Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA2
|
Total
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
107.01
|
89.43
|
84.67
|
81.10
|
96.98
|
104.93
|
100.25
|
92.40
|
83.16
|
70.54
|
69.25
|
83.39
|
|
1985
|
73.42
|
59.21
|
55.42
|
48.79
|
42.69
|
48.16
|
56.69
|
62.91
|
68.58
|
71.75
|
85.40
|
63.88
|
|
1990
|
43.52
|
55.65
|
64.99
|
60.53
|
56.48
|
50.07
|
52.62
|
58.00
|
63.16
|
71.59
|
79.56
|
62.17
|
|
1995
|
53.59
|
59.58
|
65.08
|
72.73
|
63.96
|
56.83
|
50.23
|
51.87
|
54.71
|
62.88
|
97.54
|
59.14
|
|
1996
|
62.88
|
61.81
|
62.00
|
65.86
|
57.91
|
51.15
|
47.83
|
47.95
|
51.32
|
61.87
|
92.62
|
55.44
|
|
1997
|
67.58
|
70.96
|
78.59
|
79.76
|
78.30
|
74.90
|
68.19
|
58.50
|
54.84
|
60.86
|
97.50
|
65.98
|
|
1998
|
48.10
|
58.09
|
57.40
|
50.13
|
45.12
|
42.47
|
42.96
|
43.16
|
48.16
|
57.87
|
92.63
|
49.28
|
|
1999
|
39.37
|
53.72
|
60.77
|
54.00
|
46.60
|
44.50
|
45.23
|
45.21
|
49.69
|
58.17
|
91.95
|
50.79
|
|
2000
|
42.44
|
49.07
|
67.06
|
61.98
|
55.00
|
49.24
|
48.34
|
47.00
|
49.11
|
56.91
|
98.27
|
52.84
|
|
2001
|
55.27
|
40.76
|
54.27
|
55.27
|
48.64
|
45.07
|
45.80
|
45.03
|
47.88
|
55.23
|
86.04
|
49.68
|
|
2002
|
33.76
|
37.19
|
54.49
|
56.92
|
49.59
|
45.99
|
46.31
|
46.07
|
47.04
|
54.69
|
87.37
|
49.87
|
|
2003
|
40.15
|
33.68
|
46.13
|
48.65
|
45.17
|
42.42
|
43.53
|
43.42
|
44.86
|
52.50
|
99.21
|
47.20
|
|
2004
|
42.52
|
37.58
|
44.91
|
46.43
|
43.94
|
42.64
|
42.77
|
44.21
|
43.85
|
51.02
|
109.98
|
46.80
|
|
2005
|
43.31
|
37.80
|
45.08
|
46.56
|
43.92
|
42.42
|
42.40
|
43.64
|
43.22
|
50.04
|
90.64
|
46.83
|
|
2006
|
44.80
|
38.90
|
46.73
|
48.11
|
45.08
|
43.16
|
42.84
|
43.73
|
43.08
|
49.59
|
87.89
|
47.28
|
|
2007
|
46.32
|
39.79
|
48.27
|
49.53
|
46.09
|
43.80
|
43.17
|
43.71
|
42.82
|
49.02
|
85.25
|
47.67
|
|
2008
|
47.84
|
41.56
|
50.78
|
51.88
|
48.02
|
45.37
|
44.41
|
44.61
|
43.46
|
49.55
|
83.88
|
48.89
|
|
2009
|
48.61
|
41.95
|
51.91
|
52.91
|
48.66
|
45.65
|
44.34
|
44.20
|
42.79
|
48.78
|
92.96
|
49.18
|
|
2010
|
49.75
|
43.11
|
53.23
|
54.18
|
49.93
|
46.83
|
45.41
|
45.17
|
43.70
|
49.61
|
90.99
|
49.98
|
|
2011
|
47.31
|
41.47
|
52.08
|
52.95
|
48.42
|
44.88
|
43.14
|
42.55
|
40.84
|
46.59
|
87.05
|
47.66
|
|
2012
|
47.41
|
42.44
|
53.40
|
54.18
|
49.39
|
45.40
|
43.36
|
42.43
|
40.49
|
46.02
|
86.93
|
47.84
|
|
2013
|
46.99
|
42.38
|
53.16
|
53.90
|
49.14
|
45.02
|
42.94
|
41.90
|
39.92
|
45.31
|
88.06
|
47.42
|
|
2014
|
46.65
|
42.26
|
52.92
|
53.66
|
48.89
|
44.68
|
42.51
|
41.37
|
39.33
|
44.60
|
86.31
|
46.84
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
