Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
Contents Glossary




 

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

B. NUMBER OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) BENEFICIARIES

Table III.B62—Mother Beneficiaries In Force, Withheld, and In Current-Payment Status
(End of calendar years 1975-2000 and calendar half years 2001-10)
[Numbers in thousands]
Calendar period
  Minor and
disabled children of
deceased
workers 1
In force
Withheld
  Number
in current-
payment
status
  Excess
  Percent of
minor and
disabled children
  Number
  Excess
  Percent of
number in force
  Number
1975
2,433.2
26.508
645.0
...
10.368
66.9
578.1
...
1976
2,397.4
26.557
636.7
...
10.217
65.0
571.6
...
1977
2,362.3
26.931
636.2
...
10.144
64.5
571.7
...
1978
2,291.5
27.391
627.6
...
10.174
63.9
563.8
...
1979
2,233.4
27.779
620.4
...
9.854
61.1
559.3
...
1980
2,170.2
28.095
609.7
...
10.314
62.9
546.8
...
1981
2,103.4
28.085
590.7
...
10.265
60.6
530.1
...
1982
2,042.3
27.644
564.6
...
12.074
68.2
496.4
...
1983
1,501.0
28.905
433.9
...
11.743
50.9
382.9
...
1984
1,475.7
28.310
417.8
...
12.603
52.6
365.1
...
1985
1,454.2
27.825
404.6
...
12.465
50.4
354.2
...
1986
1,429.7
26.905
384.7
...
13.078
50.3
334.3
...
1987
1,410.1
26.091
367.9
...
14.705
54.1
313.8
...
1988
1,407.1
25.294
355.9
...
14.933
53.1
302.8
...
1989
1,419.7
24.475
347.5
...
14.648
50.9
296.6
...
1990
1,435.6
23.678
339.9
...
15.144
51.5
288.4
...
1991
1,456.6
22.981
334.7
...
15.040
50.3
284.4
...
1992
1,483.5
22.028
326.8
...
14.794
48.3
278.4
...
1993
1,510.3
21.250
321.0
...
14.762
47.4
273.6
...
1994
1,537.4
20.344
312.8
...
14.413
45.1
267.7
...
1995
1,556.5
19.635
305.6
...
14.979
45.8
259.8
...
1996
1,566.6
18.826
294.9
...
21.575
63.6
231.3
...
1997
1,568.6
17.993
282.2
...
22.080
62.3
219.9
...
1998
1,570.7
17.328
272.2
...
22.624
61.6
210.6
...
1999
1,573.8
16.686
262.6
...
22.887
60.1
202.5
...
2000
1,578.8
15.971
252.2
...
23.369
58.9
193.2
...
2001-II
1,586.3
15.688
248.9
0.003
26.397
65.7
183.2
-0.037
2001-IV
1,578.0
15.481
244.3
...
23.388
57.1
187.2
...
2002-II
1,585.2
15.224
241.3
.003
26.412
63.7
177.6
-.037
2002-IV
1,576.7
15.041
237.1
...
23.399
55.5
181.7
...
2003-II
1,582.6
14.828
234.7
.003
26.409
62.0
172.7
-.037
2003-IV
1,572.8
14.688
231.0
...
23.382
54.0
177.0
...
2004-II
1,576.8
14.513
228.8
.003
26.390
60.4
168.5
-.037
2004-IV
1,565.1
14.409
225.5
...
23.358
52.7
172.8
...
2005-II
1,566.4
14.272
223.6
.003
26.364
58.9
164.6
-.037
2005-IV
1,552.1
14.204
220.5
...
23.328
51.4
169.0
...
2006-II
1,551.4
14.095
218.7
.003
26.333
57.6
161.1
-.037
2006-IV
1,535.3
14.053
215.8
...
23.295
50.3
165.5
...
2007-II
1,534.6
13.953
214.1
.003
26.298
56.3
157.8
-.037
2007-IV
1,518.7
13.919
211.4
...
23.254
49.2
162.2
...
2008-II
1,518.8
13.820
209.9
.003
26.261
55.1
154.8
-.037
2008-IV
1,503.8
13.787
207.3
...
23.219
48.1
159.2
...
2009-II
1,504.9
13.677
205.8
.003
26.236
54.0
151.8
-.037
2009-IV
1,491.1
13.633
203.3
...
23.202
47.2
156.1
...
2010-II
1,493.3
13.523
201.9
.003
26.220
52.9
149.0
-.037
2010-IV
1,480.6
13.479
199.6
...
23.185
46.3
153.3
...

1 1982 and earlier includes all minor and disabled children of deceased workers; 1983 and later includes minor children under age 16 and all disabled children of deceased workers.

Sources:

Numbers of minor and disabled children of deceased workers shown earlier.

Ratios of number in force to number of minor and disabled children computed by dividing corresponding numbers.

Historical numbers in force from In Force Table; future end of December figures computed by applying single year of age award rates (awards per minor survivor child under age 16 and disabled survivor child awards) and termination rates; future end of June figures interpolated using last historical ratio of June figure to average of December figures (excess).

Historical ratios of number withheld to number in force computed by dividing corresponding numbers; future end of December ratios projected to remain at last known rate by single year of age; future end of June ratios computed by dividing corresponding numbers.

Historical numbers withheld computed by subtracting number in current-payment status from number in force; future end of December figures computed by applying applicable percentage to number in force; future June figures computed by subtracting number in current-payment status from number in force.

Historical numbers in current-payment status from 1-A Table Current-Payment Supplement; future end of December figures computed by subtracting number withheld from number in force; future end of June figures interpolated using last historical ratio of June figure to average of December figures (excess).

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.


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December 26, 2001