.0  | 
      2.2  | 
      1.5  | 
      .3  | 
      17.8  | 
  ||
|   Total  | 
  ||||||||||||
|   2.2  | 
      4.4  | 
      3.7  | 
      3.6  | 
      4.0  | 
      4.8  | 
      4.6  | 
      3.9  | 
      3.0  | 
      .1  | 
      34.4  | 
  ||
|   1.3  | 
      4.6  | 
      7.1  | 
      9.4  | 
      11.4  | 
      14.5  | 
      15.2  | 
      15.8  | 
      5.7  | 
      .2  | 
      85.1  | 
  ||
|   .8  | 
      2.8  | 
      3.3  | 
      2.8  | 
      2.6  | 
      2.4  | 
      2.5  | 
      2.8  | 
      3.3  | 
      .2  | 
      23.5  | 
  ||
|   .6  | 
      2.9  | 
      4.2  | 
      4.4  | 
      4.1  | 
      3.6  | 
      3.1  | 
      3.1  | 
      4.1  | 
      .2  | 
      30.4  | 
  ||
|   .5  | 
      2.1  | 
      3.5  | 
      3.8  | 
      3.6  | 
      3.2  | 
      2.7  | 
      2.9  | 
      4.1  | 
      .1  | 
      26.7  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      2.4  | 
      3.9  | 
      4.3  | 
      4.2  | 
      3.8  | 
      3.2  | 
      3.0  | 
      4.3  | 
      .1  | 
      29.9  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      2.3  | 
      4.0  | 
      4.5  | 
      4.3  | 
      3.8  | 
      3.3  | 
      2.8  | 
      3.7  | 
      .1  | 
      29.7  | 
  ||
|   .9  | 
      2.9  | 
      5.3  | 
      5.9  | 
      5.6  | 
      5.1  | 
      3.8  | 
      3.0  | 
      3.3  | 
      .1  | 
      35.9  | 
  ||
|   1.2  | 
      4.3  | 
      7.1  | 
      8.2  | 
      8.1  | 
      6.5  | 
      4.8  | 
      3.4  | 
      3.4  | 
      .1  | 
      47.3  | 
  ||
|   1.1  | 
      4.5  | 
      7.5  | 
      9.2  | 
      8.8  | 
      7.4  | 
      5.2  | 
      3.3  | 
      3.3  | 
      .1  | 
      50.6  | 
  ||
|   1.3  | 
      6.5  | 
      12.5  | 
      19.2  | 
      21.9  | 
      19.6  | 
      12.6  | 
      6.9  | 
      4.9  | 
      .5  | 
      106.0  | 
  ||
|   1.0  | 
      4.3  | 
      6.8  | 
      9.0  | 
      9.7  | 
      8.5  | 
      5.8  | 
      3.3  | 
      3.0  | 
      .2  | 
      51.5  | 
  ||
|   .9  | 
      4.3  | 
      6.9  | 
      9.5  | 
      10.5  | 
      9.7  | 
      7.1  | 
      4.8  | 
      3.8  | 
      .3  | 
      57.8  | 
  ||
|   .9  | 
      4.6  | 
      8.6  | 
      11.9  | 
      13.0  | 
      11.8  | 
      8.9  | 
      5.5  | 
      4.1  | 
      .3  | 
      69.5  | 
  ||
|   .8  | 
      3.5  | 
      6.5  | 
      8.9  | 
      10.2  | 
      9.5  | 
      7.2  | 
      4.5  | 
      3.3  | 
      .3  | 
      54.5  | 
  ||
|   .8  | 
      3.2  | 
      5.7  | 
      7.8  | 
      9.2  | 
      8.9  | 
      6.7  | 
      4.4  | 
      3.2  | 
      .2  | 
      50.1  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.0  | 
      5.0  | 
      6.7  | 
      8.3  | 
      8.2  | 
      6.2  | 
      4.1  | 
      3.0  | 
      .3  | 
      45.4  | 
  ||
|   .8  | 
      3.1  | 
      4.8  | 
      6.5  | 
      8.2  | 
      8.3  | 
      6.4  | 
      4.3  | 
      3.2  | 
      .4  | 
      46.0  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.2  | 
      4.6  | 
      6.2  | 
      7.8  | 
      8.2  | 
      6.4  | 
      4.4  | 
      3.2  | 
      .5  | 
      45.4  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.3  | 
      4.4  | 
      6.1  | 
      7.5  | 
      8.2  | 
      6.5  | 
      4.5  | 
      3.3  | 
      .5  | 
      45.1  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.3  | 
      4.4  | 
      5.8  | 
      7.0  | 
      7.9  | 
      6.5  | 
      4.4  | 
      3.4  | 
      .7  | 
      44.2  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.4  | 
      4.5  | 
      5.7  | 
      6.8  | 
      7.9  | 
      6.7  | 
      4.6  | 
      3.7  | 
      .8  | 
      44.7  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.5  | 
      4.6  | 
      5.5  | 
      6.6  | 
      7.8  | 
      6.7  | 
      4.7  | 
      3.8  | 
      .9  | 
      44.6  | 
  ||
|   .7  | 
      3.5  | 
      4.7  | 
      5.3  | 
      6.5  | 
      7.6  | 
      6.7  | 
      4.8  | 
      3.9  | 
      .8  | 
      44.6  | 
  ||
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." 2 Fewer than 50.  | 
  
· Historical figures based on SSA administrative records.
· Projected terminations computed by applying projected recovery termination rates to exposure of disabled worker in force population.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
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List of Studies
December 26, 2001