98.49
|
83.10
|
72.39
|
76.08
|
90.11
|
97.80
|
96.33
|
74.60
|
61.77
|
45.75
|
52.99
|
64.58
|
|
1985
|
16.81
|
66.57
|
61.08
|
49.04
|
46.61
|
49.37
|
55.38
|
53.44
|
52.55
|
50.48
|
53.51
|
51.81
|
|
1990
|
78.59
|
52.54
|
49.56
|
42.42
|
40.11
|
43.07
|
46.74
|
49.29
|
48.92
|
51.74
|
52.97
|
48.07
|
|
1995
|
41.14
|
52.61
|
50.54
|
45.25
|
40.94
|
40.40
|
40.39
|
40.87
|
41.90
|
45.89
|
70.35
|
43.30
|
|
1996
|
59.84
|
54.38
|
50.65
|
45.46
|
40.75
|
38.70
|
39.43
|
39.08
|
39.56
|
44.29
|
65.62
|
41.74
|
|
1997
|
55.46
|
62.01
|
57.60
|
55.65
|
52.28
|
48.23
|
45.10
|
41.63
|
39.73
|
43.35
|
67.12
|
45.49
|
|
1998
|
35.97
|
58.99
|
47.63
|
42.53
|
38.59
|
38.35
|
38.54
|
37.97
|
37.51
|
42.25
|
68.15
|
40.09
|
|
1999
|
43.62
|
54.27
|
51.58
|
42.30
|
39.41
|
37.65
|
38.89
|
37.94
|
37.49
|
42.30
|
66.29
|
40.11
|
|
2000
|
31.61
|
44.54
|
55.18
|
50.28
|
43.80
|
41.78
|
40.47
|
39.18
|
37.85
|
41.44
|
68.63
|
41.57
|
|
2001
|
30.34
|
39.90
|
46.27
|
43.53
|
39.54
|
38.54
|
37.83
|
36.53
|
36.89
|
40.08
|
63.41
|
38.98
|
|
2002
|
35.36
|
35.42
|
45.93
|
44.86
|
41.47
|
39.61
|
39.23
|
37.03
|
36.46
|
39.67
|
66.38
|
39.39
|
|
2003
|
30.27
|
32.13
|
42.96
|
40.92
|
36.72
|
35.63
|
35.39
|
34.66
|
34.97
|
38.67
|
73.10
|
37.10
|
|
2004
|
19.10
|
33.69
|
38.71
|
38.71
|
35.44
|
35.68
|
35.14
|
34.58
|
34.23
|
37.16
|
75.41
|
36.36
|
|
2005
|
18.19
|
33.83
|
38.83
|
38.87
|
35.51
|
35.63
|
34.99
|
34.31
|
33.88
|
36.63
|
61.35
|
36.33
|
|
2006
|
17.97
|
34.78
|
40.14
|
40.17
|
36.52
|
36.36
|
35.51
|
34.56
|
33.92
|
36.42
|
59.49
|
36.73
|
|
2007
|
18.10
|
35.56
|
41.32
|
41.36
|
37.37
|
37.00
|
35.93
|
34.70
|
33.84
|
36.09
|
57.60
|
37.03
|
|
2008
|
18.84
|
37.28
|
43.46
|
43.46
|
39.12
|
38.55
|
37.27
|
35.75
|
34.66
|
36.78
|
56.64
|
38.17
|
|
2009
|
18.15
|
37.64
|
44.26
|
44.24
|
39.59
|
38.77
|
37.28
|
35.50
|
34.18
|
36.17
|
63.13
|
38.33
|
|
2010
|
19.45
|
38.88
|
45.59
|
45.56
|
40.91
|
39.99
|
38.46
|
36.61
|
35.24
|
37.16
|
61.76
|
39.25
|
|
2011
|
17.24
|
37.12
|
44.19
|
44.13
|
39.21
|
38.03
|
36.28
|
34.15
|
32.56
|
34.29
|
58.97
|
36.94
|
|
2012
|
17.59
|
37.94
|
45.28
|
45.16
|
40.00
|
38.56
|
36.59
|
34.18
|
32.38
|
33.92
|
58.97
|
37.09
|
|
2013
|
17.48
|
37.85
|
45.11
|
44.91
|
39.80
|
38.28
|
36.27
|
33.79
|
31.95
|
33.42
|
59.69
|
36.75
|
|
2014
|
17.35
|
37.72
|
44.94
|
44.69
|
39.60
|
38.00
|
35.94
|
33.40
|
31.51
|
32.92
|
58.65
|
36.29
|
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
104.66
|
87.77
|
81.13
|
79.66
|
94.97
|
102.83
|
99.05
|
86.67
|
75.99
|
62.22
|
63.85
|
77.32
|
|
1985
|
58.76
|
61.29
|
