Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

A. LOW-COST ASSUMPTIONS

Table V.A12—Trust Fund Ratios 1 of the OASI, DI, and Combined Trust Funds
(Low-cost alternative, calendar quarters 2001-10)
Calendar period
OASI Trust Fund
DI Trust Fund
OASI and DI Trust
Funds, combined
2001-I
246.3
198.2
239.8
2001-II
250.4
203.7
244.0
2001-III
263.5
216.7
257.1
2001-IV
265.0
218.8
258.7

2002-I
273.0
225.6
266.4
2002-II
277.3
230.3
270.8
2002-III
291.7
243.5
284.9
2002-IV
293.0
244.6
286.2

2003-I
301.8
251.2
294.6
2003-II
306.3
255.0
299.0
2003-III
321.4
267.7
313.7
2003-IV
322.6
267.8
314.7

2004-I
332.3
274.4
323.9
2004-II
336.3
276.8
327.6
2004-III
351.8
288.9
342.6
2004-IV
352.8
288.0
343.2

2005-I
363.4
294.7
353.2
2005-II
367.2
296.1
356.6
2005-III
383.7
308.0
372.4
2005-IV
384.9
306.6
373.1

2006-I
395.5
312.5
382.9
2006-II
399.2
313.3
386.1
2006-III
416.0
324.6
402.1
2006-IV
416.5
322.3
402.0

2007-I
427.5
327.9
412.1
2007-II
430.7
328.1
414.8
2007-III
447.9
339.2
431.0
2007-IV
447.6
336.4
430.3

2008-I
458.5
341.9
440.3
2008-II
460.7
341.6
442.1
2008-III
477.5
352.7
457.9
2008-IV
475.9
349.6
456.1

2009-I
486.6
355.6
466.1
2009-II
487.5
355.2
466.8
2009-III
504.0
366.2
482.4
2009-IV
501.6
362.6
479.8

2010-I
512.8
368.9
490.3
2010-II
512.5
367.5
489.8
2010-III
529.2
378.6
505.7
2010-IV
526.3
374.9
502.6

1 Represents assets at beginning of period, plus advance tax transfers (if applicable), as a percentage of disbursements during the following 12-month period

Sources:

· Assets and disbursements shown earlier.

· Trust fund ratios computed by addition and division of corresponding figures.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report low-cost set of assumptions.

Table V.A13—Comparison of Income Rates and Cost Rates of the OASI, DI,
and Combined Trust Funds
(Low-cost alternative, calendar years 2001-10)
[As a percentage of taxable payroll]
Year
OASI Trust Fund
DI Trust Fund
Total
Income rate
Cost rate
Balance
Income rate
Cost rate
Balance
Income rate
Cost rate
Balance
2001
10.90
8.99
1.91
1.82
1.42
0.40
12.72
10.41
2.30
2002
10.90
8.85
2.05
1.82
1.43
.39
12.71
10.27
2.44
2003
10.90
8.78
2.12
1.82
1.45
.37
12.72
10.23
2.49
2004
10.91
8.70
2.21
1.82
1.47
.34
12.73
10.18
2.55
2005
10.92
8.65
2.26
1.82
1.50
.31
12.73
10.16
2.58
2006
10.92
8.61
2.31
1.82
1.53
.29
12.74
10.14
2.60
2007
10.92
8.60
2.33
1.82
1.57
.25
12.75
10.16
2.58
2008
10.93
8.62
2.31
1.82
1.59
.23
12.75
10.21
2.54
2009
10.94
8.69
2.25
1.82
1.62
.21
12.76
10.31
2.45
2010
10.95
8.79
2.16
1.82
1.63
.19
12.78
10.43
2.35

Sources:

· Effective taxable payroll from econometric model in the Office of the Chief Actuary.

· Income rate computed as sum of (a) employee-employer payroll tax rate, and (b) income tax revenue plus payments from the general fund of the Treasury divided by effective taxable payroll.

· Cost rate computed as total disbursements divided by effective taxable payroll.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report low-cost set of assumptions.

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December 26, 2001