Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

A. NUMBER OF DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) BENEFICIARIES

Table III.A8—DI Disabled Worker Incidence Rates
(Awards per thousand exposed, by age and gender, calendar years awarded 1975-2010)
Year
  15-19
  20-24
  25-29
  30-34
  35-39
  40-44
  45-49
  50-54
  55-59
  60-64
  65-NRA 1
Total
  Gross
  Adjusted
Male
1975
0.48
1.60
2.11
2.61
3.50
5.27
7.93
13.41
22.94
32.69
33.11
7.79
7.72
1980
.32
.82
1.12
1.60
2.51
3.90
6.13
9.99
17.06
21.41
15.18
5.04
5.43
1985
.27
.95
1.57
2.01
2.59
3.64
5.47
9.15
14.38
17.08
10.35
4.63
4.93
1990
.40
1.09
1.75
2.40
3.01
3.75
5.15
8.39
14.83
17.59
9.96
4.70
5.04
1991
.52
1.25
2.02
2.79
3.48
4.36
5.69
9.36
16.11
19.01
11.05
5.27
5.62
1992
.58
1.62
2.52
3.42
4.26
5.13
6.52
10.42
17.97
21.26
12.08
6.14
6.48
1993
.60
1.50
2.39
3.35
4.12
5.13
6.39
10.08
17.15
20.18
11.52
5.98
6.26
1994
.49
1.33
2.11
3.07
3.93
4.73
6.07
9.72
16.73
19.94
11.47
5.74
5.97
1995
.45
1.19
1.88
2.83
3.69
4.60
5.97
9.56
16.86
20.23
11.01
5.64
5.84
1996
.42
1.08
1.67
2.51
3.34
4.21
5.61
8.97
15.68
18.62
10.15
5.24
5.38
1997
.38
1.03
1.42
2.06
2.77
3.68
4.98
8.15
14.57
17.43
9.72
4.77
4.83
1998
.38
1.05
1.41
1.99
2.71
3.74
5.10
8.24
14.22
17.14
9.37
4.80
4.80
1999
.40
1.13
1.45
1.91
2.73
3.76
5.09
8.13
13.95
17.00
10.01
4.83
4.78
2000
.42
1.26
1.51
1.84
2.66
3.64
4.91
7.93
13.71
16.93
9.60
4.80
4.70
2001
.42
1.25
1.50
1.81
2.63
3.60
4.85
7.87
13.56
17.60
9.64
4.86
4.70
2002
.42
1.26
1.50
1.82
2.65
3.62
4.88
7.90
13.59
18.43
10.47
5.00
4.76
2003
.42
1.26
1.50
1.82
2.64
3.61
4.87
7.88
13.56
19.14
10.90
5.13
4.79
2004
.42
1.26
1.49
1.82
2.62
3.60
4.85
7.85
13.53
19.85
11.02
5.24
4.81
2005
.42
1.26
1.49
1.81
2.61
3.60
4.86
7.87
13.65
20.61
11.12
5.37
4.86
2006
.42
1.26
1.49
1.81
2.61
3.61
4.86
7.87
13.69
20.89
11.07
5.48
4.88
2007
.42
1.27
1.50
1.81
2.62
3.63
4.88
7.91
13.71
20.97
10.87
5.58
4.89
2008
.42
1.28
1.50
1.81
2.64
3.64
4.91
7.96
13.79
21.27
10.10
5.69
4.93
2009
.42
1.28
1.51
1.81
2.65
3.65
4.94
8.00
13.84
21.60
11.41
5.82
4.96
2010
.43
1.30
1.53
1.83
2.67
3.69
5.01
8.12
14.05
21.80
11.53
5.97
5.03
Female
1975
.22
.77
1.26
2.17
3.11
4.91
7.07
11.63
18.86
23.29
20.05
6.19
6.17
1980
.19
.38
.66
1.18
2.08
3.19
4.89
7.50
11.96
13.10
8.80
3.35
3.85
1985
.12
.48
.85
1.33
1.83
2.72
4.08
6.78
9.79
10.49
6.46
3.00
3.35
1990
.22
.60
1.02
1.50
2.10
2.90
4.30
6.90
11.03
11.24
6.45
3.26
3.63
1991
.28
.74
1.18
1.78
2.50
3.36
4.79
7.83
12.45
12.32
7.14
3.75
4.12
1992
.38
1.02
1.56
2.18
3.05
4.05
5.51
8.89
13.94
14.31
8.06
4.48
4.82
1993
.35
.97
1.56
2.21
3.09
4.01
5.55
8.69
13.58
13.71
7.90
4.48
4.75
1994
.32
.87
1.45
2.19
3.06
4.03
5.47
8.86
13.89
14.02
7.36
4.54
4.76
1995
.32
.81
1.38
2.21
3.16
4.18
5.61
9.26
14.70
14.94
8.19
4.75
4.94
1996
.27
.75
1.29
2.12
3.11
4.19
5.61
9.13
14.17
14.29
7.70
4.69
4.82
1997
.26
.71
1.19
1.95
2.87
3.99
5.29
8.55
13.25
13.64
7.31
4.47
4.53
1998
.23
.77
1.24
1.98
2.96
4.10
5.54
8.74
13.45
13.71
7.22
4.64
4.64
1999
.25
.85
1.32
1.90
2.94
4.12
5.50
8.32
13.27
13.86
7.69
4.66
4.60
2000
.30
.95
1.38
1.89
2.87
3.93
5.15
7.93
12.65
13.51
6.70
4.55
4.43
2001
.29
.93
1.35
1.85
2.82
3.86
5.05
7.81
