Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA1
|
Total
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
18.87
|
20.96
|
17.98
|
11.67
|
9.25
|
7.34
|
5.75
|
4.26
|
2.88
|
1.78
|
...
|
4.64
|
|
1985
|
33.71
|
38.46
|
35.49
|
28.43
|
22.04
|
17.38
|
13.26
|
10.36
|
7.26
|
4.19
|
...
|
11.47
|
|
1990
|
13.76
|
45.22
|
56.88
|
41.14
|
31.67
|
23.33
|
17.34
|
12.76
|
9.18
|
5.68
|
...
|
17.18
|
|
1995
|
17.26
|
52.45
|
55.16
|
47.66
|
38.66
|
30.21
|
20.74
|
14.36
|
10.01
|
6.32
|
...
|
20.57
|
|
1996
|
19.16
|
61.09
|
67.35
|
59.36
|
47.53
|
36.66
|
25.06
|
16.74
|
10.84
|
7.07
|
...
|
24.31
|
|
1997
|
20.16
|
59.23
|
73.54
|
59.71
|
47.83
|
36.37
|
25.30
|
17.22
|
11.16
|
6.56
|
...
|
23.96
|
|
1998
|
32.95
|
58.85
|
74.46
|
64.33
|
50.92
|
38.87
|
27.83
|
18.40
|
11.93
|
6.82
|
...
|
25.10
|
|
1999
|
18.07
|
57.30
|
76.29
|
65.17
|
53.99
|
39.91
|
28.73
|
18.68
|
12.49
|
7.47
|
...
|
25.57
|
|
2000
|
23.13
|
54.65
|
68.76
|
62.58
|
51.77
|
39.69
|
28.91
|
18.51
|
12.23
|
7.23
|
...
|
24.54
|
|
2001
|
19.04
|
48.10
|
62.08
|
60.94
|
51.64
|
40.51
|
29.39
|
19.25
|
12.47
|
7.38
|
...
|
24.31
|
|
2002
|
24.75
|
43.03
|
56.13
|
57.27
|
50.12
|
39.66
|
29.43
|
19.42
|
12.44
|
7.54
|
...
|
23.50
|
|
2003
|
24.12
|
45.63
|
50.51
|
51.67
|
46.42
|
38.02
|
28.16
|
18.70
|
12.21
|
7.49
|
4.32
|
22.00
|
|
2004
|
19.17
|
46.00
|
51.00
|
50.15
|
45.32
|
37.35
|
28.14
|
19.17
|
12.58
|
7.60
|
6.60
|
21.62
|
|
2005
|
40.97
|
46.08
|
51.02
|
52.39
|
47.56
|
39.48
|
30.26
|
19.17
|
12.51
|
7.54
|
5.53
|
21.95
|
|
2006
|
35.12
|
46.07
|
51.03
|
52.53
|
47.66
|
39.54
|
30.34
|
19.16
|
12.48
|
7.55
|
5.53
|
21.56
|
|
2007
|
33.53
|
45.99
|
51.05
|
52.54
|
47.63
|
39.50
|
30.32
|
19.15
|
12.50
|
7.61
|
5.53
|
21.15
|
|
2008
|
35.49
|
45.89
|
51.07
|
52.66
|
47.69
|
39.61
|
30.39
|
19.12
|
12.51
|
7.63
|
5.53
|
20.80
|
|
2009
|
39.19
|
45.71
|
51.07
|
52.78
|
47.80
|
39.81
|
30.48
|
19.12
|
12.53
|
7.60
|
5.53
|
20.61
|
|
2010
|
36.04
|
45.65
|
51.07
|
52.89
|
47.95
|
40.00
|
30.56
|
19.10
|
12.53
|
7.53
|
5.53
|
20.35
|
|
2011
|
29.56
|
45.74
|
51.07
|
52.88
|
47.99
|
40.00
|
30.51
|
19.08
|
12.52
|
7.50
|
5.53
|
20.03
|
|
2012
|
28.35
|
45.86
|
51.06
|
52.86
|
48.03
|
39.92
|
30.47
|
19.05
|
12.51
|
7.51
|
5.53
|
19.80
|
|
2013
|
28.31
|
45.97
|
51.05
|
52.84
|
48.04
|
39.84
|
30.47
|
19.02
|
12.49
|
7.52
|
5.53
|
19.62
|
|
2014
|
28.30
|
46.01
|
51.04
|
52.82
|
48.07
|
39.84
|
30.56
|
19.02
|
12.49
|
7.54
|
5.53
|
19.45
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
25.29
|
18.77
|
14.33
|
7.74
|
5.50
|
5.20
|
3.88
|
3.22
|
2.17
|
1.29
|
...
|
3.14
|
|
1985
|
10.20
|
32.04
|
25.32
|
18.03
|
13.63
|
10.37
|
9.94
|
7.60
|
5.12
|
2.69
|
...
|
7.39
|
|
1990
|
14.49
|
34.89
|
42.49
|
27.03
|
22.13
|
19.11
|
14.87
|
10.44
|
7.53
|
4.35
|
...
|
12.73
|
|
1995
|
7.84
|
27.49
|
32.21
|
26.22
|
20.66
|
17.17
|
14.40
|
10.37
|
7.49
|
4.23
|
...
|
12.46
|
|
1996
|
22.50
|
33.87
|
35.92
|
29.32
|
22.83
|
18.84
|
14.49
|
10.81
|
7.23
|
4.45
|
...
|
13.17
|
|
1997
|
23.50
|
36.58
|
38.21
|
30.68
|
23.91
|
19.54
|
15.66
|
11.14
|
7.35
|
4.58
|
...
|
13.56
|
|
1998
|
13.30
|
34.76
|
41.59
|
33.65
|
25.91
|
20.84
|
16.69
|
11.77
|
7.88
|
4.57
|
...
|
14.27
|
|
1999
|
18.63
|
32.45
|
42.74
|
33.58
|
26.45
|
21.08
|
16.74
|
11.94
|
8.30
|
4.86
|
...
|
14.36
|
|
2000
|
8.65
|
31.44
|
37.20
|
29.40
|
24.54
|
20.04
|
15.76
|
11.05
|
7.59
|
4.44
|
...
|
13.09
|
|
2001
|
8.32
|
26.83
|
34.86
|
29.28
|
24.62
|
20.24
|
15.89
|
11.24
|
7.56
|
4.43
|
...
|
12.97
|
|
2002
|
14.91
|
24.89
|
30.60
|
27.76
|
23.13
|
19.38
|
15.52
|
11.34
|
7.64
|
4.31
|
...
|
12.45
|
|
2003
|
17.29
|
22.34
|
26.11
|
23.90
|
21.00
|
17.70
|
13.98
|
10.31
|
7.23
|
4.28
|
3.14
|
11.22
|
|
2004
|
11.71
|
22.75
|
26.07
|
21.96
|
20.11
|
17.34
|
13.74
|
10.22
|
7.28
|
4.48
|
3.46
|
10.92
|
|
2005
|
10.40
|
22.75
|
26.06
|
24.14
|
22.28
|
19.46
|
15.86
|
10.21
|
7.24
|
4.44
|
3.29
|
11.48
|
|
2006
|
10.64
|
22.77
|
26.07
|
24.26
|
22.39
|
19.53
|
15.95
|
10.20
|
7.22
|
4.45
|
3.29
|
11.32
|
|
2007
|
10.59
|
22.73
|
26.05
|
24.27
|
22.38
|
19.52
|
15.94
|
10.20
|
7.24
|
4.48
|
3.29
|
11.14
|
|
2008
|
10.38
|
22.69
|
26.05
|
24.37
|
22.46
|
19.64
|
16.03
|
10.19
|
7.24
|
4.49
|
3.29
|
10.99
|
|
2009
|
10.00
|
22.64
|
26.05
|
24.49
|
22.55
|
19.78
|
16.13
|
10.19
|
7.25
|
4.47
|
3.29
|
10.92
|
|
2010
|
10.38
|
22.61
|
26.05
|
24.58
|
22.67
|
19.91
|
16.22
|
10.19
|
7.24
|
4.43
|
3.29
|
10.82
|
|
2011
|
11.16
|
22.64
|
26.05
|
24.57
|
22.68
|
19.91
|
16.19
|
10.18
|
7.24
|
4.42
|
3.29
|
10.66
|
|
2012
|
11.30
|
22.68
|
26.05
|
24.55
|
22.70
|
19.88
|
16.17
|
10.17
|
7.23
|
4.43
|
3.29
|
10.54
|
|
2013
|
11.28
|
22.73
|
26.05
|
24.53
|
22.70
|
19.84
|
16.18
|
10.15
|
7.22
|
4.43
|
3.29
|
10.45
|
|
2014
|
11.27
|
22.77
|
26.05
|
24.54
|
22.71
|
19.84
|
16.23
|
10.15
|
7.22
|
4.44
|
3.29
|
10.37
|
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
20.74
|
20.38
|
16.91
|
10.53
|
8.15
|
6.70
|
5.18
|
3.92
|
2.64
|
1.62
|
...
|
4.15
|
|
1985
|
27.40
|
36.64
|
32.55
|
25.23
|
19.47
|
15.18
|
12.20
|
9.46
|
6.54
|
3.68
|
...
|
10.13
|
|
1990
|
14.00
|
41.93
|
52.29
|
36.61
|
28.50
|
21.91
|
16.47
|
11.93
|
8.59
|
5.22
|
...
|
15.64
|
|
1995
|
13.63
|
43.25
|
46.78
|
39.82
|
32.02
|
25.24
|
18.27
|
12.75
|
9.01
|
5.53
|
...
|
17.45
|
|
1996
|
20.44
|
50.88
|
55.52
|
48.04
|
38.16
|
29.68
|
20.85
|
14.28
|
9.37
|
6.06
|
...
|
19.91
|
|
1997
|
21.45
|
50.58
|
59.78
|
48.33
|
38.42
|
29.57
|
21.33
|
14.64
|
9.57
|
5.78
|
...
|
19.73
|
|
1998
|
25.81
|
49.51
|
61.30
|
52.01
|
40.82
|
31.45
|
23.14
|
15.55
|
10.21
|
5.91
|
...
|
20.61
|
|
1999
|
18.28
|
47.50
|
62.50
|
52.19
|
42.60
|
32.01
|
23.58
|
15.75
|
10.67
|
6.40
|
...
|
20.82
|
|
2000
|
17.50
|
45.33
|
55.48
|
48.60
|
40.24
|
31.32
|
23.17
|
15.23
|
10.18
|
6.06
|
...
|
19.61
|
|
2001
|
14.80
|
39.56
|
50.39
|
47.19
|
39.95
|
31.74
|
23.41
|
15.68
|
10.28
|
6.12
|
...
|
19.35
|
|
2002
|
21.03
|
35.75
|
44.95
|
44.14
|
38.19
|
30.72
|
23.20
|
15.78
|
10.28
|
6.14
|
...
|
18.60
|
|
2003
|
21.45
|
36.21
|
39.78
|
39.03
|
34.99
|
28.91
|
21.75
|
14.88
|
9.96
|
6.08
|
3.81
|
17.16
|
|
2004
|
16.16
|
36.50
|
39.99
|
37.07
|
33.81
|
28.24
|
21.56
|
15.04
|
10.17
|
6.21
|
5.24
|
16.77
|
|
2005
|
28.02
|
36.46
|
39.98
|
39.11
|
35.84
|
30.23
|
23.62
|
15.00
|
10.10
|
6.15
|
4.53
|
17.16
|
|
2006
|
24.81
|
36.39
|
40.00
|
39.12
|
35.75
|
30.19
|
23.64
|
14.96
|
10.06
|
6.15
|
4.52
|
16.84
|
|
2007
|
23.86
|
36.23
|
40.01
|
39.05
|
35.58
|
30.05
|
23.56
|
14.94
|
10.05
|
6.19
|
4.51
|
16.49
|
|
2008
|
24.78
|
36.04
|
39.99
|
39.14
|
35.50
|
30.07
|
23.57
|
14.90
|
10.04
|
6.19
|
4.50
|
16.21
|
|
2009
|
26.42
|
35.80
|
39.94
|
39.24
|
35.46
|
30.16
|
23.60
|
14.87
|
10.03
|
6.15
|
4.49
|
16.04
|
|
2010
|
24.89
|
35.72
|
39.90
|
39.33
|
35.49
|
30.23
|
23.63
|
14.83
|
10.01
|
6.10
|
4.49
|
15.83
|
|
2011
|
21.86
|
35.81
|
39.86
|
39.31
|
35.45
|
30.12
|
23.54
|
14.79
|
9.99
|
6.06
|
4.48
|
15.56
|
|
2012
|
21.38
|
35.94
|
39.78
|
39.29
|
35.42
|
29.96
|
23.45
|
14.74
|
9.98
|
6.06
|
4.48
|
15.36
|
|
2013
|
21.39
|
36.05
|
39.71
|
39.24
|
35.40
|
29.82
|
23.42
|
14.69
|
9.96
|
6.06
|
4.47
|
15.20
|
|
2014
|
21.38
|
36.11
|
39.66
|
39.20
|
35.39
|
29.74
|
23.44
|
14.67
|
9.95
|
6.06
|
4.47
|
15.04
|
| 1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age—NRA." |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.