Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

B. NUMBER OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) BENEFICIARIES

Table III.B43—Student Children of Deceased Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status
(Calendar years 1975-2010)
[Numbers in thousands]
Year
  In force beginning
of period
Awards
  Number of gross terminations
  In force
end of period
Withheld
  In current-payment status,
end of period
  Percent of
population
age 18-20
  Number
  Percent of
in force
  Number
1975
466.9
2.27
289.9
242.4
514.4
4.00
20.6
493.8
1976
514.4
2.39
309.3
284.7
539.0
2.92
15.7
523.3
1977
539.0
2.52
326.9
327.0
538.9
1.99
10.7
528.2
1978
538.9
2.35
305.9
309.1
535.6
7.17
38.4
497.3
1979
535.6
2.38
310.2
321.0
524.8
7.69
40.4
484.5
1980
524.8
2.46
317.1
307.6
534.4
15.84
84.6
449.7
1981
534.4
2.43
309.6
306.0
537.9
13.97
75.2
462.7
1982
537.9
2.13
267.6
433.0
372.5
17.80
66.3
306.2
1983
372.5
1.46
179.7
324.9
227.3
16.37
37.2
190.1
1984
227.3
1.30
155.1
243.4
139.0
19.30
26.8
112.2
1985
139.0
1.18
135.2
205.7
68.5
16.46
11.3
57.3
1986
68.5
1.10
125.6
129.6
64.6
21.16
13.7
50.9
1987
64.6
1.07
122.7
125.5
61.8
24.10
14.9
46.9
1988
61.8
1.14
133.9
123.8
71.9
20.05
14.4
57.5
1989
71.9
1.02
119.5
123.8
67.6
20.55
13.9
53.7
1990
67.6
1.01
113.8
115.2
66.2
20.06
13.3
52.9
1991
66.2
1.02
109.0
108.6
66.6
17.18
11.4
55.1
1992
66.6
1.04
108.1
106.0
68.7
22.15
15.2
53.5
1993
68.7
1.06
109.4
108.1
70.0
22.82
16.0
54.0
1994
70.0
1.01
106.0
107.4
68.6
24.30
16.7
52.0
1995
68.6
.98
104.8
103.9
69.6
26.50
18.4
51.2
1996
69.6
.98
107.0
105.5
71.2
26.63
18.9
52.2
1997
71.2
1.00
112.6
110.0
73.7
25.97
19.1
54.5
1998
73.7
.97
112.1
111.9
73.9
30.11
22.3
51.6
1999
73.9
.95
112.0
114.7
71.2
21.28
15.2
56.1
2000
71.2
.93
111.8
111.9
71.1
27.52
19.6
51.6
2001
71.1
.93
112.0
111.2
71.9
27.33
19.7
52.3
2002
71.9
.93
112.3
111.9
72.3
27.45
19.8
52.5
2003
72.3
.94
114.0
112.9
73.4
27.32
20.1
53.3
2004
73.4
.94
114.8
114.4
73.8
27.34
20.2
53.6
2005
73.8
.94
115.7
115.0
74.4
27.35
20.3
54.0
2006
74.4
.94
117.7
116.4
75.7
27.24
20.6
55.0
2007
75.7
.95
121.0
118.9
77.7
27.03
21.0
56.7
2008
77.7
.95
123.8
122.1
79.3
26.96
21.4
57.9
2009
79.3
.94
124.3
124.0
79.6
27.15
21.6
58.0
2010
79.6
.93
123.2
123.7
79.1
27.45
21.7
57.4

Sources:

· Historical figures from SSA administrative records; future figures computed by adding awards to number in force at beginning of year, and applying termination rates.

· Historical award rates computed by dividing the number of awards by the population age 18-20, less the number already in force; future rates projected based on historical trend and judgment.

· Historical award figures from SSA administrative records; future figures computed by applying award rate to population age 18-20 less the number of student children already in force.

· Historical termination figures estimated from SSA administrative records; future figures computed by applying termination rate to number in force.

· Historical percent withheld figures computed by dividing number withheld by number in force; future figures projected based on historical trends.

· Historical withheld figures estimated from SSA administrative records; future figures computed by applying withheld rate to number in force.

· Historical in current-payment status figures from SSA administrative records; future figures computed by subtracting number withheld from number in force.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.

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December 26, 2001