12.41
13.92
7.20
4.57
4.39
2002
.29
.93
1.35
1.85
2.83
3.86
5.05
7.79
12.36
14.46
7.74
4.67
4.41
2003
.29
.93
1.33
1.84
2.79
3.82
5.00
7.70
12.21
14.83
7.94
4.72
4.39
2004
.28
.92
1.31
1.82
2.75
3.78
4.95
7.63
12.12
15.23
7.97
4.78
4.38
2005
.28
.92
1.30
1.81
2.73
3.77
4.93
7.60
12.12
15.62
7.99
4.86
4.38
2006
.28
.92
1.31
1.81
2.74
3.79
4.95
7.63
12.19
15.85
7.99
4.96
4.41
2007
.28
.92
1.30
1.80
2.74
3.78
4.94
7.61
12.14
15.84
7.80
5.02
4.40
2008
.28
.92
1.31
1.80
2.75
3.79
4.96
7.64
12.17
16.04
7.30
5.10
4.42
2009
.28
.92
1.31
1.80
2.75
3.77
4.96
7.64
12.16
16.14
8.18
5.18
4.42
2010
.29
.92
1.31
1.81
2.77
3.79
5.00
7.70
12.26
16.13
8.21
5.27
4.45
Total
1975
.38
1.26
1.78
2.47
3.38
5.16
7.63
12.75
21.40
29.19
28.10
7.21
7.01
1980
.26
.63
.92
1.44
2.36
3.65
5.66
9.03
15.04
18.15
12.65
4.36
4.70
1985
.20
.74
1.25
1.72
2.28
3.27
4.89
8.17
12.47
14.34
8.77
3.93
4.20
1990
.32
.86
1.41
2.00
2.62
3.38
4.78
7.74
13.18
14.86
8.43
4.06
4.39
1991
.40
1.01
1.63
2.34
3.05
3.92
5.29
8.68
14.51
16.10
9.38
4.59
4.93
1992
.48
1.34
2.08
2.87
3.73
4.65
6.07
9.73
16.20
18.19
10.34
5.39
5.71
1993
.48
1.25
2.01
2.84
3.67
4.63
6.01
9.45
15.56
17.32
9.92
5.30
5.56
1994
.41
1.11
1.81
2.68
3.54
4.42
5.80
9.33
15.46
17.30
9.66
5.20
5.41
1995
.39
1.02
1.65
2.55
3.46
4.41
5.80
9.42
15.89
17.87
9.74
5.24
5.42
1996
.35
.92
1.49
2.33
3.24
4.20
5.61
9.04
14.99
16.68
9.04
4.99
5.12
1997
.33
.88
1.31
2.01
2.82
3.82
5.12
8.34
13.97
15.73
8.61
4.63
4.69
1998
.31
.91
1.33
1.99
2.82
3.90
5.30
8.47
13.86
15.59
8.41
4.73
4.73
1999
.33
.99
1.39
1.90
2.82
3.92
5.28
8.22
13.64
15.57
8.97
4.75
4.70
2000
.36
1.11
1.45
1.86
2.76
3.77
5.02
7.93
13.22
15.36
8.27
4.68
4.58
2001
.36
1.10
1.43
1.83
2.72
3.72
4.95
7.84
13.02
15.90
8.51
4.72
4.55
2002
.36
1.10
1.43
1.84
2.73
3.73
4.96
7.85
13.00
16.59
9.20
4.84
4.60
2003
.36
1.10
1.42
1.83
2.71
3.71
4.93
7.79
12.91
17.14
9.53
4.93
4.61
2004
.35
1.10
1.41
1.82
2.68
3.68
4.90
7.74
12.85
17.70
9.61
5.02
4.61
2005
.35
1.10
1.40
1.81
2.67
3.68
4.89
7.74
12.91
18.27
9.67
5.13
4.64
2006
.35
1.10
1.40
1.81
2.67
3.69
4.91
7.76
12.96
18.52
9.64
5.23
4.67
2007
.35
1.10
1.40
1.80
2.68
3.70
4.91
7.76
12.94
18.54
9.45
5.31
4.67
2008
.35
1.11
1.41
1.81
2.69
3.71
4.93
7.80
12.99
18.78
8.79
5.41
4.69
2009
.36
1.11
1.41
1.81
2.70
3.71
4.95
7.82
13.01
18.99
9.90
5.51
4.72
2010
.36
1.12
1.43
1.82
2.72
3.74
5.01
7.91
13.15
19.07
9.96
5.63
4.76

1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age."

Sources:

Age-specific and gross rates computed as the ratio of annual awards, to exposure of the disability insured population not receiving benefits.

Total adjusted rate by sex computed as the ratio of total age-adjusted awards, to total exposure of the disability insured population not receiving benefits as of calendar year 1998 (standard population).

Total adjusted rate for male and female combined computed as the ratio of total age-sex-adjusted awards, to total combined exposure of the disability insured population not receiving benefits as of calendar year 1998 (standard population).

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.


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December 26, 2001