Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

II. ASSUMPTIONS

Table II.7—Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions
(Calendar years 1975-2010)
Calendar year
  Coverage rate 1
(percent)
Insured status
  Disability
incidence rate 2
(per thousand)
  Disability
termination rate 3
(per thousand)
  Fully 4
(percent)
  Disability 5
(percent)
1975
59.11
70.72
58.43
7.01
137.61
1976
59.53
71.11
58.68
6.44
136.85
1977
60.39
71.76
59.30
6.56
140.78
1978
62.04
72.24
61.32
5.69
148.01
1979
62.40
73.12
63.26
4.99
151.32
1980
62.08
73.50
64.04
4.70
145.38
1981
60.92
73.93
64.82
4.09
155.61
1982
59.68
73.97
65.33
3.60
175.90
1983
59.65
74.84
65.23
4.56
169.13
1984
61.56
74.60
65.58
4.20
141.43
1985
62.02
75.12
66.39
4.20
129.34
1986
62.79
75.21
67.07
4.18
125.67
1987
63.66
75.57
67.65
4.09
125.73
1988
65.04
75.79
68.47
3.99
124.65
1989
65.61
76.21
69.38
4.08
119.79
1990
65.64
76.62
70.08
4.39
114.88
1991
64.69
76.69
70.39
4.93
109.85
1992
64.50
76.79
70.57
5.71
106.02
1993
64.93
77.13
70.80
5.56
100.65
1994
65.26
77.12
71.12
5.41
96.89
1995
65.94
77.69
71.54
5.42
96.87
1996
66.39
77.83
71.90
5.12
91.83
1997
67.00
78.64
72.14
4.69
99.47
1998
67.63
78.80
72.45
4.73
85.48
1999
67.92
79.24
72.84
4.70
87.38
2000
68.02
79.48
73.28
4.58
88.62
2001
67.81
79.87
73.71
4.55
83.92
2002
67.71
80.27
74.00
4.60
83.36
2003
67.53
80.70
74.26
4.61
76.54
2004
67.28
81.15
74.44
4.61
76.38
2005
67.05
81.61
74.58
4.64
76.47
2006
66.83
82.07
74.71
4.67
76.93
2007
66.58
82.52
74.87
4.67
77.62
2008
66.41
83.03
75.03
4.69
79.35
2009
66.25
83.60
75.23
4.72
88.51
2010
66.08
84.12
75.43
4.76
86.49

1 The coverage rate is the number of persons with any covered employment during the year as a percentage of the total population aged 15 or older at the end of the year.

2 The disability incidence rate is the number of awards to disabled worker beneficiaries per thousand insured persons (not receiving benefits) under normal retirement age and is age-sex-adjusted based on the insured population as of January 1, 1998.

3 The disability termination rate is the number of disabled worker terminations (due to all reasons including death, recovery, and attainment of normal retirement age) per thousand disabled worker beneficiaries.

4 The fully insured rate is the number of fully insured persons aged 62 or older expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 62 or older, as of December 31.

5 The disability insured rate is the number of disability insured persons expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 15 to normal retirement age, as of December 31.

Sources:

· Covered persons used in calculating coverage rate from the Annual Statistical Supplement (historical), or the Office of the Chief Actuary (projected). Population figures from the Office of the Chief Actuary.

· Fully insured persons used in calculating fully insured rate from the Office of Research, Evaluation and Statistics (historical), or the Office of the Chief Actuary (projected based on historical relationship to population and coverage rates).

· Disability insured persons used in calculating disability insured rate from the Office of Research, Evaluation and Statistics (historical), or the Office of the Chief Actuary (projected based on historical relationship to fully insured and labor force rates).

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A6 and V.B6 for low-cost and high-cost alternatives, respectively.

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December 26, 2001