57.05
|
48.86
|
43.88
|
48.54
|
56.27
|
59.84
|
63.22
|
64.59
|
74.50
|
59.95
|
|
1990
|
54.92
|
54.67
|
60.14
|
54.80
|
51.11
|
47.75
|
50.57
|
54.92
|
58.15
|
64.76
|
70.30
|
57.35
|
|
1995
|
48.90
|
57.03
|
59.86
|
62.93
|
55.67
|
50.69
|
46.47
|
47.50
|
49.70
|
56.55
|
87.65
|
53.15
|
|
1996
|
61.69
|
59.05
|
57.79
|
58.34
|
51.54
|
46.36
|
44.54
|
44.33
|
46.59
|
55.19
|
82.62
|
50.12
|
|
1997
|
62.99
|
67.57
|
70.59
|
70.55
|
68.35
|
64.41
|
58.91
|
51.49
|
48.62
|
54.04
|
86.07
|
57.82
|
|
1998
|
43.76
|
58.43
|
53.55
|
47.13
|
42.52
|
40.80
|
41.12
|
40.96
|
43.66
|
51.64
|
83.23
|
45.51
|
|
1999
|
40.94
|
53.93
|
57.06
|
49.27
|
43.67
|
41.66
|
42.54
|
42.08
|
44.43
|
51.70
|
81.89
|
46.32
|
|
2000
|
38.31
|
47.27
|
62.15
|
57.13
|
50.33
|
46.10
|
44.94
|
43.60
|
44.18
|
50.47
|
86.45
|
48.04
|
|
2001
|
45.54
|
40.42
|
50.89
|
50.25
|
44.76
|
42.28
|
42.31
|
41.28
|
43.00
|
48.81
|
76.80
|
45.04
|
|
2002
|
34.37
|
36.48
|
50.80
|
51.64
|
46.04
|
43.21
|
43.17
|
42.03
|
42.30
|
48.22
|
78.62
|
45.27
|
|
2003
|
36.30
|
33.06
|
44.75
|
45.17
|
41.41
|
39.40
|
39.88
|
39.46
|
40.41
|
46.46
|
88.14
|
42.71
|
|
2004
|
33.30
|
36.01
|
42.21
|
42.88
|
40.09
|
39.49
|
39.31
|
39.80
|
39.50
|
44.90
|
95.17
|
42.10
|
|
2005
|
32.77
|
36.18
|
42.35
|
42.97
|
40.06
|
39.31
|
39.01
|
39.32
|
38.97
|
44.06
|
77.83
|
42.06
|
|
2006
|
33.49
|
37.20
|
43.85
|
44.38
|
41.08
|
40.01
|
39.45
|
39.46
|
38.88
|
43.66
|
75.33
|
42.45
|
|
2007
|
34.48
|
38.03
|
45.24
|
45.66
|
41.96
|
40.60
|
39.79
|
39.50
|
38.65
|
43.16
|
72.85
|
42.76
|
|
2008
|
35.53
|
39.75
|
47.57
|
47.89
|
43.75
|
42.13
|
41.04
|
40.44
|
39.35
|
43.73
|
71.51
|
43.90
|
|
2009
|
35.37
|
40.11
|
48.54
|
48.79
|
44.26
|
42.36
|
40.97
|
40.08
|
38.73
|
42.99
|
79.37
|
44.09
|
|
2010
|
36.57
|
41.29
|
49.85
|
50.09
|
45.51
|
43.52
|
42.07
|
41.09
|
39.69
|
43.86
|
77.61
|
44.92
|
|
2011
|
34.62
|
39.60
|
48.58
|
48.75
|
43.88
|
41.53
|
39.82
|
38.52
|
36.90
|
40.87
|
74.11
|
42.57
|
|
2012
|
35.23
|
40.52
|
49.78
|
49.89
|
44.74
|
42.02
|
40.06
|
38.45
|
36.61
|
40.34
|
73.97
|
42.71
|
|
2013
|
35.05
|
40.45
|
49.55
|
49.62
|
44.51
|
41.66
|
39.66
|
37.95
|
36.09
|
39.69
|
74.81
|
42.30
|
|
2014
|
34.79
|
40.33
|
49.32
|
49.38
|
44.27
|
41.32
|
39.26
|
37.47
|
35.57
|
39.05
|
73.35
|
41.75
|
| 1Death, recovery, and "other" reasons except conversion to retired worker benefit at normal retirement age. 2Does not reflect termination due to conversion at normal retirement age. See table II.9 for overall disability termination rates |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions