Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA 1
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male
|
|||||||||||
|
1980
|
73.20
|
87.00
|
94.70
|
96.20
|
96.00
|
95.10
|
93.30
|
89.30
|
81.90
|
61.00
|
...
|
|
1981
|
72.50
|
86.50
|
94.30
|
95.90
|
96.00
|
94.90
|
93.40
|
89.60
|
81.30
|
58.70
|
...
|
|
1982
|
69.70
|
86.00
|
94.20
|
95.60
|
95.90
|
94.70
|
92.80
|
89.70
|
81.90
|
57.20
|
...
|
|
1983
|
70.27
|
85.80
|
93.87
|
94.92
|
95.69
|
94.86
|
93.32
|
89.03
|
80.74
|
56.90
|
...
|
|
1984
|
69.82
|
86.06
|
93.90
|
95.16
|
95.72
|
95.14
|
93.31
|
88.94
|
80.22
|
56.02
|
...
|
|
1985
|
70.45
|
86.09
|
94.16
|
95.64
|
95.43
|
94.75
|
93.33
|
88.62
|
79.58
|
55.63
|
...
|
|
1986
|
69.86
|
86.86
|
94.40
|
95.19
|
95.22
|
94.45
|
92.90
|
88.93
|
79.04
|
54.88
|
...
|
|
1987
|
69.01
|
86.30
|
94.23
|
95.29
|
95.00
|
94.34
|
92.86
|
88.38
|
79.73
|
54.90
|
...
|
|
1988
|
69.60
|
86.09
|
93.99
|
95.00
|
94.87
|
94.28
|
93.03
|
88.42
|
79.33
|
54.34
|
...
|
|
1989
|
70.44
|
86.26
|
93.99
|
95.25
|
94.78
|
94.37
|
92.69
|
89.22
|
79.47
|
54.86
|
...
|
|
1990
|
68.39
|
85.39
|
93.96
|
94.73
|
94.89
|
93.99
|
92.28
|
88.87
|
79.88
|
55.58
|
...
|
|
1991
|
66.64
|
84.54
|
93.58
|
94.16
|
94.48
|
93.91
|
92.24
|
88.43
|
79.09
|
54.79
|
...
|
|
1992
|
67.08
|
84.24
|
93.36
|
94.58
|
94.20
|
93.32
|
92.13
|
88.95
|
78.99
|
54.71
|
...
|
|
1993
|
66.20
|
84.10
|
93.20
|
93.97
|
93.82
|
93.12
|
91.68
|
88.05
|
78.24
|
54.06
|
...
|
|
1994
|
66.06
|
83.90
|
92.21
|
93.27
|
92.96
|
92.74
|
91.01
|
86.73
|
76.94
|
52.74
|
...
|
|
1995
|
67.15
|
83.90
|
92.55
|
93.74
|
92.60
|
92.11
|
90.72
|
86.42
|
77.37
|
53.15
|
...
|
|
1996
|
66.10
|
83.29
|
93.14
|
93.55
|
92.87
|
92.05
|
90.80
|
86.94
|
77.86
|
54.28
|
...
|
|
1997
|
64.80
|
83.28
|
92.70
|
93.56
|
93.17
|
92.07
|
90.83
|
87.86
|
78.67
|
54.50
|
...
|
|
1998
|
65.20
|
82.74
|
92.96
|
93.73
|
93.14
|
92.26
|
90.82
|
87.28
|
78.40
|
55.41
|
...
|
|
1999
|
65.13
|
82.66
|
92.94
|
93.90
|
93.41
|
92.33
|
90.37
|
86.96
|
78.38
|
54.81
|
...
|
|
2000
|
65.86
|
83.30
|
92.73
|
94.30
|
93.34
|
92.18
|
90.20
|
86.80
|
77.05
|
56.61
|
...
|
|
2001
|
63.60
|
82.29
|
91.92
|
93.86
|
92.99
|
92.28
|
90.22
|
86.66
|
77.25
|
58.29
|
...
|
|
2002
|
61.98
|
81.41
|
91.62
|
93.52
|
92.82
|
91.68
|
90.19
|
86.56
|
78.01
|
57.61
|
...
|
|
2003
|
59.35
|
80.81
|
90.90
|
93.10
|
92.93
|
91.48
|
89.25
|
85.97
|
77.60
|
57.16
|
57.16
|
|
2004
|
59.32
|
80.55
|
90.68
|
92.96
|
92.90
|
91.36
|
89.44
|
85.41
|
77.76
|
56.70
|
56.70
|
|
2005
|
62.52
|
82.12
|
90.64
|
92.62
|
93.18
|
91.56
|
89.24
|
85.19
|
77.48
|
57.35
|
57.35
|
|
2006
|
63.86
|
82.78
|
91.50
|
92.75
|
93.12
|
91.27
|
89.29
|
85.09
|
77.55
|
57.95
|
57.95
|
|
2007
|
64.19
|
83.42
|
92.37
|
92.87
|
93.00
|
91.01
|
89.37
|
85.05
|
77.39
|
58.56
|
58.56
|
|
2008
|
64.28
|
83.52
|
92.50
|
92.80
|
93.08
|
91.09
|
89.54
|
85.01
|
77.29
|
59.18
|
59.18
|
|
2009
|
64.28
|
83.50
|
92.48
|
92.67
|
93.00
|
90.99
|
89.61
|
84.88
|
77.12
|
59.01
|
59.01
|
|
2010
|
64.25
|
83.48
|
92.48
|
92.54
|
92.90
|
90.96
|
89.67
|
84.78
|
76.88
|
58.97
|
58.97
|
|
2011
|
64.21
|
83.46
|
92.49
|
92.44
|
92.76
|
90.98
|
89.63
|
84.73
|
76.63
|
58.94
|
58.94
|
|
2012
|
64.19
|
83.45
|
92.49
|
92.38
|
92.59
|
90.93
|
89.60
|
84.72
|
76.50
|
58.77
|
58.77
|
|
2013
|
64.19
|
83.45
|
92.55
|
92.47
|
92.46
|
90.96
|
89.58
|
84.69
|
76.24
|
58.21
|
58.21
|
|
2014
|
64.18
|
83.45
|
92.63
|
92.58
|
92.43
|
91.01
|
89.55
|
84.71
|
75.86
|
57.53
|
57.53
|
|
Female
|
|||||||||||
|
1980
|
62.30
|
69.20
|
66.80
|
64.10
|
64.90
|
66.10
|
62.10
|
57.80
|
48.60
|
33.30
|
...
|
|
1981
|
61.30
|
69.80
|
67.70
|
65.90
|
66.40
|
67.40
|
64.20
|
58.20
|
49.40
|
32.70
|
...
|
|
1982
|
61.40
|
70.10
|
69.10
|
66.90
|
67.40
|
68.60
|
65.30
|
58.00
|
49.60
|
33.40
|
...
|
|
1983
|
60.94
|
70.16
|
69.97
|
68.09
|
68.24
|
69.27
|
65.33
|
58.53
|
48.78
|
33.80
|
...
|
|
1984
|
61.98
|
70.69
|
70.54
|
69.16
|
70.20
|
70.06
|
66.25
|
59.38
|
49.84
|
33.37
|
...
|
|
1985
|
61.93
|
72.09
|
71.52
|
70.40
|
71.71
|
71.84
|
67.76
|
60.84
|
50.32
|
33.41
|
...
|
|
1986
|
62.47
|
72.64
|
72.46
|
71.01
|
73.03
|
73.22
|
69.53
|
62.03
|
51.34
|
33.18
|
...
|
|
1987
|
62.44
|
73.27
|
73.42
|
71.61
|
73.98
|
75.14
|
70.66
|
63.15
|
52.17
|
33.16
|
...
|
|
1988
|
63.09
|
72.97
|
73.72
|
71.98
|
74.56
|
75.88
|
72.55
|
64.79
|
53.29
|
33.81
|
...
|
|
1989
|
62.67
|
72.65
|
74.08
|
73.17
|
74.99
|
77.15
|
74.34
|
65.90
|
54.79
|
35.63
|
...
|
|
1990
|
60.45
|
71.55
|
73.74
|
73.43
|
75.46
|
77.47
|
74.72
|
66.88
|
55.29
|
35.51
|
...
|
|
1991
|
59.63
|
70.35
|
73.36
|
73.06
|
75.56
|
77.63
|
75.35
|
67.80
|
55.67
|
35.10
|
...
|
|
1992
|
58.92
|
71.12
|
74.26
|
73.73
|
75.54
|
78.06
|
75.75
|
68.68
|
56.77
|
36.43
|
...
|
|
1993
|
60.37
|
71.14
|
73.69
|
73.35
|
75.35
|
77.93
|
76.42
|
69.80
|
57.09
|
37.03
|
...
|
|
1994
|
60.26
|
71.26
|
74.46
|
73.76
|
76.00
|
78.29
|
77.64
|
70.66
|
59.18
|
37.81
|
...
|
|
1995
|
61.74
|
70.56
|
74.97
|
75.08
|
76.35
|
78.12
|
77.24
|
70.74
|
59.49
|
38.00
|
...
|
|
1996
|
60.15
|
71.54
|
75.94
|
74.76
|
76.54
|
78.63
|
78.03
|
71.87
|
59.80
|
38.16
|
...
|
|
1997
|
61.41
|
72.91
|
77.43
|
74.94
|
76.63
|
78.94
|
78.08
|
73.51
|
60.73
|
39.50
|
...
|
|
1998
|
62.79
|
73.21
|
77.40
|
75.46
|
75.57
|
78.64
|
78.81
|
73.01
|
61.28
|
39.13
|
...
|
|
1999
|
61.12
|
73.45
|
77.00
|
75.97
|
76.20
|
78.26
|
78.93
|
74.03
|
61.83
|
38.83
|
...
|
|
2000
|
61.52
|
73.25
|
76.84
|
75.56
|
75.71
|
78.74
|
79.12
|
74.15
|
61.37
|
40.68
|
...
|
|
2001
|
59.38
|
72.97
|
75.86
|
75.45
|
76.09
|
78.11
|
78.46
|
74.14
|
61.70
|
43.54
|
...
|
|
2002
|
58.77
|
72.33
|
75.78
|
74.71
|
75.29
|
77.53
|
77.79
|
73.99
|
63.81
|
44.07
|
...
|
|
2003
|
56.54
|
70.94
|
74.48
|
73.92
|
74.47
|
77.41
|
78.56
|
74.72
|
65.46
|
45.33
|
45.33
|
|
2004
|
56.08
|
69.80
|
73.11
|
74.23
|
74.37
|
76.78
|
78.37
|
75.00
|
64.74
|
45.55
|
45.55
|
|
2005
|
57.41
|
69.39
|
74.29
|
75.52
|
74.78
|
77.22
|
78.21
|
74.97
|
64.46
|
45.77
|
45.77
|
|
2006
|
58.79
|
70.73
|
76.15
|
75.27
|
75.16
|
77.05
|
77.73
|
74.24
|
63.98
|
44.59
|
44.59
|
|
2007
|
59.12
|
71.85
|
77.94
|
74.49
|
75.52
|
76.78
|
77.12
|
73.65
|
63.94
|
44.18
|
44.18
|
|
2008
|
59.17
|
72.16
|
77.92
|
73.92
|
75.59
|
76.64
|
76.97
|
73.82
|
63.87
|
42.75
|
42.75
|
|
2009
|
59.09
|
72.73
|
77.65
|
73.53
|
75.82
|
76.45
|
76.91
|
73.84
|
63.81
|
42.40
|
42.40
|
|
2010
|
59.03
|
73.12
|
77.61
|
74.07
|
75.97
|
76.44
|
76.85
|
73.58
|
63.69
|
41.70
|
41.70
|
|
2011
|
58.98
|
73.22
|
77.83
|
75.50
|
75.78
|
76.67
|
76.84
|
73.26
|
63.51
|
41.63
|
41.63
|
|
2012
|
58.94
|
73.23
|
78.22
|
76.65
|
75.11
|
76.83
|
76.67
|
72.93
|
63.31
|
41.53
|
41.53
|
|
2013
|
58.92
|
73.29
|
78.62
|
77.36
|
74.58
|
77.10
|
76.62
|
72.75
|
63.07
|
41.48
|
41.48
|
|
2014
|
58.92
|
73.36
|
79.01
|
77.61
|
74.56
|
77.39
|
76.66
|
72.76
|
62.82
|
41.40
|
41.40
|
| 1Participation in the labor force for ages 65-NRA is assumed to be the same as that of ages 60-64. See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age—NRA." |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.